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US allies respond to Trump’s rhetoric on annexing Greenland and the Panama Canal, wildfires spring u͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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January 8, 2025
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The World Today

  1. Allies respond to Trump
  2. Bolsonaro’s raised hopes
  3. LA’s sudden wildfire
  4. The decline of Iran
  5. Sudan genocide accusation
  6. Global race for lithium
  7. Asian carmakers buoyant
  8. AI’s economic impacts
  9. High street veterans upbeat
  10. Explaining the universe

The Chinese real-estate crisis and its impact on soccer, and a recommendation of a new take on Tchaikovsky.

1

Responding to Trump

Donald Trump
Carlos Barria/File Photo/Reuters

US allies used differing strategies to respond to aggressive rhetoric from President-elect Donald Trump, ranging from denunciation to positivity. In the former camp, Canada’s outgoing leader said there is “not a snowball’s chance in hell” of his country being absorbed by the US as Trump had suggested, while Panama’s foreign minister said his country’s control of its eponymous canal — which Trump has not ruled out seizing by force — was “non-negotiable.” By contrast, Denmark’s prime minister put Trump’s interest in taking over Greenland in an upbeat light, saying she welcomed US investment in the territory. Others were girding themselves for the challenge: The European Union’s industry chief told Bloomberg the bloc must prepare to defend itself against US trade pressure.

For more on Trump’s return, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. →

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2

Bolsonaro’s improving fortunes

Jair Bolsonaro
Adriano Machado/File Photo/Reuters

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s fortunes may be improving two years after his supporters stormed through the country’s capital, leading to dozens of arrests and political sanctions. The protests — inspired by the Jan. 6, 2021, storming of the US Capitol and egged on by Bolsonaro — led to him being barred from running for office until at least 2030. However, his party remains the biggest in Congress, where it is attempting to approve a bill pardoning rioters, while Donald Trump’s return to the White House also offers a boost. The former Brazilian leader told Folha de S. Paulo that Trump’s election victory was a “very important step” in his own “dream” of returning to the presidency.

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3

Thousands flee LA wildfires

A chart showing the increase in billion-dollar weather disasters in the US in the past four decades

A state of emergency was declared and more than 30,000 people were ordered to evacuate after wildfires swept through Los Angeles suburbs. High winds fanned and spread what began as a small fire in the Palisades region, one of California’s most exclusive areas. Various celebrities were among those evacuated or helping firefighters: Several movie premieres were delayed, including that of Golden Globe winner Emilia Pérez, and the fire spread to the grounds of the famous Getty Museum. Climate change has created drier conditions and earlier snowmelt in California, increasing wildfire frequency, although changing forest management programs may also be a factor.

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4

Iran’s dwindling options

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian
Iran’s Presidential website/WANA Handout via Reuters

Iraq’s prime minister visited Tehran, reportedly to deliver a message on behalf of US President-elect Donald Trump over Iran’s regional ambitions, showcasing the Islamic Republic’s heavily curtailed power. Tehran had been a heavy hitter in the Middle East, but the weakening of its proxy groups Hezbollah and Hamas and the removal of Syria’s dictator alongside a domestic energy crisis have left it a shell of its former self: Baghdad is far from being a pliant ally in the way that Damascus was. “It is hard to think of a country that has lost as much influence in as short a time as has Iran,” the president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations wrote in Foreign Affairs.

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5

US accuses Sudan’s RSF of genocide

A chart showing the collapse of the Sudanese economy

The US accused Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and its proxies of having committed genocide in the Darfur region. Sudan’s army and the RSF both face accusations of mass atrocities in the country’s civil war, and the US announcement is a blow to the RSF’s attempts to burnish its image abroad, Reuters reported. The war — which has been largely overshadowed by the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East — has led to the world’s biggest displacement crisis and prompted the first famine declaration in years. Experts say sanctions on the RSF’s backers, notably the UAE, are required to end the conflict. “The current approach… is failing,” a former lecturer at the National University of Sudan wrote in Foreign Policy.

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6

New lithium finds

A chart showing the world’s biggest lithium producers

New lithium discoveries in both the US and China offered the prospect of reshaping the geopolitical race for the mineral which is key to the global green energy transition. One was found along the border between the American states of Nevada and Oregon, potentially holding as much as 40 million metric tons of lithium, while Chinese state media said the country had found reserves that upped its share of global lithium supplies from 6% to 16.5%, although details were scant. Lithium is critical in battery manufacturing, but geological exploration for it has been limited until recently, compared to oil and gas.

