Flagship

Israel, Hamas agree to Gaza truce

Israel and Hamas agreed to a temporary ceasefire, opening a path to end 15 months of intense fighting in Gaza that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians. The agreement, which the Israeli cabinet is yet to approve, is set to take effect Sunday and see the phased release of 33 Israeli hostages, as well as Palestinian prisoners, while Israel will pull its troops from densely populated areas in Gaza. US President Joe Biden took credit for the monthslong negotiations, but analysts also pointed to the incoming Trump administration’s efforts to pressure Israel on the deal. Still, the agreement is but “a fragile reprieve” lasting just six weeks, Bloomberg noted, and celebrations in Gaza were “cautious,” The Guardian reported.

Ukraine peace deal could take months

A peace deal for Ukraine would take months to work out, advisers to Donald Trump told Reuters. While the president-elect has promised a quick resolution to the nearly three-year war, analysts as well as his associates now forecast a drawn-out timeline: Hopes for a deal within Trump’s first 100 days in office are “way, way too optimistic,” a former US ambassador to Kyiv said. As Trump’s inauguration approaches, Ukraine is responding more aggressively to attacks on its energy infrastructure; Kyiv this week launched its biggest aerial assault on Russian territory since the invasion. “Ukraine doesn’t have much left to lose at this point,” a Russian security expert said. “So, they can just go ahead and take the gloves off.”

Key US inflation metric cools

US inflation ticked up in December, but a key metric measuring only “core” costs cooled. In the last inflation report of President Joe Biden’s term, the core consumer price index — which excludes volatile food and energy prices, making it a preferred indicator for many economists — eased for the first time in six months. While inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the cooling boosted expectations of an interest rate cut this year, leading US bond yields to drop after a surge beginning in early January sparked global economic worries. The latest data could relieve pressure on overseas bond markets, too, analysts said: UK yields also tumbled Wednesday.

TikTok plans US shutdown

TikTok is reportedly planning to shut off access for US users starting Sunday, when a federal ban will take effect unless the Supreme Court intervenes to save the app. By abruptly cutting off Americans’ access to the platform — a US law passed last year only required the app to halt downloads — TikTok “will bring home the impact of the ban immediately,” The Information wrote. Speculation has since risen over whether TikTok’s Chinese parent company ByteDance would sell the app, and to whom, a move that would avert a ban. TikTok suggested it plans to maintain its US operations even if it is banned, telling employees Tuesday that they would still have jobs next week, The New York Times reported.

Rubio previews hawkish China stance

Donald Trump’s nominee for secretary of state sharply criticized China during his confirmation hearing Wednesday, previewing his expected approach to Beijing. China has “cheated, hacked and stolen” its way to global power, Sen. Marco Rubio said, adding that Washington should make clear to Beijing that the costs of a Taiwan invasion would be too high. Rubio, who is likely to be confirmed as the top US diplomat, is also looking to make inroads in Latin America — a difficult task given increased Chinese investment there, The Economist noted. But Trump’s increasingly close ties to US CEOs with financial interests in China could potentially restrain hawks like Rubio, The Atlantic wrote.

Biden’s latest chip rules

The US unveiled measures Wednesday aimed at stopping blacklisted Chinese firms from accessing advanced chips. The new rules encouraging chipmakers including TSMC and Samsung to more diligently scrutinize customers follow an incident in which TSMC-made chips were secretly diverted to the blacklisted Huawei. The regulations follow a flurry of last-minute measures from the Biden administration to curtail China’s tech ambitions: The US this week finalized rules to effectively ban Chinese cars, and restricted chip sales to much of the world, hoping to cut off Beijing’s access. But the actions against China may end up benefiting the incoming president more than bolstering Joe Biden’s legacy, one expert told Reuters: “He’s giving Trump a lot of leverage.”

