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Trump piles pressure on Russia for a Ukraine deal, India’s complex popcorn taxation system is reveal͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
cloudy Wuhan
sunny Bangkok
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January 23, 2025
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The World Today

  1. Trump threatens Russia
  2. China markets stumble
  3. Missile material ships to Iran
  4. Five years after COVID
  5. Landmark Thai equality law
  6. India’s three popcorn taxes
  7. Gas prices’ impact
  8. AI pills coming this year
  9. Cattle gallstones smuggled
  10. Drone-flying with thoughts

A new exhibit unravels “buried histories.”

1

Trump threatens new Russia sanctions

President Donald Trump in the Oval Office
Carlos Barria/Reuters

US President Donald Trump on Wednesday threatened Russia with more sanctions and tariffs if a deal to end the Ukraine war was not reached soon. Trump’s team has reportedly mulled tougher sanctions on Russia’s oil sector, including European shippers and Asian buyers. The impact of any tariffs, though, may be muted because Moscow’s trade with Washington has fallen to lows comparable to the end of the Cold War. Europe, on the other hand, is buying record levels of Russian gas in 2025, drawing a rebuke from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “You can’t keep buying gas from Moscow while also expecting… backup from the Americans. That’s just wrong,” Zelenskyy told attendees at Davos, where the Ukrainian delegation organized a Trump inauguration bash.

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2

China stocks hit over tariff pledge

China’s stocks and currency took a hit Wednesday after US President Donald Trump said he would impose 10% tariffs on Chinese imports. The figure is far below his previous threat of 60%, leaving experts wondering: “Does Trump want [higher] tariffs or does he want them as a tool to negotiate?” Goldman Sachs’ chief Asia-Pacific economist said. The president’s announcement — a day after he held off on pledging China-specific tariffs — ended the brief relief in some Asian markets, but the rally continued elsewhere. The S&P 500 hit a record high on AI enthusiasm, and even European shares rose despite fresh tariff threats. “Trump seems more focused at home and Europe’s got a stay of execution,” a UK-based investment manager said.

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3

Missile material to sail from China to Iran

A missile is launched during an air defence drill in an undisclosed location in Iran.
Iranian Army/WANA via Reuters

Two Iranian ships carrying missile propellant ingredients will travel from China to Iran in the coming weeks, the Financial Times reported. Western intelligence wasn’t sure if Beijing was aware of the shipments — which include enough chemicals to fuel 260 mid-range missiles — but the US and allies have criticized China for backing Tehran and buying Iranian oil, even as Beijing’s public response to Middle East tensions remains muted. A former CIA analyst said China may be “clandestinely helping Iran produce missiles for the Russian war effort [and] cementing common cause against perceived US hegemonism.”

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4

5 years since first COVID lockdown

Five years after Wuhan imposed the world’s first COVID-19 lockdown, public health experts worry that Donald Trump’s policies could make it harder to fight the next global pandemic. On his first day in office, the president moved to withdraw the US from the World Health Organization, and later paused all external communications from federal health agencies. Scientists fear that an exit from WHO — which will take at least a year — could diminish the US’ standing as a global health leader and complicate its response to another pandemic, because US agencies wouldn’t have access to the organization’s global data. WHO has long been a target for conservatives who said it has become too politicized and infringes on American sovereignty.

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5

Same-sex marriage legal in Thailand

Apiwat Porsch Apiwatsayree, and Sappanyoo Arm Panatkool, pose after a photo session to celebrate the marriage equality bill.
Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters

Thailand is set to become the first Southeast Asian country where same-sex marriage is legal. Hundreds of couples will tie the knot in a mass ceremony in Bangkok to celebrate the law going into effect Thursday. Culturally, Thailand is considered relatively laid-back and accepting, but its government is seen as more traditional. Local officials attended workshops to prepare for the change: “Society is ready,” a Bangkok deputy governor said. Some of the country’s neighbors, like Myanmar and Malaysia, still criminalize homosexuality, and elsewhere in Asia, only Taiwan and Nepal have legalized same-sex marriage.

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6

India’s complex popcorn taxes

An Indian woman purchases popcorn from a street vendor in New Delhi.
B Mathur/Reuters

India’s popcorn taxation system has become a microcosm of the country’s bureaucracy-riddled business environment. The government recently proposed a three-tiered system to tax the snack, with rates depending on its packaging, brand name, and flavor (salted, plain, or caramelized). The announcement was mocked online, and also renewed frustration among some business leaders over India’s notorious red tape, The Wall Street Journal reported. “This shows the attitude that prevails among officials who try to nitpick and to create complications,” the head of an investment firm said. New Delhi wants to boost manufacturing and investment, but a “petty bureaucracy” drives up costs and contributes to “a great unease” in the private sector, a Bloomberg columnist argued.

