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Donald Trump issues a tariff threat to global business leaders, China pressures funds to invest more͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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January 24, 2025
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The World Today

  1. Trump’s latest tariff threat
  2. China’s stock market push
  3. Companies defend diversity
  4. India pressures Apple, Google
  5. Stargate shows AI’s global rise
  6. US-China tech race risks
  7. Prabowo amasses power
  8. Solo traveling in groups
  9. Giant iceberg could ram island
  10. Brazil shines in Oscar noms

A new way to learn the secrets of spies in the UK.

1

Trump renews tariff threat at Davos

U.S. President Donald Trump makes a special address at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Yves Herman/Reuters

US President Donald Trump warned the world’s political and business leaders gathered in Davos to manufacture in the US or face tariffs. His remarks equated to a “protectionist shot across the bow to US allies and companies” that had hoped friendly ties with Trump would limit penalties on their imports, The Wall Street Journal wrote. Global markets and governments are anxiously awaiting clarity on Trump’s tariff plan — he said Thursday that non-US made goods would face duties of “differing amounts.” In his virtual address at the World Economic Forum, Trump also took aim at European regulators and oil prices; he urged OPEC to push down crude prices, which he said would lead to lower interest rates globally.

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2

China pushes funds to invest more

Shopworkers sell new year decorations near Yuyuan Garden ahead of Lunar New Year in Shanghai, China, January 23, 2025.
Go Nakamura/Reuters

China told state-owned mutual funds and insurers to invest more in the domestic stock market, in a bid to revive its listless equity market. Beijing is bracing for higher US tariffs under Donald Trump, as investors grow anxious that the government isn’t doing enough to jumpstart the languishing economy. Analysts said the latest initiative could help stabilize the stock market, but a bigger boost would require stronger stimulus efforts. The push comes just days before the Lunar New Year holiday, which typically sees a crush of spending on food, travel, and gifts: Investors are watching closely for any signs of broader economic growth — or lack thereof.

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3

Companies defend diversity efforts

A shopper pushes a shopping cart at a Costco store ahead of Black Friday in Arlington, Virginia.
Benoit Tessier/Reuters

Several US firms are standing by their diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts, despite President Donald Trump’s opposition. Trump told business leaders at Davos Thursday that DEI programs were “absolute nonsense,” and has suggested that companies could be investigated over them. Meta and McDonald’s recently scrapped their programs, but the boards of Costco and Apple have pushed back on shareholder proposals from a conservative think tank criticizing DEI initiatives. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon’s response to anti-DEI activists targeting the firm was: “Bring them on.” However, he expressed his dislike for “monikers,” reflecting corporate America’s aversion to the DEI label, while still retaining diversity initiatives. “The acronym may be unhelpful, because empty terms make easy targets,” a legal expert said.

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4

India pressures Apple, Google

People take pictures outside a soon to be launched Apple retail store at a mall, in New Delhi, India, April 12, 2023.
Anushree Fadnavis/Reuters

India wants Apple and Google to open up their app stores, the latest sign of New Delhi seeking more control over Big Tech. Officials are pressuring the companies to make a pack of state-backed apps more accessible to Indians, Bloomberg reported; the US tech firms are unlikely to agree, setting up a potential clash. India’s stricter regulatory approach aligns more closely with European governments’ emphasis on digital oversight — UK authorities on Thursday launched new antitrust probes into Apple and Google — but differs from US President Donald Trump’s light touch tactics. European banks, though, are growing more optimistic that deregulation in the US could soon spread across the Atlantic.

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5

What Stargate announcement reveals

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on AI infrastructure, next to Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman at the Roosevelt room at White House.
Carlos Barria/Reuters

US President Donald Trump’s backing of a $500 billion investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure is more a reflection of the AI industry’s global rise than US tech ambitions, The Atlantic argued. Alongside executives from OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank, Trump this week heralded the Stargate project as a sign of American tech dominance over competitors like China. But “Trump needs this more than any of the men he was standing beside,” The Atlantic wrote. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has reportedly proposed similar initiatives to Middle East investors and Asian chip companies; Oracle has also made major AI investments in the Middle East: “AI development is proceeding within, but also outside of, the US, Stargate or not.”

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6

‘No winners’ in US-China AI race

The artificial intelligence arms race between the US and China would have no winner and put the world at greater risk, two analysts argued in MIT Technology Review. US efforts to block China from accessing computing resources have not slowed Beijing’s AI progress. The US views AI through a national security lens, seeing future war as inevitable. The existential threat, however, “is not from China,” but from “bad actors and rogue states” aiming to disrupt stability. The choice between collaboration and confrontation is urgent, because transformative AI may be close: The Information reported that OpenAI is close to testing AI agents that could act like PhD-level programmers in the workplace.