Japan tourism reaches record high

A record number of foreign tourists — nearly 37 million — visited Japan in 2024. A weak yen and global post-pandemic demand contributed to the surge, which is set to persist through this year. But the country is also struggling to handle the crush of arrivals: Locals have complained about an influx of foreigners on public transportation, in restaurants, and at tourist attractions. High demand for hotel rooms in major cities is also pricing out Japanese business travelers; some companies are pondering moving offices or holding corporate retreats in less crowded regions to avoid the tourists, The Japan Times reported. Local governments are taking action, too: The ancient capital Kyoto proposed raising hotel taxes to as much as $63 per night.

Moving beyond identifying barriers to achieving practical, scalable interventions — The Next 3 Billion at Davos will discuss emphasizing collaboration between public and private sectors to mobilize resources and technology for global good.

Semafor’s Yinka Adegoke will moderate a conversation with Phuti Mahanyele-Dabengwa, CEO of Naspers South Africa, and Simi Nwogugu, CEO, Junior Achievement Africa to discuss digital upskilling and inclusion.

Jan. 23, 2025 | Davos, Switzerland | Request Invitation

US deaths to surpass births by 2033

Deaths in the US will outnumber births by 2033, seven years earlier than previously thought. A government report said birth rates had slowed faster than expected, and with lower immigration the population would start to shrink within eight years. Aging populations are an increasingly global concern: One study forecast that annual dementia diagnoses in the US could double to 1 million by 2060, while a McKinsey report said that two-thirds of the world’s population lives in countries with fertility rates below replacement levels. The pressure on working-age groups to support retirees, especially in the rich world and China, will become unsustainable. “The current calculus of economies cannot support existing income and retirement norms,” the McKinsey report said. “Something must give.”

Scientists criticize BMI metric

The body mass index should be abandoned for a more nuanced measure of obesity, a group of global researchers proposed. The controversial BMI is determined by calculating the ratio of weight to height: Between 18.5 and 24.9 is considered healthy, while more than 30 is obese. But the BMI metric is flawed, the scientists argued: For instance, it might class a weightlifter as obese, because it only considers weight and height, not fat levels. They recommended using other measures, such as waist-height ratios or medical tests, to assess fat, not just weight. However, some experts argued that overhauling the obesity definition would be time-consuming, and confuse a public that “likes and needs simple messages.”

Brody film sparks brutalism debate

A new film is resurfacing a debate over the controversial “brutalist” style of architecture. The Brutalist, starring Adrien Brody as an architect, is an Oscars frontrunner after a Golden Globes win. Brutalism involves “extensive use of concrete” and stark, hard-edged forms, Artnews reported, and is divisive: Incoming US President Donald Trump banned its use in federal buildings during his first term, although Joe Biden overturned the order. Brutalism is low-cost, and architects like that it reveals buildings’ true materials and nature, rather than hiding them. But it is usually unpopular with the public. One resident described the FBI’s brutalist Washington, DC headquarters as “a prison with windows, just a concrete slab stuck in the middle of the city.”

Jan. 16:

• Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin plans to launch its New Glenn rocket for the first time.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts the leader of the Central African Republic at the Kremlin.
• TSMC releases its 2024 Q4 earnings results.

An artist adorns rotting fruit with gemstones to create sculptures that speak to life’s beauty and decline. Spotlight: Kathleen Ryan, showing at the Institute of Contemporary Art San Francisco, features pieces such as a giant moldy lemon encrusted with agate, jasper, and amber among other gems, in an exhibition that delivers a “pop art vision of glitter and decay,” Hyperallergic wrote. By delivering a dose of Hollywood bling with their spores, the sculptures “are both semaphores and sirens, warning of our cultural ruin while beckoning us to come closer.”

The wildfires that are sweeping Los Angeles may accelerate the flight of home insurance companies, in spite of recent regulatory changes aimed at retaining them, the state’s previous top insurance official told Semafor’s Tim McDonnell. For California to experience fires like these “was never a question of if, it was a question of when,” the official said.