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China’s response to Trump’s imminent tariffs, Musk’s influence on government comes under scrutiny, a͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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February 4, 2025
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The World Today

  1. China’s tariff response
  2. Trump risk to car industry
  3. Limits to Musk’s power
  4. Bukele’s migrant offer
  5. Iran atom bomb plans
  6. Russia’s smuggling routes
  7. Rwanda M23 ceasefire
  8. Norway’s energy crisis
  9. A jailbreak-proof AI?
  10. Mangoes move north

How much men and women talk, and recommending a new single from Lady Gaga.

1

China responds to Trump tariffs

A chart showing the US’ share of imports from China.

China hit back at US tariffs with export restrictions, surcharges on American coal and gas, and an antitrust probe into Google. Beijing’s countermeasures came after US President Donald Trump paused levies on goods from Canada and Mexico following concessions from those countries’ leaders, but went ahead with a 10% tax on Chinese goods. His apparent willingness to negotiate suggests Beijing may have room to maneuver, but the White House’s fast-changing announcements “have stunned markets and boardrooms across the world,” The Wall Street Journal said. “If this is all part of a master plan by Trump” to get American allies to spend more on defense and cut their trade surpluses, “then fine,” one analyst wrote. “Instead, it looks chaotic and confused.”

For more on the Trump presidency, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. →

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2

Tariff threat to US car sector

Share of global car exports by value.

Automakers appear particularly vulnerable to the US’ tariffs on its neighbors, experts warned. Though President Donald Trump suspended levies on Canada and Mexico, his rapidly shifting pronouncements “are throwing decades-old supply chains into question,” Bloomberg reported, with one analyst noting that a single vehicle component could cross US borders up to eight times before assembly even takes place. Domestic car production does not meet demand within the US, an ING economist said, meaning Trump’s tariffs “will therefore quickly lead to higher costs.” Even US giants like GM and Ford, with their global footprints — 25% of some categories of GM vehicles are imported into the US — will not be spared.

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3

Trump downplays Musk’s power

Donald Trump and Elon Musk.
Brad Penner-Imagn Images/File Photo/Reuters

US President Donald Trump downplayed Elon Musk’s power shortly after the tech titan effectively shuttered a federal aid agency. “Elon can’t do — and won’t do — anything without our approval,” Trump told reporters. Musk’s political influence is under growing scrutiny: “Elon Musk is president,” MSNBC’s Jonathan Lemire wrote in The Atlantic, adding that the X owner “has declared war on the federal government.” A Democratic congressman said that Musk’s move to close USAID represented “illegal, unconstitutional interference.” Though Musk was a key Trump backer during the election campaign, there have been tensions over his status: Following Democratic jibes about “Vice President Trump,” the then president-elect insisted that Musk is “not going to be president.”

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4

Bukele offers to house US criminals

Chart showing prison population per 100,000 people in various countries.

​​El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele offered to house “dangerous criminals” deported from the US in his country’s jails. Bukele — who built the world’s largest prison as part of his harsh crackdown on crime — is seen in Washington as a key ally in Central America, where US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has this week been promoting the White House’s tough-on-migration approach. Rubio is pushing regional countries to take in deported migrants from other nations, an approach right-wing governments elsewhere have attempted: Last week, a court in Italy blocked the government’s bid to process asylum seekers in Albania, while the previous UK government failed in its attempt to transfer its asylum process to Rwanda.

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5

Weak Iran looks to rush bomb plans

Iran’s president visiting the ministry of defense.
Iran’s Presidential website/WANA/Handout via Reuters

Iran’s weakness may be leading it to accelerate efforts to develop a nuclear bomb. Tehran’s regional proxies have been weakened, its president died in a helicopter crash in July, and Israeli attacks have hit its nuclear facilities. But according to The New York Times, US intelligence suggests that Iranian scientists are exploring a faster, cruder route to an atomic bomb. Iran’s new president is seeking talks with US President Donald Trump, and the leadership has not decided to develop a weapon, The Times reported, but should it choose to do so, it could enrich its existing uranium stockpile in days — although the resulting weapon would not fit in a ballistic missile.

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6

Russia’s Asian smuggling routes

Chart showing Italy’s exports to Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan and China appear to be acting as conduits for smuggling goods into Russia to circumvent Western sanctions. Georgia’s export data shows large numbers of cars sold to Kyrgyzstan, but Kyrgyzstan’s import numbers don’t match, OilPrice.com noted. Similarly, Italy has seen exports to Kyrgyzstan surge since the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with one analyst saying the goods are “obviously getting shipped to Moscow.” Sanctions have severely impaired Russians’ ability to buy foreign goods, but enterprising smugglers find ways around them: Japan’s piano exports to China are up 300% despite Chinese demand falling, likely because the pianos are being moved on to Russia, the South China Morning Post reported.

