Davos

1. Why Davos should take AI seriously
2. Today’s events
3. The taboo about Trump
4. What you may have missed
5. Speaking roles
6. Heard on the Promenade
7. A cross to bear
8. Texting with a Davos hotelier

Also: Today in Trump, the president’s administration starts to take shape.

Why Davos isn’t panicked enough about AI

The conversation around AI at last year’s Davos was a mixture of hype and panic. Now, nobody’s panicking and hype has been replaced by a conversation about getting “ROI” on large language models.

But if business leaders think it’s time to put the shock and awe of the “ChatGPT moment” behind them and get back to everyday business, they run the risk of being wrong again.

Since last year, we’ve seen massive leaps in AI capability that prove out the so-called “scaling laws,” which say compute power is directly associated with AI capability. The world’s most valuable companies — which have the best window into AI capabilities — are about to spend hundreds of billions of dollars this year on new AI compute clusters that are going to require a rethinking of the entire US energy grid.

This will make the cost of software creation negligible. If you thought software was “eating the world,” think again. It was only nibbling at it. We are about to enter an era where everything that can possibly be automated with software will be automated. Next, we’ll see a revolution in robotics. At that point, software will actually, physically, eat the world.

For once, “Davos Man” may not be freaking out enough.

That may be because global corporations know they will adapt, and poorer countries — also reasonably represented here at the WEF — see a chance to leapfrog older technology and improve living conditions, as happened during Web 2.0.

Davos’ blindspot, as a wave of global elections have shown, is the middle class of developed countries, whose labor markets will be most dramatically changed by AI.

The change may happen slowly. That would be bad for climate change, medicine, and other areas in which AI could benefit the world, but a good thing for labor. If it happens fast, Donald Trump’s inauguration will look like a quaint neoliberal ceremony.

What’s On Today

11.30 a.m.: The arc of progress in the 21st century, a talk by cognitive scientist Steven Pinker @ Davos-Klosters

11.30 a.m.: Special address by António Guterres, Secretary-General of the UN @ Davos-Klosters

1.30 p.m.: A conversation with Javad Zarif, Vice President for Strategic Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran @ Davos-Klosters

4.20 p.m.: Powering AI for the year ahead with Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock, and Peng Xiao, group CEO of G42 @ Bloomberg House

5.15 p.m.: The state of climate and nature with former US Vice President Al Gore, Muhammad Yunus, chief adviser to the Bangladeshi government, Andrew Forrest, executive chairman and founder of Fortescue, and Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez @ Davos-Klosters

5.30 p.m.: AI: Lifting All Boats with Brad Smith, vice chair and president of Microsoft, Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, and Bill Thomas, global chairman and CEO of KPMG @ Davos-Klosters

7 p.m.: JPMorgan Chase cocktail reception, courtesy of Jamie Dimon @ the Kirchner Museum

9 p.m.: Wyclef Jean and Aloe Blacc perform at the Forbes and Global Citizen concert @ The Dome

10 p.m.: Financial Times and CNBC annual nightcap @ Grandhotel Belvédère

Davos rule: Don’t criticize Trump

The best way to end an interview on the floor of the Congress Centre Tuesday was to ask about the cash flooding into the Trump family’s pockets.

“Not here to talk about that,” said one prominent American politico-business figure, when asked about cryptocurrencies $TRUMP and $MELANIA, whose recent launches may help transform the Trumps into one of the world’s richest families.

The blast of wealth and power out of Washington has been met with a blend of actual and forced optimism from business leaders who face risks and opportunities.

“Trump is right on this: If you don’t have an industrial base, you don’t have an economy. His priority is the US economy, and he has an aggressive agenda. The world should be rooting for the US economy,” said Mark Costa, CEO of Eastman Chemical.

Trump’s former aide Anthony Scaramucci was a rare discordant voice, saying he was shocked both by the “corruption” of the new administration — and by US Democrats’ hesitation in denouncing it.

TL;DR

We read the big Davos thumb-suckers so you don’t have to:

Navigating Trump: “You have to find the issues that Trump will support,” Marc Benioff tells The New York Times for a gloomy piece about the climate future.

War room: JPMorgan analysts worked through the night to assess Trump’s early policy impact: “The last 24 hours are showing that there’s going to be a lot of changes that we all have to digest,” JPMorgan Chase head of asset and wealth management Mary Callahan Erdoes told a WEF panel.

Euro angst: “The world is full of uncertainty — after yesterday even more, and maybe tomorrow there might be even more uncertainty,” said Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo.

Ukraine’s pitch: We’ve heard various versions of this line, via Euronews: “Ukraine should sell itself to Mr Trump, to President Trump, as the new opportunity. Ukraine is the next ‘big thing’ for the Western world.”

View from India: The stars of Davos, Trump and Milei, are talking about deregulation — raising questions of whether their ally Modi will follow, Bloomberg notes.

Is Davos fading: Feels a bit thin on the ground, no? One Davos regular told the FT he was not attending this year because it was “too expensive given the value proposition” and “less and less relevant.”

Beginning of the end: Business Insider claims that “shrinkflation has come for the Davos freebies,” citing smaller hats.

What CEOs expect from the coming year:

Look Who’s Talking

Seen and Overheard

• President Donald Trump’s administration continues to slowly take shape. A Senate panel cleared a key nominee, Scott Bessent, to lead the Treasury Department, in a bipartisan vote, kicking his nomination to the full Senate to consider in the coming days. Meanwhile, picks including US ambassador to the UN nominee Elise Stefanik and Veterans Affairs pick Doug Collins faced confirmation hearings.
• Trump’s team is already contending with legal challenges to his executive orders setting up the Department of Government Efficiency and ending birthright citizenship.
• Leaders at Davos are bracing for Trump’s tariff threats after he signaled a desire to impose duties on Canada and Mexico by the start of February. All eyes are on Trump’s address to the World Economic Forum, expected to take place tomorrow.
• Trump’s aides will chart a course on his legislative agenda, following his meeting with Republicans at the White House.

Moving beyond identifying barriers to achieving practical, scalable interventions — The Next 3 Billion at Davos will discuss emphasizing collaboration between public and private sectors to mobilize resources and technology for global good.

Semafor’s Yinka Adegoke will moderate a conversation with Phuti Mahanyele-Dabengwa, CEO of Naspers South Africa, and Simi Nwogugu, CEO, Junior Achievement Africa to discuss digital upskilling and inclusion.

Jan. 23, 2025 | Davos, Switzerland | Request Invitation

God and Mammon

“I’ve had very, very good conversations with people. They’re very open and I’m happy if they think about spirituality, if they think also that their power is limited. We all are limited.”

— Stephan Maag, a pastor and sheep farmer who was dragging a giant wooden cross down the Promenade.

One Good Text

The Grandhotel Belvédère Davos, built in 1875, was taken over by Berlin hotelier HR Group last year. Tina Heide, its general manager, has more than doubled its usual staffing to handle this week’s influx. She deflected a question about how much revenue this week brings in with Swiss precision.

Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang took out a full-page ad in The Washington Post on Tuesday with a succinct message for the new US commander-in-chief: “Dear President Trump, America must win the AI war.”

In an exclusive interview with Semafor, Wang said he was motivated to make his recommendations by the new White House. “This incoming administration wants to move fast and take a lot of action and really be quite ambitious about a lot of these issues.”