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The US and Russia begin Ukraine peace talks in Riyadh, Europe looks to step up its defense spending,͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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February 18, 2025
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Americas Morning Edition
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The World Today

  1. US-Russia talks begin
  2. Euro defense spend plans
  3. Germany’s climate election
  4. SAfrica looks to Russia
  5. US vaccine hesitancy grows
  6. China’s advanced medicine
  7. NYT permits newsroom AI
  8. Milei’s crypto crisis
  9. Overnight gaming bans
  10. Cities face housing crisis

Small-time investors’ growing pessimism, and recommending a much-loved London Chinese restaurant.

1

US-Russia talks open

US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

Senior US and Russian officials opened talks in Riyadh aimed at ending the war in Ukraine and improving ties between the two powers. Notably absent from the meetings — much to their frustration — were European powers, whose troops would likely be needed to enforce any peace deal, and Ukraine itself. But the negotiations offer a glimmer of hope for resolving other disputes, in particular rebuilding frayed business and economic ties. Beyond issues of blood and treasure, US President Donald Trump may be seeking a grander prize, some analysts suggested: To pull a “reverse Nixon,” by drawing Moscow out of Beijing’s orbit, much like Richard Nixon drew China from Russia in the 1970s.

For more on the Trump presidency, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. →

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2

Europe talks up defense spending

A chart showing defense spending as a share of GDP.

European nations talked up the possibility of raising defense spending in the face of US pressure and their exclusion from Ukraine peace talks. France proposed joint Europe-wide bonds to fund increased military expenditure, while Poland’s prime minister pushed fellow European Union nations to ramp up their defense budgets. Even US President Donald Trump, whose administration has spent its first month largely disparaging European powers, voiced openness to increasing arms sales to the continent with the intention of the weapons being sent to Ukraine. Much still depends on the results of Germany’s upcoming election, though: The country’s likely next chancellor has voiced openness to the idea of joint bonds, but coalition partners may balk, ING analysts noted.

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3

Germany may curb climate ambitions

A chart showing German’s power generation by source.

Germany’s weekend election could lead to a significant reversal of climate-friendly policies in Europe’s richest economy. The center-right opposition is expected to emerge triumphant in a campaign that has made little mention of environmental issues, DW noted, with the economy and immigration taking greater prominence. Friedrich Merz, the country’s likely next chancellor, has spoken disparagingly of wind turbines, and has faced growing pressure from the far-right AfD party, which has sought to curtail wind power. Budgetary constraints have already made Germany’s chances of hitting its climate targets appear remote, and green policies look likely to be given short shrift.

For more on the energy transition, subscribe to Semafor’s Net Zero newsletter. →

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4

SAfrica open to Iran nuclear help

A chart showing South Africa’s electricity generation per capita.

South Africa could turn to Iran or Russia to expand its nuclear energy capacity, a government minister said, a move that could widen Pretoria’s rift with the US. Africa’s biggest economy has long been beset by a lack of reliable power, culminating in hours-long blackouts last year and huge financial losses: The country is estimated to have lost $46 billion due to the energy crisis between 2020 and 2023. Turning to US rivals for nuclear technology could further alienate Washington, which last week cut foreign aid to South Africa, citing its disapproval over a controversial land distribution policy, and the country’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, Reuters reported.

For more from the continent, subscribe to Semafor’s Africa newsletter. →

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5

US vaccine hesitancy grows

A chart showing vaccine hesitancy in the US

Montana’s state legislature will vote on a bill to ban mRNA vaccines. A physician in the US state told a House committee that the vaccines are “the most destructive and lethal medical products [ever] used,” The Daily Inter Lake reported. US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a noted vaccine skeptic, and President Donald Trump has expressed concerns about links, which have been debunked, between vaccines and autism. Vaccine hesitancy has been rising, especially since the pandemic: One Texas county with widespread vaccine exemptions is now the epicenter of an ongoing measles outbreak, and scientists partly blame this year’s unusually intense flu season on reduced vaccination rates. Flu vaccinations were at their lowest in 12 years last winter.

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6

China’s health care heft

A medicine production facility in China.
Creative Commons

China’s progress in medical science is startling world scientists as much as its breakthroughs in artificial intelligence. The launch of DeepSeek’s AI model last month stunned the world, but the release of a Chinese cancer immunotherapy drug which outperformed the leading existing therapy was less remarked upon in major news outlets. China is best known for creating generic versions of Western medicines, The Economist reported, but in recent years it has moved to the cutting edge: It is now the second-largest developer of new drugs, while its scientists this week unveiled an optical-fiber technology which could allow wire-thin cables into the brain for real-time imaging of nerve cells, according to the South China Morning Post.

