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A judge blocks Donald Trump’s federal funding pause, national security concerns over DeepSeek, and f͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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January 29, 2025
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Americas Morning Edition
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The World Today

  1. Trump fund freeze blocked
  2. Fed to hold rates steady
  3. Mexico/Canada border curbs
  4. DeepSeek security concerns
  5. US stock concentration risk
  6. UK population grows
  7. Two-father babies close
  8. Anti-Rwanda DRC protests
  9. Civilian jet goes supersonic
  10. New home for Mona Lisa

The growth of shipping through the Arctic, and recommending a history of the Panama Canal.

1

Trump’s funding freeze blocked

US government spending as a share of GDP.

A US judge temporarily blocked President Donald Trump’s effort to pause federal funding, which had caused widespread chaos and confusion. The order, which is halted until Monday, would freeze trillions of dollars in grants until the Trump administration could vet them for what it called “woke ideology,” The New York Times reported. In a further sign of the new administration’s push for fiscal austerity, the White House also offered to buy out the contracts of federal workers who leave their job within the next week as it pushes to rapidly shrink the US government. The moves show that Trump is “dead-set on slashing federal outlays — and willing to tolerate any political backlash it may cause,” Axios wrote.

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2

Fed set to hold interest rates steady

A chart showing the US fed funds rate by decade.

The US Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady when it meets Wednesday, putting it in conflict with President Donald Trump, who has called for an easing of monetary policy. Policymakers have lowered borrowing costs at each of their last three meetings, but traders are betting on a pause in rate cuts because inflation remains higher than the Fed’s target and the central bank wants more clarity on the impact of Trump’s policies. In particular, it wants to better understand how an expected uptick in prices as a result of the president’s imposition of tariffs — a key Trump policy — will affect consumers’ inflation expectations, The Wall Street Journal’s chief economics correspondent, a noted Fed-watcher, wrote.


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3

Canada, Mexico migration crackdown

Mexico and Canada trade with the US

Canada and Mexico began cracking down on US-bound migration in response to Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs. The Mexican border city of Ciudad Juárez filled in a tunnel used to smuggle migrants into Texas, while Canada deployed Black Hawk helicopters and K9 teams to curb illegal crossings. Trump has threatened tariffs of 25% on imported goods from the two countries — the US’ biggest trading partners — if they fail to halt the flow of people. However critics note that the new US administration’s cuts to foreign aid, including for projects to counter the cartel violence that has displaced thousands across Latin America, could drive an increase in regional migration.

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4

US raises DeepSeek security concerns

A Deepseek illustration
Davo Ruvic/Reuters

Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek could pose a threat to national security, US officials said. The US Navy reportedly banned members from using its apps over “potential security and ethical concerns,” and a White House spokesperson said the federal government was examining possible security implications. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s AI czar said there was “substantial evidence” that DeepSeek had trained its apparently groundbreaking R1 model on OpenAI’s ChatGPT in a breach of intellectual property law, a claim echoed by OpenAI itself. The release of R1 shocked the world last week as it appeared to achieve cutting-edge results using a fraction of the computing power of other leading models, driving a huge sell-off in AI and tech stocks.

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5

US markets’ ‘concentration risk’

Magnificent Seven’s share of the SP500

The US stock market suffers from “concentration risk,” analysts warned. Shares have been buoyant in large part because of the performance of a cluster of major firms known as the Magnificent 7. But “a market this dependent on a few stocks is a bad sign,” a Bloomberg columnist warned. The co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater, an asset manager, said in a newsletter that she would spread risk more evenly this year, because “the world ahead is likely to reward diversification.” And one expert told the Odd Lots podcast that downplaying the risks because US markets are comparatively less concentrated than others globally is “kind of like saying, my Mercedes is now using plastic knobs, but don’t worry, the Honda uses plastic knobs too.”

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6

UK immigrants swell population

Europe’s share of the global population

Britain’s population exceeded that of France for the first time, and will continue to grow, driven entirely by immigration, according to official statistics. There are an estimated 68.3 million people in the UK, compared with France’s 68.2 million: That figure is expected to reach 72.5 million by 2032. Birth and death numbers in Britain are roughly equal, but net migration of around 5 million over the period will keep the population growing. Like many developed nations Britain’s native-born population is aging, and although immigration is unpopular it means “a bigger economy, more workers, and higher tax receipts,” one economist told The Guardian: Japan, which similarly is aging but allows less migration, is facing a significant labor crunch.

