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Semafor Signals

Germany faces political turmoil as Europe braces for new Trump era

Updated Nov 7, 2024, 7:12am EST
Europe
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at a meeting briefing in Berlin
Annegret Hilde/Reuters
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The News

The collapse of Germany’s coalition government comes at a critical time for Europe, said analysts, as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House for a second presidential term.

On Wednesday German Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister and announced plans to hold a vote of confidence in January. He is expected to lose the vote, increasing the likelihood of a snap election early next year.

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The move splits the three parties in Berlin’s ruling coalition after months of paralysis and adds to the uncertainty facing both the country, and Europe more widely, after Trump’s victory.

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SIGNALS

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.

Germany insists it’s done more to prepare for a Trump presidency this time

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Sources:  
DW, Semafor

The German government barely bothered to make contact with the Trump camp ahead of the US vote, and that lopsidedness — Scholz cultivated close ties with Biden — will come back to bite, an expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations told DW. German officials, however, insist they’ve done more to prepare this time around, to avoid the kind of clashes witnessed between then-Chancellor Angela Merkel and Trump during his first term, Semafor reported. There’s not much time to get ready, though: The former president is better prepared to hit the ground running from day one, meaning Germany risks facing “serious challenges” off the bat, a member of the center-right Christian Democratic Union told Semafor.

…But domestic political turmoil won’t help matters

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Sources:  
Financial Times, Semafor

Dysfunction in Berlin, Europe’s most “indispensable nation,” is one of the reasons the European Union is so poorly prepared for a Trump presidency, the Financial Times’ Europe editor argued: Someone must take leadership to arm Ukraine and bolster the continent’s security, so the German government collapse could ultimately give way to a new political dawn. But it’s unlikely the threat posed by Trump — who has vowed to scale back the US’ commitment to NATO, and slap tariffs on European manufactured goods — will scare Germany into unity, a columnist argued in The New Statesman. That Scholz fired his finance minister as the results of the US election came in speaks volumes about the way Europe reacts to Trump: “[N]o statesmanship, no coordination, and pettiness,” he wrote.

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