The News
Democrats got shellacked on November 5th. But they’re nowhere near alone. Four years after the pandemic, governing dysfunction is the story of almost every democracy on the planet, with few examples defying the trend. On nearly every continent, opposition movements have charged ahead in polls, unseated incumbents or lodged in-some-cases historic election gains against a global backdrop of inflation and agitation.
The phenomenon is uniform across the Anglosphere nations. Jacinda Ardern’s once-dominant New Zealand Labour Party now sits on opposition benches. UK Labour dramatically ousted the Tories — and have already ceded back their lead in polls. Canada’s Conservatives are ready to deliver a catastrophic blow to Trudeau. And swirling in the maelstrom, at the center of it all: a new term for Donald Trump.
In the EU, Marine Le Pen’s nationalists still loom large in politics. Her National Rally scored lackluster gains in last summer’s legislative elections, but remains a competitive force with prospects for the future. In those same elections, Macron’s movement suffered a backslide. The resulting government, which relies on tacit support from Le Pen, has led to Macron’s worst approval polling yet.
Other incumbents across the continent are faring no better. Germany’s unpopular “traffic light coalition,” which brought together social democrats, the Green Party, and economic liberals, just collapsed, and snap elections could be soon. The Conservatives, which have shifted to the right under their leader, the former BlackRock executive Friedrich Merz, have a strong lead in polls. Nearby, the incumbent coalition in Czechia is failing. Formed to oust billionaire ex-PM Andrej Babis, government parties are now starkly unpopular, and Babis could re-emerge as prime minister after next year’s election.
In elections held in 2023 and 2024 respectively, nationalist forces placed first in elections in Austria and the Netherlands for the first time. But anti-incumbent activity isn’t entirely on the right: Polish nationalists found themselves tossed out of government last year, too.
Historic gains of all kinds emerged from the anti-incumbency backlash. Parties in South Africa and Botswana lost their governing majorities for the first time ever in elections held this year. In Botswana, the ruling party which had governed for nearly 60 years found itself reduced to just 4 seats in parliament.
Likewise, Japan’s center-right LDP shockingly witnessed its second-worst result ever last month. And in South Korea, a severely unpopular government has resulted in gains for the opposition and the ascendancy of the last presidential runner-up.
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Brad’s view
Nowhere has global anti-incumbency backlash been embodied more than in Argentina. Javier Milei, the arch-libertarian who ran on a platform of ripping up the government, was elected against a backdrop of staggering inflation for the country. The opposition deployed a familiar, and often successful, playbook against a Trump-like firebrand, attempting to convince the public of Milei’s radical character and highlighting extremist statements.
But Milei consolidated much of the opposition. Fear lost to frustration, as Milei swept to victory with a larger-than-expected margin, and immediately set about implementing a comprehensive plan to roll back Argentina’s social safety net.
With the victory of Trump, the message is clear: No one is safe. And nothing is off-limits. Anti-incumbency backlash is so intense, that it should be assumed anyone can be elected on its back, whether or not they fit our prior image of electability. A rising tide lifts all boats.
Notable
One post-pandemic government found itself re-elected easily this year: Mexico, under President AMLO. While defying political classification, the populist leader not only maintained high approval ratings throughout his presidency, but managed to transfer his popularity to his party, too. AMLO ally Claudia Sheinbaum, the former mayor of Mexico City, was elected by a larger margin than even AMLO himself, and has seen no sign yet of the backlash witnessed by other governing parties in Latin America. Unique in the region, Mexico doesn’t even have a major outlet for the far-right.