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The US agrees to a one-month tariff delay for Canada and Mexico, USAID’s future is in doubt, and The͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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February 4, 2025
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The World Today

  1. Canada, Mexico tariff delay
  2. Musk moves against USAID
  3. Trump orders wealth fund
  4. Global concessions to Trump
  5. Russia winning Arctic race
  6. Moscow’s luxury home boom
  7. Fewer Japanese in China
  8. Globalization is not new
  9. Rat populations grow
  10. The Beatles’ AI Grammys win

A new museum dedicated to a renowned poet’s messy love life.

1

Canada, Mexico get US tariff reprieve

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.
Raquel Cunha/Reuters

US President Donald Trump agreed to delay 25% tariffs against Mexico and Canada for a month after conversations with the countries’ leaders Monday. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to send an additional 10,000 troops to the border as part of the deal, which rallied markets after fears of a trade war sparked a global stock selloff. And Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he agreed to border security reinforcements and a tougher drug crackdown. But 10% US tariffs on Chinese goods were still set to take effect Tuesday, with the countries’ leaders likely to speak in the next couple of days: China is reportedly preparing for negotiations with Trump in the hopes of averting an all-out trade war.

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2

Musk vows USAID shutdown

Protesters outside the USAID office in Washington, DC.
Kent Nishimura/Reuters

The headquarters of the US Agency for International Development was closed Monday as tech billionaire Elon Musk worked to dismantle the foreign aid agency. The future of the world’s largest donor is in doubt after Musk, who leads a new “government efficiency” office, said President Donald Trump agreed to “shut it down,” while Secretary of State Marco Rubio, now the acting USAID director, said “there are things that it does that we have strong questions about.” The agency doles out tens of billions in humanitarian aid, employing thousands worldwide who administer the programs. Trump’s halting of overseas aid — which has bolstered US geopolitical soft power — creates an opening for its rivals like China, Bloomberg reported; Beijing has made inroads in the “Global South,” upping investments in Africa and Southeast Asia.

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3

Trump orders US sovereign wealth fund

President Donald Trump on Monday ordered the creation of a US sovereign wealth fund, suggesting it could buy TikTok. A federally owned investment vehicle would require congressional approval, and it’s unclear how it would be funded; Trump’s commerce secretary nominee said the government does so much business with companies like drugmakers that it should benefit from having equity in those firms. But sovereign wealth funds only make sense “for countries with state-owned assets, budget surpluses, and weak private sectors — none of which apply to the US,” Semafor Business Editor Liz Hoffman wrote last year after Trump floated the idea. “America’s resources are, for better or worse, in private hands.”

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4

Denmark suggests Greenland concession

Pituffik Space Base in Greenland.
Pituffik Space Base. Ritzau Scanpix/Thomas Traasdahl via Reuters

Denmark’s leader opened the door to a bigger US military presence in Greenland, following President Donald Trump’s threats to take control of the territory. While Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen insisted Greenland is “not for sale,” her suggestion Monday that the US can have “more possibilities” there marked the latest concession by a world leader who has landed in Trump’s crosshairs: Panama’s president pledged to review his country’s ties to Beijing after Trump’s vow to take over the Panama Canal, while Venezuela agreed to take in deported migrants. And India on Saturday unveiled sweeping cuts to import duties, with one economist remarking, “It seems they’re doing everything they can to avoid [US] tariffs.”

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5

Russia, with China’s aid, dominates Arctic

Russia is winning the race to dominate the Arctic. As the planet warms, Arctic ice is retreating, opening up sea lanes and mining opportunities. The number of voyages through the Northern Sea Route has climbed steadily, from fewer than 20 in 2015 to almost 100 in 2024. And geopolitical tensions between NATO and Russia have led to renewed military deployments at high latitudes, with Russian submarines test-firing cruise missiles, and NATO wargames in the Arctic Sea. But NATO lacks military infrastructure in the far north, according to The Wall Street Journal, as Moscow increases its presence and opens up its Arctic territory to China, boosting the two countries’ ties following Russia’s isolation due to international sanctions.

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6

High-end property surge in Moscow

The Vodootvodny Canal in Moscow.
Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

Luxury home prices are falling or slowing around the developed world — with one notable exception: Moscow. Hong Kong, London, San Francisco, and other major cities are expecting to see prime residential real estate lose value this year, as borrowing costs, increased taxes, and rules on foreign ownership hit demand. Prices for Dubai’s ultra-luxury properties are still going up, but more slowly, Bloomberg reported. Moscow’s luxury market, however, has exploded since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Sanctions mean Russians are unable to buy overseas, and war spending has driven up inflation, “driving some high-end properties to the eye-watering levels more commonly seen in Dubai or London.”