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7

Babies with two fathers near reality

A baby mouse.
Flickr

Lab-grown sperm and eggs are moving closer to reality, potentially removing age barriers to conception and allowing same-sex couples to have biological children. The UK fertility watchdog said that the technology could be viable within a decade, and that lawmakers must prepare for an overhaul of fertility regulations to minimize the medical and ethical risks. Separately, scientists announced that mice born to two fathers had been raised to adulthood for the first time: Mice with two mothers have been around for decades, but using two male parents involved greater challenges. The specific method is not well-suited to human use, New Scientist reported, but indicates rapid progress in the field.

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8

DRC protests against foreign influence

M23 rebels in eastern DRC.
Thomas Mukoya/Reuters

Protesters in the Democratic Republic of Congo attacked the French and Rwandan embassies over what they said was foreign interference aiding rebel forces. Clashes between the M23 militia — which experts believe is funded by Rwanda — took the key eastern city of Goma, potentially cutting off a major aid route for hundreds of thousands of displaced people, Reuters reported. Analysts believe the M23 serves Kigali’s interest in the country, including moves to control gold and cobalt mines in eastern DRC. The leaders of both countries were due to speak today following calls by the head of the UN for Rwanda to stop meddling in the DRC, AFP reported.

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9

Private jet breaks sound barrier

A photo of the X1-B aircraft.
Alyson McClaran/Reuters

A privately built civilian aircraft broke the sound barrier for the first time. Boom Supersonic’s X1-B — named for the Bell X1, in which Chuck Yeager went supersonic in 1947 — reached Mach 1.12 over California’s Mojave Desert. Only two supersonic transport planes have ever flown, Concorde and Russia’s Tupolev Tu-144: Both were state-backed, very loud and expensive, and in the Tu-144’s case unreliable. The X1-B is much quieter when it breaks the sound barrier, leading to hopes that a future version could go supersonic over land and make it commercially viable. Boom Supersonic’s planned Overture airliner would seat up to 80 passengers, but one analyst told The Washington Post there is still “a long, long, long way to go.”

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10

Mona Lisa to have own room at Louvre

The Mona Lisa.
Creative Commons

The Mona Lisa will be moved to a new exhibition space, part of a wider renovation of the Louvre. Around 9 million people visit France’s most famous museum each year, and most of them seem to be crammed into the smallish room displaying Leonardo da Vinci’s masterpiece at any one time: Visitors to Paris will know the vague disappointment of seeing La Gioconda in the middle distance over a dozen rows of heads. French President Emmanuel Macron said a €500 million ($520 million) overhaul to the 232-year-old museum would ease the constant overcrowding, and the Mona Lisa would be moved to a dedicated room with no other paintings.

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Flagging
  • Leaders of the East African Community regional bloc meet to discuss the crisis in the DRC
  • Chinese Lunar New Year begins
  • Brazil soccer star Neymar returns to his boyhood club Santos
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Plug

With so many financial newsletters competing for attention, it’s hard to find one that makes sense of the market. That’s why more than one million savvy readers trust The Daily Upside for their daily dose of finance, economics, and investing insights. Created by Wall Street insiders, The Daily Upside delivers clear, actionable analysis — straight to your inbox. Subscribe for free today.

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Semafor Stat
37%

The increase in Arctic shipping over the past decade. Climate change has thawed ice around the North Pole, opening new trading routes which can significantly cut travel time for vessels. That in turn has led to a scramble among several nations — notably China, Russia, and the US — to control the valuable sea lanes. Rising temperatures have also opened new areas for mining exploration, including in northern Greenland, driving US President Donald Trump’s stated ambition to acquire the self-governing island. “The greater territorial stability of the postwar era is an anomaly that is now set to end,” an expert at the University of Chicago wrote.

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Semafor Recommends
Semafor recommends illustration

The Path Between the Seas: The Creation of the Panama Canal, 1870–1914, by David McCullough. This 1977 history of the vital shipping link between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans “[holds] one’s attention like a James Bond novel,” The American Historical Review said at the time, with its emphasis on “heroic accomplishments and exotic enterprising adventures,” but McCullough nonetheless has “the skill to treat majestic subjects with scholarly acumen.” Buy The Path Between the Seas from your local bookstore.

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Semafor Spotlight
Scott Bessent, Steve Mnuchin, and Janet Yellen
Kevin Lamarque, Andrew Kelly/Reuters. Graphic: Joey Pfeifer/Semafor

The Biden administration held far fewer meetings with corporate executives compared with the first Trump administration, a Semafor analysis found. According to public calendars, former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin logged three times as many meetings and official conversations as his successor Janet Yellen in the first three years of their respective tenures, Rachyl Jones and Liz Hoffman reported. Such chilliness may help explain why many corporate leaders rallied to support Trump during the 2024 election.

For more on the Trump administration’s approach to corporate executives, subscribe to Semafor Business. →

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