The News
In a letter to NATO states, Ukrainian officials said Kyiv would not accept anything less than full NATO membership to guarantee the country’s future security ahead of the alliance meeting this week.
The alliance has previously said Ukraine is on an “irreversible” path into NATO, but a formal invitation has not been issued, and its 32 members are divided over the possibility.
Germany’s foreign minister said Ukrainian membership remains a matter of debate, and would be considered alongside other “elements of peace,” like troop withdrawals and Ukraine’s reconstruction. NATO chief Mark Rutte stressed that the alliance’s gathering this week would focus on military aid to Kyiv and not the outlines of a potential settlement.
SIGNALS
Territory-for-peace model gains momentum
Ex-NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg joined a growing chorus of foreign policy experts in mooting a territory-for-peace deal, a sign of the idea’s growing legitimacy. “If the ceasefire line means that Russia continues to control all occupied territories, this does not mean that Ukraine has to give up the territory forever,” Stoltenberg told Table Media in a recent interview. Trump’s nominee for Ukraine and Russia envoy has echoed this sentiment, suggesting Ukraine commit to regaining occupied territory through diplomatic rather than military means. However, the country’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has suggested that while Kyiv would be open to only parts of the country joining NATO, seemingly conceding some might remain under Russian control, he stressed that NATO would have to recognize Ukraine’s full borders.
Russia sends mixed messages over possible peace talks
Russian officials have been increasingly open about the possibility of negotiations, perhaps setting expectations for what peace terms Moscow might accept. Valentina Matviyenko, a senior Russian lawmaker, told a pro-Kremlin newspaper that an effort to start peace negotiations could more likely than not come in the next year. Russia’s foreign minister also said they are “ready for negotiations,” but warned that the West should not use a possible ceasefire to surge weapons to Ukraine. But oligarch Konstantin Malofeyev, a staunch supporter of the war, told the Financial Times that President Vladimir Putin would likely reject peace proposals floated in the West. “For the talks to be constructive, we need to talk not about the future of Ukraine, but the future of Europe and the world.”
NATO beefs up protection from sabotage
Expanding protections against Russian and Chinese sabotage and cyberattacks is one of the key priorities on the table at this week’s NATO meeting, after a recent string of suspected sabotage incidents across Europe. NATO chief Mark Rutte said the alliance would improve intelligence sharing and boost protections of crucial infrastructure to counter the threats. The alliance aims to set up a fleet of unmanned boats to monitor undersea infrastructure connecting Europe’s energy and communications networks, Defense News reported. While some experts and officials have criticized NATO’s response to Russian sabotage as too tame, a senior German official said the hostile activities could eventually lead NATO to invoke the Article 5 mutual defense clause, which could trigger a more robust response.