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Semafor Signals

Airlines prepare for record travel numbers on Thanksgiving

Nov 23, 2024, 11:35am EST
North America
The One World trace Center and the New York skyline are seen while United Airlines planes use the tarmac at Newark Liberty International Airport
Eduardo Munoz/File Photo/Reuters
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The News

A record number of people are expected to travel in the US during the Thanksgiving period this year, industry experts said, with flights set to finally return to pre-pandemic levels.

An estimated 2.8 million people will fly in the US every day between Nov. 22 and Dec. 2, one group said, up 5% compared with 2023. Bookings for international flights are also up 23% compared to Thanksgiving last year, data from the American Automobile Association data showed.

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In New York and New Jersey alone, a record 8.7 million people are expected to travel over the holiday week. To minimize disruption, the US Department of Transportation said it has authorized the use of airspace normally reserved for the military, and has met with airlines to ensure they are operating “realistic” flight schedules.

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SIGNALS

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.

Airlines’ revenues are looking up, but challenges remain

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Sources:  
Reuters, Bloomberg, The New York Times

The global airline industry raised its profit outlook in June, expecting to bring in $3 billion more than in 2023, as post-pandemic travel returns in full swing: “We are more bullish on airlines today than we’ve been in a long while,” an analyst told Reuters. US carriers United and American increased their profit targets in recent quarters, but challenges from high costs persist: Delta, for example, has scaled up its premium offering to counter the expenses that are biting into its margins, and airlines have reduced plans to introduce more seats. And there’s one notable exception to the airline industry’s comeback: loss-making low-cost carrier Spirit filed for bankruptcy after a failed merger with JetBlue.

CrowdStrike outage still fresh in the memory of carriers and passengers

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Sources:  
Federal Aviation Administration, Bloomberg
A chart showing the percentage of canceled flights in the US from 2021 to 2024.

Federal data shows US flight cancellations have trended down in 2024, even with the chaos caused by the July CrowdStrike cybersecurity outage. However, the negative impact on airlines it caused may be burned in the memory of travelers — and airlines — for years: Airlines have had to face the issues posed by their complex systems, which have in some cases stayed the same for decades, Bloomberg noted. These systems are “optimized for efficiency and profit,” WIRED wrote, which means lower prices for travelers, but can also make them prone to failure or collapse. “We are slowly migrating these systems,” American Airlines’ COO told Bloomberg, “because there are a lot of intricacies,” though he didn’t specify what the migration entailed.

US aviators hope for looser regulation under Trump

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Sources:  
The Associated Press, Airways Magazine

Some airline executives have shown optimism that the incoming Trump administration will lead to reduced scrutiny over airlines’ behavior, particularly a relaxation of the Biden administration’s push for greater consumer protections, fewer “junk” fees, and lower ticket prices for passengers. Trump’s pick for transportation secretary, former congressman and Fox Business host Sean Duffy, has advocated for improving infrastructure and investing in the transportation sector, Airways Magazine noted. Delta’s CEO described the change as “a breath of fresh air,” while Southwest’s chief executive said there was potential for a more “business-friendly” and “less aggressive” approach.

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