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7

Prabowo consolidates power

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto salutes during a welcoming ceremony at the government palace, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, in Lima, Peru.
Agustin Marcarian/File Photo/Reuters

Indonesian Prime Minister Prabowo Subianto is amassing power in ways that raise concerns of an autocracy, experts said. He brought more than 100 ministers into his cabinet, ostensibly to improve inclusivity, but the move “consolidates power by rewarding loyalty over dissent,” an analyst argued, while allowing decisions to be made by a tight inner circle. He is also boosting the army’s influence in civilian affairs, expanding its role to include agricultural development and handing out free meals — apparently harmless activities, but which “enhance the Army’s political presence,” according to one scholar. Indonesia was a military dictatorship until 1998, and observers are concerned that the changes are reasserting the military’s “dual function” in the country.

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8

Solo vacationers travel in groups

A growing number of holidaymakers are going on group trips organized for solo travelers. More and more people live alone, at all stages of life, and coordinating vacations is difficult: “It’s hard enough coordinating dinner out with friends,” one traveler told The New York Times. Tour operators are increasingly offering lone vacationers a group to travel with. The system has downsides — flight choices are restricted and stops may be shorter than travelers’ preferences — but for an atomized society, these trips become “multiday friend-finding events,” an organizer said. One widow told the Times that after meeting two other bereaved women on a 2023 trip to Rome, they are now going to Costa Rica together: If you’re open, “people connect in an unbelievable way.”

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9

Giant iceberg on the move

An iceberg in the waters around South Georgia.
British Forces South Atlantic Islands

The world’s largest iceberg is on the move, driving fears that it could crash into a remote island in the southern Atlantic Ocean. The glacial mass, which is more than three times the size of Hong Kong, broke off from an ice shelf in Antarctica in 1986, but got stuck on the sea floor. It dislodged in December, “speeding into oblivion,” the BBC wrote. It is heading toward South Georgia, a British territory and a haven for king penguins and elephant and fur seals. Experts worry it could impede the animals’ access to feeding areas if it rams into the island. “I would be extraordinarily happy if it just completely missed us,” a sea captain based there said.

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10

Brazil gets big Oscar noms

Image from I’m Still Here
Sony Pictures Classics

A Portuguese-language film set amid Brazil’s country’s military dictatorship picked up a surprise Oscar nomination for best picture Thursday, in what some attributed to a rise in the Academy’s international voting members. I’m Still Here also got a nod for lead actress for Fernanda Torres, only the second Brazilian actress to be nominated in that category: The first was her mother. Meanwhile, Emilia Pérez, the French-produced, Spanish-language musical about a transgender cartel boss, broke the record for most nominations received by an international film. Their success reflects the “Academy’s global efforts to increase its membership and diversity in its voting ranks,” awards-focused site Gold Derby wrote. By some current estimates, international voters make up more than 20% of the Academy.

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Flagging

Jan. 24:

  • Taiwan releases 2024 GDP data.
  • European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks in Davos on the global economic outlook.
  • Two giant pandas make their public debut at the National Zoo in Washington, DC.
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Curio

A cipher disc owned by Josef Jakobs, the last person executed at the Tower of London.
Courtesy of the National Archives

The secrets of spies and spycatchers get a rare official spotlight in a forthcoming exhibition that delves into the UK’s rich history of espionage. MI5: Official Secrets, showing at the National Archives this spring, marks the first time the British domestic spy agency has collaborated with archivists, AFP reported. The objects on display offer an insider account of the 115-year-old agency; they include a WWII guide to tailing a target, a firsthand account of Soviet double agent Kim Philby’s 1963 confession, and various pieces of spycraft equipment. “While much of our work must remain secret, this exhibition reflects our ongoing commitment to being open wherever we can,” MI5 chief Ken McCallum said.

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Semafor Spotlight
Tulsi Gabbard
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Tulsi Gabbard’s bid to become Donald Trump’s director of national intelligence is on shaky ground, with Republican lawmakers raising private concerns and the president urging her to get aggressive, Semafor’s Burgess Everett and Shelby Talcott report. “There are very serious concerns by enough members to put her nomination in jeopardy,” one GOP senator told Semafor. A second Republican senator said she still “has a lot of questions to answer.”

For more scoops and analysis on the second Trump administration, subscribe to Semafor’s daily Principals newsletter. →

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