The News
Welcome to the Global Hot List, our subjective, dynamic ranking of the races and political developments you should be paying attention to right now, compiled by world elections expert Brad Glasser.
This week: Trump’s election is the big red elephant in the room, but governments from Germany to South Korea are finding themselves pushed to their limits.
The List
1. USA – What happened?
Democrats are reeling from an election loss that, in hindsight, seemed predictable. Prescriptions for the party following its loss range from a focus on the influence of right-leaning podcasts, to tacking towards social conservatism in some areas, to re-emphasizing the party’s pro-worker, pro-welfare principles as advocated by Bernie Sanders. Whatever the case, past experience suggests the road ahead for Democrats — at least, for winning in 2028 — may be as simple as just biding their time until the other side makes mistakes that give them an opening and new leaders emerge on their own.
2. Germany – Lights out
Germany’s “traffic light coalition” is collapsing, suggesting new elections sooner than later. After Minister of Finance Christian Lindtner suggested new elections, Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired him, creating a crisis in the governing coalition that includes the Green Party, Lindtner’s FDP and Scholz’s Social Democrats. Snap elections will be held on February 23rd, well ahead of a scheduled vote in the fall, and suggest a right-wing shift with the conservative CDU and hardcore nationalist AfD party polling first and second respectively.
3. Japan – Internationalization
Japan’s latest election results suggest the country is showing signs of political polarization seen elsewhere in the world. The left-wing populist Reiwa Shinsengumi managed to triple its seat share in Japan’s lower house election, positioning itself as a relevant force among the opposition. On the opposite end of the spectrum, two far-right parties entered parliament for the first time: the Conservative Party of Japan and Sanseito. While these are still small parties across the board, the flagging fortunes of the long-dominant LDP and other relatively centrist parties could see more ideological rivals eventually expand their footholds further.
4. Botswana – New president
Botswana’s new president is pledging support for undocumented migrants, after taking over in the country’s first ever transition of power. Incoming president Duma Boko was congratulated by his predecessor, Mokgweetsi Masisi, who attended the inauguration and gave a speech marking the formal hand-off of power, the first in Botswana’s history of independence. Boko has pledged to naturalize undocumented workers from Zimbabwe despite lingering hostility towards migrants, saying “They do jobs that otherwise would not get done.”
5. South Korea – No apologies
South Korea’s president, more unpopular than ever, held a press conference to say he’s sorry for “whatever” scandal has upset voters. Recent reports have implicated his wife in corruption, bringing about his worst-ever approval ratings since taking office. “Whatever the case, I apologize,” said President Yoon Suk Yeol in a recent press conference, in which he “declined to give details” on what he was apologizing for. South Korean observers were baffled by the remarks, with Yoon elaborating that “If you tell me what specifically I did wrong, then I will apologize for that specific fact.”
6. Ecuador – Not Topic
A surging contender for Ecuador’s upcoming presidential election found himself disqualified over conflicts of interest. Jan Topic, a former military sniper who has expressed admiration for El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, polled as high as 15% in a recent CID Gallup poll. Topic will be excluded from February’s presidential election following a court ruling that determined he “improperly invested in companies holding state contracts,” leaving two major competitors in the race: incumbent president Daniel Noboa and last election’s runner-up, Luisa Gonzalez.
7. Spain – Blame game
Mass protests against a botched flood response in Spain are piling pressure on national and local governments. Residents of Valencia were not alerted to deadly floods in time, compounding unimaginable devastation for communities across the region. A blame game is now unfolding between the national government led by Socialist Party prime minister Pedro Sanchez, and Valencia’s regional administration, helmed by conservatives. The prime minister and regional governor were both pelted with mud during a visit to an affected area, and mass protests have erupted calling for the governor’s resignation.
8. Mauritius – Total defeat
The prime minister of Mauritius saw his snap election gamble dramatically backfire, as the opposition scored total victory despite a recent historic deal transferring Chagos sovereignty. Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth’s party won no seats in legislative elections, as his administration was rocked by “phone-tapping scandal” that stirred major campaign chaos and led to a botched social media ban by the government. As with elections all over the world, analysis of this vote placed an emphasis on dissatisfaction with cost-of-living issues.
9. Palau – Two rivalries
Palau’s election featured both a geopolitical rivalry and a family rivalry. The pro-US incumbent, Surangel Whipps Jr. was re-elected in a contest that pitted him against his brother-in-law, Thomas Remengesau Jr., who preceded him as president. Palau recognizes Taiwan, and the election falls against a backdrop of ensuing great power rivalry between the US and China in the Pacific.