The News
The UN Security Council is today set to discuss the shock overthrow of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, a move that has buoyed many in the country and upended geopolitics.
Huge numbers were freed from the regime’s notorious prisons — a video showed rebels opening jail cells, with a glimpse of a toddler in one — while many of the millions of Syrians refugees abroad began contemplating heading home.
Assad’s fall leaves significant questions, however, about the future leadership and regional dynamics.
SIGNALS
Syrian rebels seek to appear more tolerant
The rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that overthrew Assad is trying to present itself as moderates who would eschew both the excesses of his regime and their own reputation as hardline Islamists. Despite its origins in Al-Qaeda, the group has disavowed the global terror network and pledged to respect minority and women’s rights: Observers noted that the Sunni fighters had avoided violence in the vicinity of a prominent Damascus shrine that was a rallying cry for Shiite militias. Still, activists were skeptical, and experts warned that Syria’s new rulers would need to be particularly cognizant of the trauma facing a population emerging from six decades of dictatorship.
Global reactions demonstrate tentative glee in the West and concern in Russia
Much of the world has taken a tentative approach to the new Syrian leaders, while wholeheartedly celebrating the fall of Assad: As one refugee told The Associated Press: “Anything is better than Bashar.” The UN human rights chief said Monday that there is now a ”huge chance″ for inclusive dialogue on Syria’s political transition, while US President Joe Biden called the moment one of “opportunity” as well as “risk and uncertainty.” However, Russia — who helped prop up Assad’s power and is reportedly giving him asylum — has condemned the takeover by a “terrorist group,” and called for Monday’s emergency UN Security Council meeting.
The future of the region now even more uncertain
Sunday’s takeover was perhaps “the most momentous upheaval” in the Middle East since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel, The New York Times wrote. There are major questions going forward: Will Iranians, weakened by the fall of their proxy groups Hamas and Hezbollah, seek to open negotiations with the more Russia-friendly US President-elect Donald Trump, or will they reach for a nuclear bomb? The answers will determine whether Assad’s fall marks an era of rebuilding for Syria or a “prelude to more military action.” Meanwhile, other Middle Eastern powers have attempted to ease the transition: Qatar has been aiding the implementation of a temporary government in Syria, to “prevent it from descending into chaos.”