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7

M23 announces ceasefire

Arlette Bashizi/Reuters

A rebel group led by the Rwanda-backed M23 militia that has taken swaths of territory in the Democratic Republic of Congo declared a unilateral ceasefire. The announcement came shortly after the M23 captured the key city of Goma, displacing thousands of families, and said it would push on to the DRC’s capital. Critics say Rwanda has stoked the clashes in a bid to control the gold- and mineral-rich eastern DRC, driving fears the conflict could widen into a regional war. “A strong decision [must be taken] not only to condemn, but to stop what Rwanda is doing, because it is not acceptable if you want to preserve peace in Africa,” a Congolese lawmaker told Reuters.

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8

Norway’s power struggle

The new Norwegian government.
NTB/Rodrigo Freitas/via Reuters

The collapse of Norway’s government last week shows the cost of countries’ increasing interconnectedness, analysts said. On the surface, the row that fractured the two-party coalition centered around efforts to implement European Union energy rules. Key to the dispute, however, was Norway’s electricity links to Germany, where a shortage of wind and solar required it to buy power from Norway. The country also raises electricity prices in high-demand areas, meaning Germany’s purchases spurred particularly high costs in Norway’s populous south, driving political anger over the government’s policies. Europe’s grid — with its deep connections between nations — thus may have helped reduce prices regionally, but certain populations suffer. “The problem is both complex and simple,” a Bloomberg columnist noted.

For more on the energy transition, subscribe to Semafor’s Net Zero newsletter. →

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9

Anthropic’s jailbreak-proof AI

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei.
Yves Herman/Reuters

Anthropic released a new artificial intelligence model which it said was near-impossible to “jailbreak,” or bypass its safeguards. The nature of large language model AIs means they are hard for their creators to control: Firms would rather they did not offer recipes for making bombs, or, in Chinese firm DeepSeek’s case, opinions about the sovereignty of Taiwan. But users have usually managed to find ways around them, perhaps by asking it to imagine it is someone’s grandmother telling a story, or by asking in alphanumeric code. Anthropic’s latest AI has broad rules it is designed to follow, and after 3,000 hours of public efforts to jailbreak it — with a $15,000 bounty for a successful attempt — it remains unbroken.

For more on the world of AI, subscribe to Semafor’s Tech newsletter. →

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10

Mangoes spread to warming Italy

A mango tree
Creative Commons

Italy’s fruit farmers are turning from lemons and olives to mangoes as the climate warms. It’s one of a number of changing agricultural patterns around the world: Many coffee-growers in Asia and Latin America are turning to adaptable, climate-tolerant quinoa; corn farmers in the US Midwest are trying drought-resistant millet varieties. The changes will “radically [redefine] what different regions are known for,” Grist reported, and the mango is a key example. It is becoming ever more popular around the world, but its heartlands are facing higher temperatures and lower rainfall, compromising the very specific conditions mangoes need to grow. Production is shifting north, notably to Italy, which had just 24 acres of mangoes in 2004, but nearly 3,000 by 2023.

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Flagging
  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to hold talks with US President Donald Trump in Washington, DC.
  • Pakistan’s president begins a five-day visit to China.
  • Sri Lanka marks its 77th anniversary of independence.
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Semafor Stat
21,845

The average number of words spoken per day by a woman aged between 25 and 64, according to new research. That’s 3,000 more than the average man. The stereotype that women speak more than men was believed to have been debunked by a 2007 paper, but scientists pointed out that it was only looking at students in Austin, Texas. A wider study of 2,000 people of all ages in four countries found that in their middle years, women do speak more than men. But there was more difference within the sexes than between them: The least talkative individual was a man, who spoke around 100 words a day, and the most talkative was also a man, who spoke more than 120,000.

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Semafor Recommends

Abracadabra by Lady Gaga. The US songwriter revealed her new single at the Grammys, leading Pitchfork to ask: “When’s the last time Gaga released a single this good?” Not for a while, is the answer: Certainly not since Shallow, six years ago, and probably not since 2013’s G.U.Y. Abracadabra is perhaps reminiscent of older Gaga work, but she is “still a cut above the average pop star; her real competition is the ghosts of Gaga’s past.” Listen to Abracadabra on Spotify.

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Semafor Spotlight
US Senator Chuck Schumer.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

Chuck Schumer’s advice for Democrats staring at a long two or more years out of power: Just wait. “Trump will screw up,” he told Semafor’s Burgess Everett in an interview.

First there was the memo suggesting a massive budget freeze. Then Trump moved ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Both times, Schumer quickly mobilized his media strategy while ignoring other outrages. “I didn’t know he’d screw up so soon,” Schumer said of Trump. “This is going to be a pattern.”

For more interviews and scoops from Capitol Hill, subscribe to Semafor’s daily Principals newsletter. →

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