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7

Europe vulnerable to gas price shocks

A solar power plant is pictured in Tuturano near Brindisi, southern Italy
Alessandro Garofalo/Reuters

Countries that rely heavily on wind and solar power are particularly vulnerable to energy price spikes. Renewable energy is cheap and abundant but only works when the wind blows or the Sun shines. Gas provides a backup, but energy market rules mean that when gas is expensive it pushes all electricity prices up, and gas prices are extremely volatile. European countries reliant on intermittent power were also more vulnerable to gas price shocks, an analysis found. Reducing the volatility means moving away from gas, but nuclear is harder to ramp up or down according to demand: The best solution is likely “battery storage and pumped hydropower,” an energy analyst told New Scientist.

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8

AI drug trials could begin this year

Demis Hassabis, one of the three laureates who is awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2024, speaks during the Nobel Prize lecture in chemistry.
Pontus Lundahl/TT News Agency via Reuters

Drugs made with the help of artificial intelligence will begin human trials this year, the CEO of Google DeepMind predicted in Davos. Demis Hassabis, who also leads a drug discovery startup owned by Alphabet, said machine learning could speed up drug development — which typically takes five to 10 years — to a tenth of that time, potentially saving pharma companies millions, The Register reported. Hassabis, who won last year’s Nobel Prize for chemistry, envisioned using AI for “personalized medicine where it’s optimized… for your personal metabolism,” while acknowledging the limits of AI in science. The tech won’t fully replace researchers any time soon, he said, because AI isn’t capable of true invention or crafting new hypotheses.

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9

Cattle gallstones smuggled

A “gaucho” farmer stands in the middle of a herd of cows in the Farroupilha camp in Porto Alegre, Brazil.
Stefano Rellandini/Reuters

Chinese traditional medicine is fueling a global smuggling operation in cattle gallstones. Chinese herbalists believe that the hardened bile deposits in the gallbladder — which can be dangerous and even fatal — can treat hypertension, obesity, and other conditions. Traders are paying up to $5,800 an ounce — twice the price of gold, The Wall Street Journal reported, and smugglers hunt them in the world’s beef-producing regions, especially Brazil. A single gallstone can be worth more than a cow, and theft and violence are common. Chinese medicine is a $60 billion industry, but the trade of rare animal parts, “from rhinoceros horns to pangolin scales and tigers’ penises,” endangers those species.

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10

Paralyzed man flies drone using thoughts

A screenshot of the drone being directed through a simulated obstacle course by the movements of a virtual hand.
Nature Medicine

A paralyzed patient flew a virtual drone through an obstacle course with remarkable precision using a brain-machine interface. Researchers asked the tetraplegic man to watch a video of a moving hand, then used artificial intelligence to identify the brain activity associated with finger movements. Those signals were used to allow him to control a hand that flew the drone inside the virtual world. Brain-machine interfaces have been used for a decade now, but have struggled with fine motor control: The new research raises hope that they could allow paralyzed people to regain autonomous movement.

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Flagging

Jan. 23:

  • The US Senate holds a confirmation hearing for Trump’s agriculture secretary nominee, Brooke Rollins.
  • Japan publishes trade data for 2024.
  • Oscar nominations are announced in Los Angeles after being delayed twice due to the wildfires.
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Curio
Sung Hwan Kim, A Record of Drifting Across the Sea.
Courtesy of Sung Hwan Kim/Seoul Museum of Art

Hawaii becomes a site for “unraveling buried histories” in an exhibition at the Seoul Museum of Art. In Ua a‘o ‘ia ’o ia e ia, artist Sung Hwan Kim tells the stories of the different groups who called the island home, The Korea Times wrote, from the indigenous Hawaiians whose land was lost when the US annexed the island in 1898, to its status as a waypoint for early 20th-century Korean immigrants crossing the Pacific to work on sugarcane plantations in America. One installation is a reimagined map of Hawaii populated by forgotten figures, capturing the narratives of “those who have drifted, and continue to drift, beyond the established confines of national borders, regional boundaries and ethnic categorizations.”

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Semafor Spotlight
A worker is seen at Bisha Mining Share Company’s processing plant, northwest of Eritrea’s capital Asmara, on Feb. 19, 2016.
Thomas Mukoya/File Photo/Reuters

East Africa is likely to see increased interest from mining companies, many of which are smarting from disputes with military governments around the Sahel, Semafor’s Alexis Akwagyiram reported.

Several companies have launched arbitration cases against authorities in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger in recent weeks. East African countries, meanwhile, “have plenty to offer Western miners in the coming years, notably the relative absence of strongarm tactics,” Akwagyiram wrote.

Subscribe to Semafor Africa for more on a rapidly changing continent. →

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