For more on the energy transition, subscribe to Semafor’s Net Zero newsletter. →

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7

Asia’s upstart automakers

A chart showing the best selling EV models in the first half of 2024

Upstart Asian carmakers set buoyant targets, underscoring a shift in the automotive sector as it grapples with the transition to electric vehicles. Chinese manufacturer Chery forecast 13% growth in car sales in the year ahead, and compatriot Geely sees its sales figure rising to 5 million in 2027 from 3 million last year. EV behemoth BYD, meanwhile, recently reported record sales. Elsewhere, Vietnamese EV maker VinFast plans to double its production capacity, Nikkei reported. The shifting sands of automotive sales have implications beyond legacy carmakers: They represent “a ‘soft power’ coup” for Beijing in particular, by positioning it as a clean tech leader, a Japan Times columnist noted.

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Live Journalism

Join us for our largest convening at Davos yet, featuring a world-class lineup of live journalism at the World Economic Forum 2025. Semafor editors will engage with industry leaders to discuss key themes, including global finance, blockchain, AI in the Gulf, Africa’s growth trajectory, and much more.

Explore the schedule and request invitations to attend Semafor sessions at Davos. →

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8

The economy shifts as AI grows

A chart showing forecast global revenue from generative AI

Investors rushed to back artificial intelligence ever more strongly even as other industries expressed concern over the technology’s impacts on jobs. The AI company Anthropic is expected to raise $2 billion in funding at a $60 billion valuation, tripling its value since last year. Rivals OpenAI, xAI, and Perplexity also saw huge recent rises. The rise of AI is causing rapid change throughout the economy: The stock-photo giants Getty and Shutterstock plan to merge, creating a huge image library in the face of competition from AI image-generation tools, and the growth of robotics has led groups as disparate as dockworkers, cooks, factory workers, and window cleaners to fear that their jobs will be automated away.

For more on the world of AI, subscribe to Semafor’s Tech newsletter. →

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9

High-street veterans pivot to ecommerce

A Next storefront
Wikimedia Commons

Venerable British high street stores are thriving despite fears that the internet would render them obsolete. Next, a clothing retailer founded in 1864, has seen its share price and revenues rise over the last 12 months, despite headwinds for British retail. Its fellow veteran Marks & Spencer (est. 1884) has also had a good year. The Financial Times’ Lex column noted that both, like other retail groups, have invested in ecommerce and thus pivoted with the times: Around the world, physical stores have increasingly become showrooms for online offerings rather than acting as the sales point themselves.

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10

Particle accelerator may explain universe

The European Spallation Source
Wikimedia Commons

A new particle accelerator coming online next year could help explain why there is something, rather than nothing, in the universe. The European Spallation Source will be the world’s most powerful generator of neutrons, chargeless particles in the center of atoms. It may also generate rare antimatter versions. Physicists believe that the big bang generated equal amounts of antimatter and matter, but since the two annihilate each other when they meet, it is unclear why any matter — and thus the universe — exists at all. This asymmetry is one of the greatest mysteries of physics, the Financial Times’ science commentator noted.

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Flagging
  • Taiwan’s military holds military preparedness drills ahead of the Lunar New Year.
  • The divisive internet influencer Andrew Tate appears in court in Romania over a human trafficking case.
  • William Tell holds its London premiere.
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Semafor Stat
8

The number of Chinese Super League soccer titles held by Guangzhou FC, which has been disbanded after failing to pay mounting debt . The collapse of China’s most successful club — owned by Evergrande, once one of the world’s biggest home builders — reflects the country’s real estate debacle: According to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal, China’s real estate crunch has destroyed $18 trillion of household wealth tied up to property, almost double that wiped out in the 2008-2009 US financial crisis.

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Semafor Recommends

Tchaikovsky’s The Seasons, by Bruce Liu. The Canadian pianist’s take on these 12 short pieces by the Russian great, each representing a month of the Russian year, “reveals a different side of Tchaikovsky,” according to The Classic Review. Liu’s “absence of showmanship” lets the music speak for itself and his “phrasing and dynamic nuances evoke a fragile wistfulness.” The reviewer “found myself yearning for a bit more raw excitement” but “minor quibbles aside, Liu… allows his artistic maturity and sincerity to take center stage.” Listen to The Seasons on Spotify.

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Semafor Spotlight
Jason Lee/Reuters

China, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, is set to unveil its first emissions reduction roadmap with new climate targets in the coming weeks, Xiaoying You reported. “This is a good opportunity [for China] to propose more ambitious goals, contrasting the likely inaction by the US in reducing its emissions,” a principal of a Beijing-based carbon reduction think tank told You.

For more on China’s influence on the global clean energy transition, subscribe to Semafor’s Net Zero newsletter. →

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