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The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has been met with jubilation in Syria, with many expressing hope that, after 13 years of a devastating civil war and economic hardship, the country can now begin the process of reconstruction.
Syria’s economy shrunk by 85% between 2011 and 2023 amid civil war and global sanctions designed to cripple the Assad regime. It’s unclear whether those sanctions will be lifted or changed, and the exact cost of rebuilding Syria — once estimated to be at least $250 billion in 2021 — is also uncertain, in part because the country has been so isolated from international scrutiny for so long.
As attention turns to what will come next for the country, regional players like Turkey could push for a more stable Syria in order to boost the regional economy, analysts said.
SIGNALS
Reconstruction will take years, hampered by lingering sanctions
It could take as much as 10 years for Syria’s gross domestic product — a measure of the size of the economy — to return to its 2011 level, DW reported, although analysts warned that the timeline “could worsen in the event of any further political instability.” Syria’s economy was heavily dependent on oil and agriculture before 2011, and both have been crippled by international sanctions and civil war. The restrictions will likely remain in place, at least for now, the outlet wrote, while the US and other nations wait to see how the transition government takes shape. However, keeping the sanctions in place amounts to “pulling the rug out from Syria just as it tries to stand,” an International Crisis Group analyst argued.
Syria’s neighbors could stand to benefit most
The overthrow of Assad’s regime creates “a rare opportunity for regional economic growth,” particularly for Syria’s neighbors Turkey and Jordan, Israeli tech and business news site CTech wrote. Turkey, which hosts millions of Syrian refugees, could see some relieving of pressure on its stretched domestic services, as well as a new source of business for its construction companies. Markets reflected the optimism: Turkish construction firms saw their stock prices rise as much as 10% following the Syrian regime collapse, the outlet reported. Meanwhile, Jordan, which previously considered Syria a key trade partner, could resume its role as a trade transit hub between North African countries and Gulf States to supply Syria with fuel and other critical resources.
Iran scrambles to solve Syrian debt
The toppling of Assad’s regime has sparked a debate in Tehran as to whether the new Syrian administration will repay the country’s debts to Iran, Gulf geopolitics news site Amwaj Media wrote, which some Iranian officials have estimated may be more than $30 billion. Assad’s ouster and the weakening of Tehran’s proxies in the region could amplify calls inside Iran to cut funding to groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon “and instead spend the country’s resources on its own population,” the outlet wrote. Iran’s foreign ministry is already working to establish diplomatic ties to the transition government. “The signaling from Iran is apparent: while no one expects business as usual, there is an Iranian desire to maintain at least some of the country’s longstanding interests in Syria.”