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Europe presents a united front over Ukraine while the White House is divided, a real-life Murdoch su͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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February 14, 2025
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The World Today

  1. White House divided…
  2. …Europe united on Kyiv
  3. Russia’s Sudan base deal
  4. Taiwan placates Trump
  5. Australia, China tensions
  6. Murdoch succession drama
  7. Argentina inflation down
  8. Latam’s aging population
  9. World’s oldest known bird
  10. Uncovering Roman London

A quiet year for shark attacks, and recommending an album by one of Egypt’s most popular rappers.

1

White House divided over Ukraine

US Vice President JD Vance.
Leah Millis/Reuters

White House officials issued a series of contradictory statements about US policy toward Russia and Ukraine. President Donald Trump said that Russia should rejoin the G7, from which it was expelled after its 2014 invasion of Crimea, and floated a possible deal with Russia and China under which the three countries halve their defense spending. He also recently suggested Ukraine “may be Russian someday.” But at the Munich Security Conference, his vice president said US troops could be sent to defend Ukraine if Russia acts in bad faith, and his defense secretary walked back suggestions that Ukraine could never join NATO, saying “everything is on the table.” The contradictions are creating “uncertainty and anxiety” among US allies, CNN reported.

For more on Trump’s second term, subscribe to Semafor Principals. →

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2

Europe’s unified backing for Kyiv

A chart showing defense spending by country.

European leaders moved to establish a unified backing for Kyiv in the face of growing chaos from the US. French President Emmanuel Macron said the return of President Donald Trump should be an “electroshock” which will force Europe to “muscle up” and take more responsibility for its own defense. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned against accepting a “dictated peace” in Ukraine after Trump suggested he would conduct negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin without Europe’s involvement, and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer talked up his support, saying British troops could go to Ukraine as peacekeepers and that Ukraine is on an “irreversible path” to NATO membership, despite the White House saying it was not “realistic.”

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3

Russia makes Sudan base deal

The foreign ministers of Sudan and Russia.
The foreign ministers of Sudan and Russia. Maxim Shemetov/Reuters.

Sudan agreed to allow Russia to establish a naval base on its Red Sea coast, which would give Moscow sway over one of global commerce’s most valuable trade routes. The planned base — Russia’s first in Africa — could provide Moscow with an alternative to its naval base in Syria’s Tartus, after the fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s Moscow-backed regime weakened its presence in the Mediterranean. The base comes amid intensifying competition for influence around the Horn of Africa: The US and China have bases in Djibouti, while the US recently stepped up its bid for a military base in Somaliland. However, Russia’s plans could be hampered by the ongoing civil war in Sudan, where the rebel Rapid Support Forces still control swaths of the country.

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4

Taiwan moves to placate Trump

A chart showing advanced semiconductor production by country.

Taiwanese President William Lai pledged to boost his government’s investment in the US in response to threats of tariffs. US President Donald Trump recently accused Taiwan of “stealing” the American semiconductor industry, and threatened to overturn subsidy deals worth $6 billion. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s biggest chipmaker, is already committed to spending $65 billion to build three factories in Arizona, partly to appease the US but also to hedge against a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. But Trump wants to rebuild the US semiconductor industry on a larger scale. Lai said Taiwan remained the US’ “most reliable trading partner” but acknowledged that the Trump administration’s “strategies and policies… are completely different from the past.”

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5

China, Australia face off

A picture of two Chinese navy vessels.
Creative Commons.

Close encounters and fierce words between Australian and Chinese forces raised tensions in the South China Sea. A Chinese fighter jet released flares within 100 feet of a Royal Australian Air Force surveillance plane Tuesday, an act Canberra labeled “unsafe and unprofessional.” In return, China accused Australia of “deliberately imping[ing] upon China’s rights” in the area and called Australia a “villain… spreading false narratives.” Beijing’s territorial claims over large parts of the South China Sea are heavily disputed by other countries and were rejected by a 2016 ruling in the Hague. Australia’s prime minister said that its surveillance aircraft was flying over international waters and that the country was merely “asserting the rules of the road.”

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6

Murdoch succession drama

Rupert Murdoch.
Leah Millis/Reuters

Rupert Murdoch attempted to hand control of his media empire to his eldest son Lachlan, and strip three of his other children of influence over the family business. Rupert distrusts his younger, more politically liberal son James, who has criticized Fox News’ approach, The New York Times reported, and in 2023 tried to convince his daughters to help him hand power to Lachlan, whom he believes will maintain the network’s conservative stance. They accused him of “disenfranchizing” them, sparking a secret legal battle, which Rupert and Lachlan lost. Murdoch is 93 and frail, and the failure of this deal, probably his last, could mean control of his empire slips from the family’s grasp.

