The News
Russia will prioritize gaining control over the Ukrainian territory it annexed in 2022 but has remained under Kyiv, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said Monday.
The agenda for 2025 will be “to ensure victory” in the war in Ukraine, Belousov said at a meeting of Russia’s defense ministry board, adding that Ukraine still controls parts of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.
Russia will also ramp up its domestic defense to prepare for “a possible military conflict with NATO in Europe in the next decade,” he said.
Speaking at the same meeting, President Vladimir Putin said Russia has the “strategic initiative” on the battlefield in Ukraine, and that the West is pushing Russia toward “the red line.”
“Moscow cannot help but respond,” he warned.
SIGNALS
Russia expected to make slow progress on the battlefield in 2025
While the potential for peace negotiations and doubt over future levels of US support have created considerable uncertainty as to where the war goes from here, the most likely scenario is that Russia will continue making slow progress, analysts told The New Voice of Ukraine. Some experts are more pessimistic about Kyiv’s prospects, with one telling The Guardian there is a “a possibility that the front might collapse,” as Ukrainian forces stretch thin along a 600-mile frontline. Moscow likely has enough military stores to keep the pressure on Kyiv in 2025, but from 2026 on, it will struggle to replace destroyed equipment, researchers at the Royal United Services Institute in London argued.
Putin warns of limits to defense spending
Russia’s defense spending has risen to 6.3% of its total GDP, and President Vladimir Putin warned Monday that “we cannot pump up these expenses to infinity.” Russia’s military spending has distorted the entire economy, caused labor shortages in non-military industries and made it all but impossible for the central bank to quell rampant inflation. Soldiers’ salaries have increased by 50% since September, as the Kremlin has been forced to increase pay-outs in order to replenish its ranks. The war will exact a greater effect on the economy in the coming year, a former Russian deputy energy minister said. Putin will have “to choose between sticking with high interest rates and watching industries collapse or letting inflation run wild.”
The Kremlin prepares for possible conflict with NATO
Russia will boost its nuclear deterrence, developing unmanned weapons systems, and improving military training in preparation for a possible conflict against NATO, the defense minister said. European countries fear Russia will launch a massive buildup of troops along NATO borders if the war in Ukraine is resolved, with Estonian intelligence warning Moscow could double its military footprint near the Baltics and Finland, increasing the risk of a lightning attack. One European official told Semafor that while the bloc is slowly boosting its own defensive readiness, it is unprepared for such a Russian build-up in the next three to four years, although NATO members are mulling plans to boost defense spending.