Flagship

Israel-Hamas war expands

Iran attacked what it claimed were Israeli “espionage centers” in Iraq and deployed forces to Yemen, a significant expansion of the Israel-Hamas war. Baghdad condemned Tehran’s missile strikes in the Iraqi autonomous region of Kurdistan, while U.S. and Middle East officials told Semafor that commanders and advisers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were playing a direct role in Houthi attacks on commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea — the latest of which damaged a U.S.-owned ship, indicating the militant group has not been deterred by American and British air strikes on its bases in Yemen.

Israel itself indicated its focus was shifting from Gaza: Its defense minister said the most intense fighting in the south of the enclave would soon end, as Israeli special forces carried out a cross-border operation in southern Lebanon. The conflict — sparked by a Hamas attack that killed 1,140 people in Israel — has claimed more than 24,000 lives in Gaza, and spurred U.N. agencies to issue a joint appeal for new aid routes into the territory. Aid officials believe that pockets of famine have emerged in Gaza: A single apple now costs $8 and the price of salt has gone up 1,800%, The Guardian reported.

Trump dominates in Iowa

Former U.S. President Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses by a record margin, cementing his status as the prohibitive frontrunner in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Trump took 51% of the vote, with aspiring rivals Ron DeSantis, on 21%, and Nikki Haley, 19%, way behind. Trump, the only current or former president to face criminal charges, is hoping early dominance can force his rivals to concede. His legal issues do not seem to concern most Republican voters: Nearly two-thirds of Iowa caucus-voters wrongly believe the 2020 election was rigged, and more than 60% said Trump would still be fit to serve if he was convicted, Reuters reported. Polls show Trump and President Joe Biden are roughly neck-and-neck with 10 months until the election.

China’s Davos push alarms US

China’s premier sought to win back foreign investment in a speech at Davos, as Beijing sent its largest delegation to the global conclave since 2017, alarming U.S. diplomats. China’s grim economic data has spurred it to court investment, which has fled the country, “rattled by raids on private businesses” and posturing by leader Xi Jinping, Semafor’s Business & Finance Editor Liz Hoffman reported. The speech by Premier Li Qiang was part of a wider push by Beijing at the World Economic Forum: U.S. diplomats think that the presence of Li and 10 state ministers amount to a “pseudo state visit,” according to Politico, and are pushing for Secretary of State Antony Blinken to meet with the Swiss president to achieve parity.

Elton gets EGOT status at Emmys

Elton John won an Emmy, making him the 19th EGOT, or holder of Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony awards. Elton John Live: Farewell from Dodger Stadium, a livestream of his final North American performance, won “outstanding variety special,” to add to his five Grammys, a Tony for Aida, and two Oscars for songs in The Lion King. Succession and Beef were the biggest winners of last night’s Emmys, taking six awards each. The ceremony was delayed by several months by the Hollywood actors’ and writers’ strikes, hence some of the winners being now kind of old: Succession concluded in May last year, and Elton’s Farewell aired in 2022.

Monoculture raises Africa famine risk

Just three crops account for 60% of Africa’s calories, despite the continent being home to 30,000 edible plant species. With 20% of the African population facing hunger, over-reliance on maize, wheat, and rice increases the risk of famine, the climate scientist Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi wrote in The Conversation. Other hardy, nutritious plants, such as cowpea, pigeon pea, millet, and sorghum, which can grow in underused areas and tolerate heat and drought, could help end hunger in Africa. Research shows that small farmers with a wide range of crops are less susceptible to malnutrition. “Neglecting agrobiodiversity in favour of monoculture” has left farmers vulnerable to shocks, Mabhaudhi wrote: Governments should incentivize crop diversification.

Rate cut talk overblown?

Western central bankers sought to tame expectations of mass rate cuts this year. A European Central Bank governor suggested it may not lower its benchmark rate at all in 2024, while traders pricing in as many as seven cuts to rates in the U.S. this year “seems excessive,” one analyst told Bloomberg. In particular, increased tensions in the Middle East and reduced access to the Suez Canal could keep prices higher for longer, experts fear. The talk has huge implications: Countries worldwide — rich and poor alike — are expected to issue a huge pile of debt this year, much of it in dollars and euros.

