The News
Ukraine faces its most difficult winter of the war so far, experts warned.
Russia is increasing the pace of its offensive, pushing back Kyiv’s forces on several fronts and advancing up to six miles a day, Radio Free Europe reported, while Ukraine lacks the troops and air defenses to stabilize the front lines.
The longer-term future is also worrying, as Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency is raising fears that Washington will scale back support. That said, the president-elect enjoys record levels of support among Ukrainians, according to a poll commissioned by New Europe Center NGO.
Some 44.6% trust Trump, up from 10% in 2023. “This high level of support shows Ukraine expects clearer and more decisive policy towards Ukraine from the new U.S. administration,” the NGO said in a statement.
A Polish defense minister told Bloomberg that Europe “is in a leadership crisis” and needs to step up on Ukraine’s defense, calling particularly on Germany to boost military spending, and said the European Union should work together to finance arms purchases.
SIGNALS
NATO members seem more optimistic about policing peace than fighting a war
The sentiment toward Ukraine at the most-recent NATO foreign minister meeting in Brussels could only be described as “grim,” Radio Free Europe reported, with Ukraine’s foreign minister admitting the situation “is really very challenging. And I am [being] very diplomatic now.” Kyiv pushed again for immediate NATO membership, but the suggestion was quickly “nipped in the bud.” Instead, diplomats are already looking ahead to potential peace talks in 2025, with several officials confirming media reports that NATO countries are considering sending peace-keeping forces to Ukraine to help uphold any eventual ceasefire agreement.
Unclear if Russia would agree to end the war
It’s not clear whether President Vladimir Putin would agree to a ceasefire while Russia’s forces are gaining ground. Several senior Russian officials said Tuesday that Moscow would not end the campaign “until all the objectives set by the president and commander-in-chief have been achieved,” Sky News reported. With Donald Trump expected to cut Ukraine aid and threatening to withdraw US support for NATO, experts are increasingly concerned that any deal that cedes Ukrainian territory to Russia would ultimately empower Putin: “If Russia succeeds in its aggression, the Baltic states would be next in line,” two military analysts wrote in The Atlantic. German officials, meanwhile, have indicated Russia could be ready to attempt an assault on NATO “by the end of the decade,” Bloomberg reported.