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Semafor Signals

Israel-Lebanon truce wavers as France, Saudi call for talks on Palestinian state

Updated Dec 3, 2024, 2:55pm EST
Middle East
A photo of ruined buildings in Southern Lebanon
Stoyan Nenov/Reuters
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The News

Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah traded fire, raising worries that their ceasefire may already be at risk.

The truce, which came into effect last week, has been a much-needed bright spot in a region blighted by over a year of conflict: Tens of thousands have died and millions have been displaced across Lebanon and Gaza.

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In Gaza, residents are also bracing for a winter in which plummeting temperatures are expected to combine with floods of rainwater and sewage, the BBC reported.

On Tuesday, France and Saudi Arabia announced a joint effort to hold talks on a two-state solution in Israel and Palestine. French President Emmanuel Macron said he planned to host a conference on the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in June 2025.

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SIGNALS

Semafor Signals: Global insights on today's biggest stories.

The ceasefire was difficult to implement in the first place

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Sources:  
The New Arab, France 24, Al Jazeera

A cessation of fire was improbable in Lebanon from the get-go, because the agreement included “a lot of wishful thinking, and conflicting interpretations,” an Israeli political analyst told The New Arab. One clause allows Israel to act unilaterally if it perceives “a direct threat to its security” — how Israel determines what constitutes a direct threat affects the agreement’s success, France 24 added. A potential upside is the presence of a multinational commission, which includes the US and France, tasked with restoring order in case of violations, an Israeli peace negotiator told Al Jazeera: “It is a kindergarten. You have a teacher and the teacher may say to this guy, come back to the kindergarten and they will behave.”

Behind the scenes, US officials show concern

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Sources:  
CNN, Axios

In the US, officials didn’t show concern in public about the situation between Israel and Hezbollah: White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters that “sporadic strikes” were to be expected, while State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said the agreement had been successful, “broadly speaking.” But in private talks, US officials appeared more worried, Axios reported, with one saying Israel had been “playing a dangerous game.” Biden adviser Amos Hochstein reportedly warned Israel it was enforcing the ceasefire “too aggressively,” and that it should allow space for the monitoring enforcement system to begin working.

In Gaza, Trump’s push for a ceasefire may reignite talks

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Sources:  
+972 Magazine, BBC, Financial Times, Donald Trump/Truth Social

Since the Lebanon truce was announced, Gazans have been wondering when their turn for peace will come, +972 Magazine reported. But the Lebanese situation is different, the BBC’s international editor argued: The war in Gaza is not only about Israeli hostages and border security, it’s “also about revenge, about Benjamin Netanyahu’s political survival, and his government’s absolute rejection of Palestinian aspirations for independence.” However, US President-elect Donald Trump’s push for an agreement before he takes office may reignite momentum, at least from the Israeli side, the Financial Times reported — especially after Trump warned there would be “all hell to pay” if Hamas did not release the hostages it’s holding.

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