Flagship

Indonesia goes to the polls

The frontrunner in Indonesia’s presidential election Wednesday is expected to be more assertive towards Beijing in the South China Sea than his predecessor, experts say. Prabowo Subianto, the current defense minister, has refashioned himself as a warm and cuddly grandfather online, but critics worry he could reverse democratic reforms, pointing to accusations of human-rights violations against him. Indonesia is the world’s third-largest democracy and the biggest economic player in Southeast Asia, giving it significant influence over trade and security in the region. The election will indicate whether the country will “step confidently onto the global stage, or … be held back by the nationalism, protectionism, and isolationism that have historically defined Indonesian political culture,” an Atlantic Council expert wrote in The Diplomat.

Progress made on truce talks

Israel and Hamas made progress toward a six-week ceasefire and hostage-release deal Tuesday, officials said, though analysts emphasized an end to the war is likely far off. The recent rescue of two Israeli hostages could challenge the idea that only a deal can secure the release of more of them, perhaps buying Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “a bit more time to achieve the ‘total victory’ that he has set as his objective,” an Al-Monitor columnist wrote. Israel simultaneously moved forward with plans for an offensive on the densely populated Gazan town of Rafah, an assault the United Nations humanitarian chief warned “could lead to a slaughter.”

Europe sounds alarm over Russian threat

European countries are increasingly fearful that Russia poses a security threat not just to Ukraine, but the rest of the continent as well. Moscow is on track to double its military presence along NATO’s border, choosing a path of “long-term confrontation,” Estonian intelligence said Tuesday, echoing concerns voiced recently by Denmark. Baltic states, meanwhile, have been ramping up their defense efforts, with plans to build a line of bunkers. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent suggestion he could ignore NATO obligations if Russia attacked an allied state has also forced European leaders to pledge greater military cooperation. The warnings come as the U.S. Senate approved a $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, but its passage appears unlikely in the House.

US inflation hotter than expected

U.S. inflation is slowing but hovering stubbornly around 3%, lowering the chances that the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates this spring. The data caused European and U.S. stocks to drop, and threaten to snap a winning streak for Wall Street, which has seen stocks rise for 14 of the past 15 weeks. Faced with a generally strong U.S. market, Republicans have cited high consumer prices to attack President Joe Biden ahead of an election in which the economy is a top issue for voters. The new inflation data poses a setback for Biden’s economic messaging, Politico reported.

Myanmar to enforce army draft

Myanmar’s military junta, which took power in 2021 and remains in control of the country’s biggest cities, said it would invoke a decade-old law to draft young men and women into the army. The announcement sparked fear nationwide as reports emerged of men being abducted by military personnel in the middle of the night, The New York Times reported. Those who avoid being called up face up to five years in prison for refusing to help the regime fight rebel groups that recently took over swaths of territory along Myanmar’s northern border with China. “This shows the junta’s desperation,” a Burmese lawyer and political activist told The Times.

Demand soars for Chinese tutor gadgets

Chinese parents are turning to artificial intelligence-powered tablets to give their kids an edge after the government cracked down on after-school tutoring. The devices, which can go for over $1,000 and often bar children from downloading games or surfing social media, come preloaded with customized education apps. One device made by iFlytek has a chatbot for practicing English, a quiz tool that can analyze test results, and a program that claims to read and grade handwritten essays like a human teacher would, Rest of World reported. The Chinese government forced most private tutoring firms to shutter in 2021 in an attempt to alleviate student pressures and make education more equitable, sending the industry underground.

Van Gogh exhibit breaks Paris record

A new Vincent van Gogh exhibition at Paris’s Musée d’Orsay broke the museum’s previous attendance record. Van Gogh in Auvers-sur-Oise: His Final Months showcased 124 artworks created by the Dutch painter shortly before his suicide in 1890. More than 800,000 people visited in four months, breaking records set by previous exhibits featuring works by Edvard Munch and Pablo Picasso, a trend that underscores the persistent interest in a few superstar artists. Le Monde noted the “tenacity” of fans queuing to “catch a glimpse of paintings through dense crowds,” but also said that the “exceptional” exhibition revealed how van Gogh had been “on the threshold of a new painting style” before his death.

Semafor’s 2024 World Economy Summit, on April 17-18, will feature conversations with global policymakers and power brokers in Washington, against the backdrop of the IMF and World Bank meetings.

Chaired by former U.S. Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein, and in partnership with BCG, the summit will feature 150 speakers across two days and three different stages, including the Gallup Great Hall. Join Semafor for conversations with the people shaping the global economy.

Why your drink isn’t as strong

Popular beverage brands are reducing the alcohol content of their products, reflecting a global shift toward low- or no-alcohol drinks. Japan’s Asahi and Sapporo breweries said they wouldn’t launch any new shōchū highball drinks with an alcohol content of 8% or higher, while Korean liquor producer Hitejinro slightly lowered the alcohol content of its soju, according to local news reports. Economic factors often play a role: In the U.K., rising production costs led several popular beer brands to drop their alcohol content last year, hence lowering the taxes they were subject to. But young people are also increasingly turning to lighter and healthier drink options: “Anyone under 45 is not drinking high alcohol beers,” a British consultant told The Independent.

Restaurants are back

The U.S. restaurant sector could reach over $1 trillion in sales for the first time this year, an industry report predicted. An executive from the National Restaurant Association told QSR that would be equivalent to $125 million in revenue per hour. Restaurateurs themselves are also optimistic, with many expecting sales to increase or hold steady, although a large share are still struggling to turn a profit amid rising food and labor costs. One of the biggest challenges is hiring, with 45% of restaurant operators reporting not having enough staff to meet customer demand. Consumers seem largely undeterred by high prices, and are expected to continue to spend, despite many perceiving the economy as being poor.

Famous Brazilian flea market shutters

Rio de Janeiro’s best-known flea market was shut down by police over claims it had been used to launder stolen goods. The Feira de Acari, founded in 1970, is “famed for its suspiciously low prices and immortalised in songs,” The Guardian reported. It’s nicknamed “robauto,” Portuguese for “car theft,” thanks to “a booming trade in stolen car parts.” Merchandise from hijacked trucks, including household goods, clothes, and medicine, have found their way into the stalls as well. But the mile-long market also provided honest work for inhabitants of some of Rio’s poorest communities. Rio’s former mayor sent troops in to shut it down in 1994, but it reopened only a few months later.

Feb. 14

• The Pope celebrates Ash Wednesday at the Basilica of Santa Sabina in Rome.
• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo for talks focusing on Gaza.
• The international LA Art Show opens at the Los Angeles Convention Center.

South Korea’s mandatory military conscription is no longer a “death sentence” for K-pop boy bands. Stars are able to survive the once-dreaded “gongbaekgi” period thanks to pre-recorded songs and continuous social media engagement, allowing fans to still feel connected, Korea JoongAng Daily reported. EXO’s Baekhyun, for example, posted 20 YouTube videos during his mandatory 18-month military service that he recorded ahead of time. The remaining members of BTS — arguably the biggest music group in the world — began their service in December, with plans to reunite as a band in 2025. (We have full confidence that their fanbase ARMY will re-embrace them just as much as the Korean army did.)

• The Chinese e-commerce app Temu dominated Super Bowl advertising this year.
• How Washington reacted to Biden joining TikTok.
• What we know about Russia’s alleged use of Starlink satellites.