The News
Ukraine said Russia struck its territory with an intercontinental ballistic missile on Thursday, in what would mark the first use of such a weapon in the war, but Moscow refused to comment and Western officials were reported as disputing Kyiv’s claim.
The missile carried conventional, rather than nuclear, warheads, although a Ukrainian government official said it was an attempt to “frighten the world with nuclear weapons.” Initial reports suggest the attack appears to not have impacted civilians significantly.
The strike follows Ukraine’s use of long-range cruise missiles to hit targets in Russia after its Western allies lifted restrictions on such attacks, raising fears of escalation by Moscow.
US President Joe Biden is planning to cancel $4.65 billion of Ukraine’s debt, Bloomberg reported, as part of a broader effort to boost support for Kyiv ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump who is expected to significantly reduce US aid.
SIGNALS
If true, the strike could be a ‘signal’ from Moscow
The use of an ICBM has yet to be confirmed. Both CBS News and ABC News cited unnamed Western officials as denying the Ukrainian claim, while the Kremlin has yet to comment. If true, however, the use of such a weapon would be “totally unprecedented,” a researcher at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research wrote on X, adding that deploying it wouldn’t make “a lot of sense” because of its relatively low accuracy and high cost. Another researcher concurred, writing the strike “might have a value as a signal.” “I would urge people to keep calm, not assume automatically that ‘intercontinental’ is something inherently and immediately dangerous,” he added. “But it should be taken seriously.”
Putin reportedly open to ceasefire with Trump
What appears like an escalation from Moscow comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly open to discussing a Ukraine ceasefire with Trump, according to Reuters. Putin apparently ruled out major territorial concessions or Kyiv joining NATO in such a deal. Trump has repeatedly claimed he’d put an end to the conflict once in office, though he has never specified how. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has previously expressed confidence that Trump would continue supporting Ukraine and end the war “sooner,” but a “grand bargain” that addresses the wants of both Russia and Ukraine might be difficult to reach, Russia expert Dimitri Simes told Reuters, “as the positions of the two sides are very far apart.”
Russia sees nuclear weapons as a fear tactic
If confirmed, the ICBM strike would come a few days after Putin lowered the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, a “long-planned move” in response to the US allowing Ukraine to fire long-range missiles into Russia, The New York Times noted. But for Putin, the change in doctrine may signal an attempt to “turn the world’s largest nuclear arsenal into something the world might actually fear again, giving him the global influence that his gas-and-war-economy so far cannot,” rather than an intention of actually following through. “Putin would still have to account for US and global responses and escalation management,” a nuclear expert told The Times, adding the US and NATO “are capable of deterring Russian nuclear employment, and restoring deterrence should Putin miscalculate.”