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7

Argentina’s inflation falls again

A chart showing Argentina’s poverty rate.

Argentina’s inflation rate fell to its lowest level since 2020, a further sign of President Javier Milei’s remarkable economic turnaround. Since becoming president a year ago, Milei has presided over huge cuts to government spending and a pullback on subsidies, leading to the first budget surplus in 14 years. Although the harsh measures have also led to a sharp rise in poverty rates, the libertarian leader remains popular. However, the executive powers Milei has relied on for his “shock therapy” expire later this year, raising fears among his backers that momentum could stall. October’s elections for Argentina’s Congress — where Milei’s party holds a small minority of seats — may define his movement’s future.

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8

Latam’s coming demographic crisis

Chart showing projected average ages of Latam countries in 2100

Latin America is aging at an extraordinary pace, raising fears that the region is unprepared for the needs of its growing elderly population. Plummeting birth rates and rising life expectancy mean that by 2100 more than 31% of Latin America’s population is expected to be 65 or older, a greater proportion than any other region in the world. Meanwhile, many workers in the region’s large informal employment sector have no pension savings and slowing economic growth has left countries unprepared for the demographic shift. “There’s a saying: ‘Latin America gets older before it gets richer,’” an expert at the Inter-American Development Bank told Americas Quarterly.

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9

World’s oldest known bird found

An illustration of an Archaeopteryx. Creative Commons.
An illustration of an Archaeopteryx. Creative Commons.

Chinese scientists found a 149-million-year-old fossil that they believe is the oldest known bird. All birds evolved from theropod dinosaurs like velociraptors, with paleontologists long theorizing they emerged in the Jurassic period, about 150 million years ago — but exactly when and how has been a mystery. Before the latest discovery, in southeastern China, the only bird-like creature believed to have lived in that period was the Archaeopteryx, which had feathers, but also a long, reptile-like tail. Scientists described the newly discovered fossil as a quail-sized creature that had features similar to modern birds, including a short tail, suggesting these traits evolved far earlier than previously thought.

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10

Uncovering Roman London

An illustration of Londinium.
An illustration of Londinium. Creative Commons.

A 2,000-year-old town hall was found beneath an office building in central London, the latest piece of Roman architecture to be unearthed in the heart of the British capital. London — or Londinium — was founded by Romans: Before Emperor Claudius conquered Britain in AD 43, it was marshland. Its place on the River Thames made it convenient for trading goods with the empire. The newly discovered basilica, or colonial administrative building, stood on the edge of London’s forum, a huge courtyard that acted as a commercial and social hub. A 10-minute walk away, under the Bloomberg offices, is an ancient temple to the god Mithras, while part of the original Roman city walls stand half a mile to the north.

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Flagging
  • US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth meets Poland’s president.
  • The trial against former Spanish soccer chief Luis Rubiales for kissing player Jenni Hermoso ends.
  • Williams F1 unveils its 2025 car.
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Semafor Stat
47

The number of unprovoked shark attacks worldwide in 2024, the lowest in almost 20 years. The International Shark Attack File keeps a record of every reported attack on humans, and last year was “exceptionally calm” — in the average year, there are 70. Four were fatal. The US had the most attacks, with 28 — half of them off the coast of Florida — and Australia second. It remains true that you are much more likely to be killed by a cow than by a shark, although obviously the math changes somewhat if you are in the ocean at the time.

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Semafor Recommends

Magnün by Lella Fadda. This experimental rap album by Egypt’s most-streamed female artist of 2024 is “unapologetically confident,” said OkayAfrica: Its standout track Tarat Tarat Tat, in collaboration with Egyptian rapper Abyusif, “showcases Fadda’s versatility as a rapper and a singer.” Listen to Magnün on Spotify.

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Semafor Spotlight
US President Donald Trump signs an executive order.
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Trump’s rapid-fire approach – encompassing everything from a flurry of executive orders to an aggressive Elon Musk-led effort to downsize the federal government – is quickly becoming the defining feature of his second term, write Shelby Talcott and Burgess Everett.

“That is a key element of his strategy: Throw it at the wall, some of it sticks, some of it doesn’t,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., told Semafor. “One way or the other it’s distracting. And it’s infuriating.”

For more on Trump’s second term, subscribe to Semafor Principals. →

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