The News
Syria’s rebel coalition — which has made lightning progress in a surprise offensive — aims to overthrow the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the group’s leader told CNN.
The remarks make clear that fighters’ advances in recent days to take control of the key cities of Aleppo and Hama, and make advances on Homs, are part of a larger effort to unseat the country’s president, who had largely been seen to have won Syria’s long-running civil war.
SIGNALS
Assad has been here before, but this time may be different
It’s not the first time Assad’s forces have “melted away” in the face of rebel attacks — it has happened several times over the last decade. But this time “feels different,” a geopolitical risk expert wrote for UK think tank Chatham House, as the collapse comes at an unexpected time, when international attention has turned away from Syria. The rebels’ swift takeover of Aleppo, Syria’s second-biggest city, was also “unprecedented,” with the regime putting up less of a fight than expected. And compared to when the rebels controlled Aleppo a decade ago, this time the group came “better trained, well-armed, and coordinated,” featuring drones and a “sophisticated media strategy,” Semafor’s Gulf editor Mohammed Sergie noted.
Russia’s prestige and military power is at stake
The rapid advance of rebel forces is threatening to ruin one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “proudest achievements,” The Washington Post wrote: His 2015 campaign to support the installation of Assad’s regime. Putin has repeatedly pledged support for Syria since the rebels began their latest attack, but analysts have questioned whether the conflict in Ukraine has left Russia without the resources to intervene militarily, Al-Monitor noted. For Putin, there’s more at stake than prestige, The Post added: He has maintained a military stronghold in Syria, including two strategic naval and air bases that have previously allowed Russia to “project its military power in the eastern Mediterranean and to claim a role as a world power with vital regional interests, challenging American supremacy.”
The rebels’ sudden success may leave them more vulnerable
Analysts have questioned whether the rebels’ sudden success could, counterintuitively, leave them more vulnerable by forcing them to administer huge tracts of newly acquired territory when they are already struggling with supply lines, The Wall Street Journal noted. And if they continue advancing toward the city of Homs, they will encounter a number of new issues, the Atlantic Council added: They will have to go through areas loyal to Assad before reaching Homs, a challenge to their local support, and most importantly, their advances might break the restraint of Russia, which has so far only conducted a few strikes against rebels to avoid “overextension,” the Council noted.