The News
Israel and Hezbollah are closing in on a deal to halt the 14-month-long fighting in Lebanon that could be finalized as soon as today, according to US and Israeli officials.
Israeli media reported that the war cabinet would likely approve a deal on Tuesday, while the Biden administration was decidedly more cautious: “We’re close,” White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby said. “Until you get everything done, you don’t have a deal.”
The US and France-brokered truce would bring some much-needed respite to Lebanon, which has been hammered by the war: Some 3,750 people have been killed, and more than a million displaced.
Israel carried out airstrikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Tuesday after issuing its biggest evacuation order yet, Reuters reported.
SIGNALS
Palestinians fear Israel will ramp up its military operations in Gaza
Reports of an imminent ceasefire in Lebanon have left Palestinians in Gaza feeling “abandoned and fearful” that Israel will renew its focus on the enclave, Arab News reported: “We are afraid the Israeli army will now have a free hand in Gaza,” a businessman in Gaza City said. But officials told The Times of Israel that the move could give fresh impetus to a ceasefire in Gaza by isolating Hamas and forcing it to the negotiating table: ““What Hamas wanted was support from Hezbollah and others. Once you cut the connection, you have the ability to reach a deal. It’s a strategic achievement,” an Israeli official said.
An achievement for Biden, but long term vision no closer to becoming reality
A ceasefire would be a “major achievement” for US President Joe Biden in the final weeks of his administration, which has so far been unsuccessful in bringing about an end to the year-long conflict in Gaza, Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant wrote. But even if a truce is agreed, a two-state solution — the US’ official objective in the region — is no closer to becoming a reality, the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft argued: The US has consistently provided both military assistance and diplomatic cover to Israel despite the Netanyahu government’s explicitly “expansionist” territorial agenda in both Gaza and the occupied West Bank.