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Caracas announces rare growth

Venezuela’s economy grew by more than 5% in 2023, according to President Nicolás Maduro, who said growth would reach 8% this year. The economic expansion — the first since 2014 except for a pandemic bounceback in 2022 — was driven largely by the easing of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry: The government foresees a 27% increase in income from the state-owned oil company in 2024. Although sanctions were eased in exchange for free and fair elections later this year, the rise in oil production has boosted Caracas’ capacity to spend ahead of the vote, for which the government is yet to confirm a date.

New book explores global sameness

Global culture is exhibiting a strange sameness, one in which you can use the same map and car service to take you to the same coffee shop in any city in the world: That’s the argument in Filterworld, a new book by the New Yorker critic Kyle Chayka, which traces how algorithms and feedback-loops shape consumers’, restaurateurs’, and artists’ choices alike, driving a convergence across design, music, food, and fashion. “The city becomes a backdrop to the omniscient screen, falling into the space of flows. Geographical differences give way to digital similarities.” But Chayka ends on a note of optimism, or at least curiosity: Filterworld “will run out of fuel and run aground on its own self-referentiality. Something new is on the horizon.”

Female artists climb auction rankings

Art by female artists jumped in value in 2023. The Artnet Price Database, which tracks the auction revenue of the most valuable 500 artists, found that while Pablo Picasso regained the top spot from Andy Warhol, the underlying story was of women such as Barbara Hepworth and Joan Mitchell climbing the rankings, at the expense of male stalwarts like David Hockney, Francis Bacon, and Vincent van Gogh. Mitchell leapt from $67 million in revenue in 2022 to $130 million in 2023, off the back of two major sales, Untitled for $29 million and Sunflowers for $27.9 million. Alice Lee and Alice Neel also had strong years, leaping up the rankings, as did Julie Mehretu.

AI-generated scams fill Amazon

An increasing number of products on Amazon are labeled “I cannot fulfill this request as it goes against OpenAI policy,” the apparent product of lazy scammers using ChatGPT to create fake product pages. Ars Technica notes that “Sorry but I can’t provide the information you’re looking for” is available in a variety of colors. Similarly, searching for “as an AI language model” on X returns a large number of scammy-looking posts. For every obvious fraud, though, “there are likely countless others” that are convincing enough to pass a glancing inspection, the outlet said: “A flood of harder-to-detect AI content is threatening to overwhelm everyone from art communities to sci-fi magazines to Amazon’s ebook marketplace.”

Semafor’s 2024 World Economy Summit, on April 17-18, will feature conversations with global policymakers and power brokers in Washington, against the backdrop of the IMF and World Bank meetings.

Chaired by former U.S. Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein, and in partnership with BCG, the summit will feature 150 speakers across two days and three different stages, including the Gallup Great Hall. Join Semafor for conversations with the people shaping the global economy.

• Australia’s foreign minister visits Jordan as part of a Middle East tour.
• The British government’s controversial plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda will be debated in Parliament.
• The Fury, a thriller about a former movie star who invites her friends to stay on a private Greek island, is published.

The potential improvement to U.S. power grid capacity from “magic balls” installed by drones. Soccer-ball-sized “Neurons” monitor power lines in real time, allowing operators to push them closer to capacity without overloading them. They are already working in several European countries, including Norway where the company that makes them is based: They allowed the Norwegian government to shelve plans for a new rural line after they showed there was plenty of capacity in the existing one. Power companies in at least two U.S. states will install their first Neurons soon, and grid operators hope it will help reduce blackouts as severe weather puts the grid under more strain.

Brazil’s beaches, long known for their volleyball courts, are increasingly making room for another sport: beach tennis. The game has surged in popularity, with the number of players rising from 400,000 in 2021 to 1.1 million in 2023, according to tennis bodies. Beach tennis, largely a doubles sport that uses a net almost double the height of ones used on grass or clay courts, originated in Italy in the 1970s. Last year cities including São Paulo, Aquiraz, and Ribeirão Preto all hosted beach tennis tournaments. “Once forced to fight for space on the beach with volleyball and footvolley, beach tennis is becoming the hot new thing,” wrote The Brazilian Report.

• Why a border deal won’t work without Mexico’s help.
• China has slammed world leaders for congratulating Taiwan’s election winner.
• The British Museum is seeking a new director after a theft scandal.