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France’s president cements stronger ties with New Delhi, the US economy surprises on the upside, and͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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January 26, 2024
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Flagship

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The World Today

  1. Macron visits Modi
  2. US economy gets better
  3. Hostage talks in Europe
  4. Apple opens up app store
  5. Taiwan’s conscription rules
  6. NATO exercise underway
  7. Clean tech powers China
  8. China’s tennis boom
  9. HK wants Taylor Swift
  10. What cavemen ate

Our first Substack Rojak, and the return of bird and buffalo fights in India.

1

Macron visits India as Modi’s guest

India's Press Information Bureau/Handout via REUTERS

French President Emmanuel Macron will be the chief guest at India’s Republic Day festivities on Friday, a sign of how close the two countries have become. Paris and New Delhi have had a mostly tension-free dynamic for nearly three decades — France is now the second-largest defense exporter to India — and Macron’s visit is expected to yield new military and tech partnerships, analysts said. They have some foreign policy differences, but France is often reluctant to criticize India on issues like human rights and democracy, a South Asia expert noted in Foreign Policy. Their relationship takes on greater importance now, as more Western countries view India as a counterbalance to China. “France bet on India very early on. India fully reciprocated. Today, those bets are paying off,” an Indian Express columnist wrote.

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2

US economy beats expectations

The U.S. economy grew 3.3% in the last quarter of 2023, beating analysts’ predictions. Prices are up 3.4% from last year, but consumer spending and job growth have been strong. Perhaps more important than the raw numbers, though, are signs that more Americans are starting to feel like the economy is getting better, Semafor’s Jordan Weissmann wrote. That’s especially important in an election year in which President Joe Biden is likely to lean on his economic track record. The new GDP figures suggest the Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates until at least March. The European Central Bank also held its key interest rate steady Thursday.

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3

CIA director joins hostage talks

REUTERS/Tyrone Siu

The U.S. tapped its CIA director to secure a breakthrough in hostage talks between Israel and Hamas. Williams Burns is set to travel to Europe to meet with Israeli, Egyptian, and Qatari officials, according to multiple reports. Israel has proposed a two-month pause in fighting in exchange for the return of all hostages, but Hamas has insisted on a permanent ceasefire, which Israel opposes, The Washington Post reported. Still, both sides’ willingness to come to the table suggests a deal could be on the horizon, analysts said. Israel is under growing pressure from hostages’ families, and “Hamas also understands that the next stages of the conflict can cause this organization severe damages,” a former Israeli intelligence official said.

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4

Apple overhauls app store in EU

REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes

Apple is making sweeping changes to its app store in the European Union to comply with new rules aimed at controlling the power of tech giants. The landmark shift, which will allow users to download games and tools from third-party app stores and gaming services, shows how “a checkerboard of laws and regulations is now fracturing people’s technology experiences based on where they live,” The New York Times wrote. Apple had resisted the change, which points to the growing regulatory power of the EU. The tech giant, meanwhile, is reportedly facing an antitrust investigation in the U.S. over alleged efforts to protect the power of the iPhone.

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5

Taiwan begins yearlong conscription

REUTERS/Ann Wang

The first wave of Taiwanese recruits serving a full year of mandatory conscription began their enlistment Thursday, after the period was extended from four months. The longer stint stems from Taipei’s worries about the military threat posed by China, which views the island as a breakaway province it will eventually reunify. After a more Beijing-friendly party lost Taiwan’s presidential election this month, China defied expectations by not launching military exercises or deploying vessels around the island as a show of force, Politico’s Phelim Kine noted. But “the current relative calm in the Taiwan Strait could be very temporary.”

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6

NATO kicks off mammoth exercise

A 2023 NATO exercise. Nikolay Doychino/AFP via Getty Images

NATO kicked off its biggest military exercises in decades, an effort to show unity against Russia in the midst of uncertainty over the U.S.’ commitment to the continent’s defense. Washington is locked in political battles over whether to continue to fund Ukraine’s military in its war with Russia, while the potential return of Donald Trump adds another worry. “When I look at this year … the first thing that goes through our minds is Trump,” a senior conservative European politician told Politico. The Washington Post’s European Affairs columnist chimed in: “Last spring, everyone was focused on Ukraine. Now, one ambassador to the alliance told me, ‘every discussion we have is about Trump.’”

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7

Clean tech drives China growth

Clean tech was the biggest single driver of China’s economic growth last year, according to analysis by Carbon Brief. Clean-energy investment accounted for all of the country’s expansion in overall investment, driven in large part by what China calls “the new three”: electric vehicles, solar power, and batteries. Absent the huge expansion of clean tech, China’s economy would have grown only 3% last year, compared to the official rate of 5.2%. The country’s increasing dominance in the sector has meant that Western efforts to reduce supply chain reliance on China are probably “too little too late,” and are unlikely to have any significant impact this decade, Rystad Energy, a research firm, said recently.

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Flagship on WhatsApp

Join Flagship on WhatsApp — our new channel will deliver regular (but not too regular) updates from around the world, bringing you charts, statistics, and conversations from our global team of journalists. Join by clicking this link on your phone.

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8

China’s ‘Queen Wen’ reaches finals

REUTERS/Issei Kato

Zheng Qinwen will become only the second Chinese player to compete in a tennis Grand Slam final when she takes the court in the Australian Open this weekend. The 21-year-old will face Belarus’ Aryna Sabalenka, marking the culmination of a tennis boom in China that began when Li Na won the 2014 Australian Open. Beijing has poured money into tennis stadiums and training centers in recent years as part of a broader push for greater success across multiple sports. Yet it also faced global pushback after the disappearance of the tennis star Peng Shuai, who said in 2021 she was sexually assaulted by a government official.

