Growing calls to lift sanctions on Syria after regime overthrow

It’s risky but essential to give rebel groups like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — proscribed as a terrorist organization by many countries — the benefit of the doubt due to their role in the overthrow of Assad and popularity among many Syrians, a Middle East expert argued for Chatham House. Crucially, “there’s no room for meddling or spoiling now that the chief spoilers Russia and Iran are in retreat,” he wrote. Still, a “swift’ delisting of HTS could be dangerous, and it would be better for countries like the US and UK to engage the group covertly through their intelligence services until there is a clearer picture of its aims, a terrorism analyst argued for UnHerd.

A blueprint for transition already exists in the form of the UN Action Group for Syria’s final communiqué, outlined in Geneva some 12 years ago, a diplomacy expert wrote for the Brookings Institution. Its adoption is admittedly a “long shot,” he said, but the document offers principles and guidelines that could serve as the “first line of defense against Syria’s current acute fractionalization,” and prevent the country from falling into chaos. The most likely scenario is one of gradual stabilization, where Western countries support reconstruction on condition of adherence to democratic norms, think-tank Beyond the Horizon wrote.