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With China’s annual Singles Day shopping festival, geared around Nov. 11, already several weeks in, analysts are watching to see if the promotional event betrays a little more about how consumers feel about the direction of the country’s economy.
So far, the festival, which began earlier than usual on Oct. 14, has seen modest growth, with marketing analysts predicting a 15% increase in sales this year compared to 2023.
The event seems “much calmer” this year, analysts told CNBC, with consumers choosing practical purchases, instead of a return to a pre-pandemic buying frenzy. Much of the growth in sales seems confined to more experiential brands, electronic appliances, and niche purchases like toys and collectibles.
The overall sentiment seems to reflect the broader economic picture: New data released Saturday shows the consumer price index, a key measure of inflation, barely rose in October and was down from September’s 0.4% increase, thanks to declining food prices, according to the country’s Statistics Bureau, with production prices also showing a deflationary trend.
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While the government has approved a 10 trillion yuan stimulus package Friday, most analysts expect that because the package doesn’t directly put more money into the economy, it will “require some time,” for consumer spending to rebound, an economist at China Everbright Bank told Reuters. Goldman Sachs forecasts that consumer inflation will hover at a low 0.8% next year, while producer prices may not turn positive until late 2025.
More stimulus efforts may be coming, many analysts have said, especially if Donald Trump’s campaign pledge to hike tariffs on all Chinese goods comes to pass.