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7

China sees drop in Japanese residents

Passengers in a station during the Lunar New Year.
Go Nakamura/Reuters

The number of Japanese residents in China hit a 20-year low in 2024 as strained geopolitical ties weighed on business and travel. Public safety concerns following two deadly knife attacks targeting Japanese children — along with companies’ shift away from China amid Beijing’s national security crackdown — saw the number dip below 100,000 for the first time since 2004, Nikkei Asia reported. But Japan’s leader in recent months has looked to bolster ties with China, which recently resumed visa waivers for Japanese tourists, while Donald Trump’s return to the White House could also push Beijing closer to Tokyo, analysts said.

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8

Globalization’s ancient history

The Parthenon in Greece.
Louiza Vradi/Reuters

A new book makes the case that change in ancient human history was defined by connections, not competing civilizations. So-called civilizational thinking — dichotomies between the East and the West, Muslims and Christians — leads to misunderstanding, extremist beliefs, and us-versus-them attitudes, Josephine Quinn, a professor of ancient history at Cambridge University, argues in How the World Made the West. Quinn draws her argument from notable cross-cultural exchanges that changed history, like Arabs in Central Asia correcting the work of Greek astronomers, or Roman soldiers using Southeast Asian spices. The book reflects a growing consensus among historians and archeologists that “globalization is as old as humanity itself,” a Foreign Policy review wrote.

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9

More rats as climate warms

A brown rat.
Jethro Busby/Wikimedia Commons

Warmer cities mean more rats. The rodents cause $27 billion in economic damage each year in the US alone, by transmitting disease and spoiling food. Research found that the fastest-warming cities tended to have the biggest rat populations, with Washington, DC, worst affected: Its rat numbers had grown three times as fast as Boston’s. Another key factor correlated with rodents’ increasing numbers is the (human) population density, because “denser populations mean more dumpsters, more restaurants, and more opportunities,” Science wrote. A few cities like Tokyo and New Orleans saw a decline in rats, which researchers attributed to effective monitoring and control systems.

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10

AI-assisted Beatles song wins Grammy

Sean Ono Lennon accepts the Best Rock Performance Grammy on behalf of The Beatles.
Sean Ono Lennon accepts the Best Rock Performance Grammy on behalf of The Beatles. Mario Anzuoni/Reuters

The Beatles won a Grammy for a song created with the help of artificial intelligence — the first such track to receive the honor. Now and Then, awarded Best Rock Performance on Sunday, was recorded by John Lennon in 1977 as a solo demo. Paul McCartney used audio isolation technology to clean up his late bandmate’s tape, releasing it in late 2023. The track employed “subtle technology that illuminates, rather than generates,” The Los Angeles Times wrote. Using AI in music is contentious, and the Grammys mandates that submissions have meaningful “human authorship.” The song’s producer compared AI to nuclear power. “It can split the atom — is that a good idea? Yes if you’re creating energy, but no if it’s a bomb.”

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Flagging

Feb. 4:

  • South Korea’s Constitutional Court hears oral arguments in the impeachment trial of President Yoon Suk Yeol.
  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets US President Trump at the White House.
  • Bill Gates’ memoir Source Code is published.
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Curio
Portrait of Lord Byron
Wikimedia Commons

A museum in Italy will showcase mementos of British poet Lord Byron’s affair with a married Italian noblewoman — including peeled fragments of his sunburnt skin that she lovingly preserved. Byron, one of the great Romantic poets and a serial philanderer, followed Countess Teresa Gamba Guicciolo to the northern city of Ravenna in 1819, residing in the home she shared with her husband, along with his pet monkeys and eagle. The abandoned palazzo underwent a 10-year conversion and will now house art, books, and memorabilia with the hope of reviving tourists’ interest in Byron’s work and presence there, The Art Newspaper wrote. On display will be Gucciolo’s other keepsakes in devotion to their love story, like greying locks of Byron’s hair.

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Semafor Spotlight
US Senator Chuck Schumer.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

Chuck Schumer’s advice for Democrats staring at a long two or more years out of power: Just wait. “Trump will screw up,” he told Semafor’s Burgess Everett in an interview.

First there was the OMB memo suggesting a massive budget freeze. Then Trump moved ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Both times, Schumer quickly mobilized his media strategy while ignoring other outrages. “I didn’t know he’d screw up so soon,” Schumer said of Trump. “This is going to be a pattern.”

For more interviews and scoops from Capitol Hill, subscribe to Semafor’s daily Principals newsletter. →

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