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9

HK swiftly rethinks concert scene

Buda Mendes/TAS23/Getty Images

Taylor Swift is forcing some Asian countries to rethink their entertainment and tourism strategies. Hong Kong’s tourism minister vowed this week to take steps to attract big names like Swift after lawmakers questioned why she and acts like Coldplay skipped the city on their world tours. Analysts attribute it to Hong Kong’s lack of large venues and its slow pandemic reopening. Swift’s only Asian tour stops this year are in Tokyo and Singapore, sparking an outcry among fans in the region and leading Indonesia to simplify its concert permitting process in response. The countries have good reason for the reforms: Swift’s Eras Tour shows in Europe this summer are set to provide a major tourism boost to local economies.

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10

Study challenges caveman stereotype

LUKA GONZALES/AFP via Getty Images

Early hunter-gatherers were mostly just gatherers, a new study found. Evidence from burial sites in the Peruvian Andes dating back to 7000-4500 B.C. suggested diets mostly consisted of wild potatoes or other root vegetables, with meat only making up 20% of humans’ intake. The findings challenge the “macho caveman” stereotype often associated with Earth’s first humans, the study’s lead author said. Animal remains and tools for meat-eating are more likely to be preserved than plant remains, possibly fueling the original notion that meat was a primary part of early diets. The analysis also signals that the shift to agricultural economies was a gradual transition, and not driven by over-hunting.

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WES 2024

Semafor’s 2024 World Economy Summit, on April 17-18, will feature conversations with global policymakers and power brokers in Washington, against the backdrop of the IMF and World Bank meetings.

Chaired by former U.S. Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein, and in partnership with BCG, the summit will feature 150 speakers across two days and three different stages, including the Gallup Great Hall. Join Semafor for conversations with the people shaping the global economy.

Join the waitlist to get speaker updates. →

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Flagging

Jan. 26

  • Tuvalu — among just a dozen countries that officially recognize Taiwan — holds parliamentary elections.
  • Japan’s parliament reconvenes amid a continued slush fund controversy that is battering its prime minister’s popularity.
  • Expats, a television series based on Janice Y. K. Lee’s best-selling novel set in Hong Kong, premieres on Amazon Prime.
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Substack Rojak

Rojak is a colloquial Malay word for “eclectic mix,” and is the name for a popular Javanese dish that typically combines sliced fruit and vegetables with a spicy dressing.

Going abroad

China rose as an economic superpower without creating global brands and cultural products like its East Asian neighbors. K-pop, Nintendo, and anime are sources of soft power for South Korea and Japan, but Chinese goods are still often regarded as cheap and poorly made. A new wave of Chinese brands is trying to overcome that reputation, and if you want to see their efforts, look no further than the cosmetics industry.

Japan imported 125% more Chinese makeup in 2023 than the year prior, influenced in part by TikTok trends, write Rongrong Zhuge and Yaling Jiang in a post for Following the Yuan, Jiang’s fascinating newsletter about consumer culture in China. TikTok is perhaps Beijing’s most successful media export ever, and its users have helped popularize beauty styles like “Douyin makeup” — named after the Chinese version of the app.

Cool beans

Soybean plants have a symbiotic relationship with a bacterium called Bradyrhizobium. In exchange for energy, the bacteria capture nitrogen from the air and affix it to the legume’s roots, making the plant more bountiful. For thousands of years, Chinese peasant farmers were totally unaware of this microbiological process, but understood that soybean roots ought to be left in the ground after harvest to fertilize the next crop.

In 1909, an agricultural scientist from the U.S. named Franklin Hiram King spent eight months studying farming techniques in China, Japan, and Korea, and came back “brimming with the fervor of a freshly converted evangelist,” writes journalist Andrew Leonard in a brilliant series about soybeans. King was convinced the world needed to adopt Asian farming practices, particularly the principle of never wasting natural fertilizer. His writings influenced the Western organic farming movement. But in an “unbearably huge and tragic contradiction,” China is now one of the world’s largest consumers of synthetic fertilizer, and it imports some 100 million tons a year of largely unsustainably farmed soybeans from the Americas annually.

The new establishment

Taiwan’s presidential election this month briefly turned the island’s politics into front-page global news. A Broad and Ample Road, the Taiwan-focused newsletter written by historian Albert Wu and lawyer and author Michelle Kuo, makes two insightful points about the results: First, newly elected President Lai Ching-te isn’t as anti-China as his Democratic Progressive Party is often portrayed abroad. And second, people in Taiwan appreciate democracy because of the island’s own history of authoritarian rule, not exclusively because of how it contrasts with China’s increasingly autocratic system.

Indeed, on election day, Wu took a moment to marvel at how smooth and transparent the voting process was, demonstrating “how far we had come” since the early, turbulent days of Taiwan’s democracy in the ‘90s and 2000s.

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Curio
REUTERS/Utpal Baruah

Bird and buffalo fights are back in India after a nine-month pause, with stricter animal protection rules now in place. Thousands gathered at a recent festival in the country’s northeast to watch bulbul songbirds fight for five to 10 minutes, with judges scoring them on their technique. The tradition dates back to the 18th century and had become a festival mainstay, but the country outlawed the fights in 2014, per the Associated Press. Organizers insist the birds don’t get injured, only tired. The law mandates they be set free at the end of the event, with violations leading to a five-year ban. The buffalo fights at the festival draw even bigger crowds.

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