The News
Ukraine’s intelligence agency accused Russia of spreading disinformation about an impending attack on Ukrainian cities, after various countries, including the US, Italy, Spain, and Greece closed their embassies in Kyiv amid concerns of a imminent, significant airstrike.
The US State Department said it was ”incredibly concerned″ about so-called “hybrid” attacks, which are essentially acts that don’t meet the bar of warfare, by Russia in Europe and elsewhere. Kyiv’s closest European allies, including Germany, France, Spain, and the UK issued a joint statement Tuesday also accusing Moscow of “systematically attacking” the continent’s security architecture and critical infrastructure.
Separately, the Biden administration announced a new security assistance package for Ukraine worth an estimated $275 million on Wednesday.
Ukraine also launched British-made missiles at Russian military targets for the first time, the Financial Times reported. The UK government declined to comment, citing “operational reasons.”
SIGNALS
Western allies take Putin’s nuclear threats with a pinch of salt
Whereas Ukraine has repeatedly called Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bluff on nuclear intimidation tactics, its allies have shown a readiness to fold in the face of blackmail, which would “set a disastrous precedent” for global security, a Ukraine expert argued for the Atlantic Council in September. This time around, Western officials are largely rejecting the threats as little more than empty saber-rattling, the Financial Times’ Brussels bureau chief reported, with some pointing out that Ukraine’s use of US-supplied weapons inside Russia would have already triggered a nuclear war if Putin was being serious. That said, there were “a few bleak-looking faces around the table,” one senior official at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro told the outlet. “Fair, given we were essentially discussing the end of the world.”
…But other threats could be growing
Hybrid attacks — which can include cyber-attacks, arson, sabotage, and even murder plots — may pose less of an existential threat than nuclear war, but are nevertheless difficult to defend because of the sheer number of possible targets and the Kremlin’s ability to claim plausible deniability for any attacks, The Guardian reported. NATO’s emphasis on building up resilience as the “first line” of deterrence and defense is welcome, but the very qualities that make its member states strong in the face of autocracy — such as the rule of law — also make collective action and decision-making more difficult when it comes to the “grey zone” of hybrid attacks, three experts argued for the Center for Strategic and International Studies.