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Semafor Signals

The EU’s two biggest economies are grappling with political uncertainty

Updated Dec 16, 2024, 10:57am EST
Europe
An image of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Liesa Johannssen/Reuters.
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The News

The European Union’s heavyweights France and Germany are grappling with political challenges, with the former hit by a credit ratings downgrade and the latter a government confidence vote.

French leaders have struggled to pass a budget in the face of far-right opposition, with a third prime minister in a year picking up the pieces from President Emmanuel Macron’s summer snap elections that saw centrist and moderate parties lose huge support.

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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, meanwhile, lost a confidence vote Monday, paving the way for February elections that will likely see him ousted from power. The verdicts on his rule so far have not been pretty: “It wasn’t all bad,” was the best Die Zeit could come up with.

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France’s new prime minister has the same problems as the old prime minister

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Sources:  
Le Monde, The Guardian, Politico

France’s political landscape is defined by strife, with French outlet Le Monde arguing that now is the time to “get a grip.” President Emmanuel Macron, who is struggling to hold onto power, has picked centrist François Bayrou as his third prime minister of the year, but all the old problems remain: The far right is ascendant, the centrists have lost acres of political ground, and the government is in a deadlock. Despite that, Marine Le Pen’s far right National Rally — responsible for toppling the last government — may yet come around: After meetings with Bayrou, Le Pen said she felt “heard” by the new leader.

France, Germany are mired in economic woes

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Sources:  
ING, Euronews

Germany narrowly missed falling into recession this summer, while France has the highest deficit among Eurozone economies, so it is perhaps no surprise that disagreements over their respective budgets have pushed their governments toward collapse. With Germany unable to hold an election until February and France until June 2025, both countries have generated a “political vacuum” in Europe, Euronews wrote. Unstable leadership could also hamper the bloc’s effort to address sputtering competitiveness and the threat of trade tariffs from both China and the US, and Russian aggression on its borders.

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