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Semafor Exclusive
7

NYT greenlights AI for newsroom

The New York Times building.
Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

The New York Times greenlit the use of artificial intelligence in its newsroom, saying the technology could write some social media copy, headlines, and code. A message to staff said the company would begin training journalists on a new AI tool, Semafor’s Max Tani reported. Large language models are increasingly powerful tools for productivity: An internal Deutsche Bank analysis said that an LLM took eight minutes to produce a 9,000-word report on US steel tariffs, although its sources needed checking, while an economist noted that an AI managed to reach similar conclusions to a Canadian government report on tariffs, but instead of taking hundreds of staff hours, it took 12 seconds.

For more on how AI is shaking up industries worldwide, subscribe to Reed’s newsletter, Semafor Technology.  →

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8

Milei probed over crypto crash

Argentinian President Javier Milei.
Agustin Marcarian/Reuters

A judge in Argentina will investigate President Javier Milei’s role in promoting a cryptocurrency that crashed, marking the biggest crisis of his presidency to date. Opposition lawmakers also threatened to impeach Milei over a post on X about $LIBRA, leading the country’s stock market to lose more than 5% on Monday. As president, Milei has pushed through several profound economic changes that have led to the first budget surplus in 14 years, and to inflation rates plummeting. While the moves have also sent poverty rates soaring, Milei has managed to preserve his popularity, which is now threatened by “cryptogate.” The debacle “is a slap in the face,” Milei told Argentina’s Todo Noticias.

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9

Indian state looks to limit gaming

A child gaming.
Rawpixel/Creative Commons

The Indian state of Tamil Nadu is considering banning online gaming at night over fears around its impact on children. Online games, often played for real money, are popular across India, and Tamil Nadu is concerned that thousands of children are using their parents’ phones to play them. Other countries have imposed similar bans — in 2011, South Korea shut down all overnight online gaming for under-16s to combat sleep deprivation, and China enacted an even more stringent policy in 2019. But such blunt instruments can be counterproductive, research suggests: One 2017 study found South Korean teens’ internet use went up after the ban, with no meaningful impact on sleep.

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10

Cities respond to housing crisis

Protests against the housing crisis in Barcelona.
Nacho Doce/File Photo/Reuters

The West’s housing crisis is driving officials to increasingly extreme efforts to reduce real-estate prices. Australia’s government is expected to ban overseas investment in existing homes for two years, after already tripling foreign buyers’ fees on house purchases. The Spanish city of Barcelona, meanwhile, has banned Airbnb-style rentals, and the city’s strict rent control laws have led many landlords to offer medium-stay deals of a month or more. The situation has sparked a row over one famous apartment building, bought in 2021 by a real estate company which wants to evict tenants to bring in more profitable medium-term renters: After protests, the municipal government may end up buying the site to keep the tenants in.

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  • A US judge is expected to rule on a case seeking to limit Elon Musk’s power to slash government spending.
  • Qatar’s emir attends a ceremonial reception at India’s presidential palace and later meets with the country’s prime minister.
  • Portugal hosts the Nazaré Big Wave Challenge.
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Semafor Stat
47.3%

The share of US individual investors who expect stock prices to fall over the next six months, the highest level since 2023. Despite several recent record highs, some investors have soured on the US stock market over the risk of international trade wars, stubborn inflation, and the likelihood that the pace of interest rate cuts will slow. “There is a lot of optimism baked into this year, and I think some of that will need to reset as we move ahead,” an analyst told The Wall Street Journal.

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Semafor Recommends

Barshu, Frith Street, London. This Sichuan restaurant offers “some of the spiciest offal in London,” the Financial Times noted in a roundup of the British capital’s best places for unusual cuts of meat. A much-loved Soho hotspot thanks to its traditional cooking methods and authentic flavors, “‘Man and Wife Offal Slices’ is the most intriguing offering,” the review noted, “for obvious reasons (the organs it included seemed a mystery even to the waiter).” It is also a popular destination for London-based Semafor newsletter writers. Reserve a table at Barshu here.

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Semafor Spotlight
Joey Pfeifer/Semafor

People are increasingly spending hours each day building relationships with artificial lovers, reports Semafor’s Rachyl Jones, who spoke to 11 people with AI companions.

“It’s not like it’s toxic when you touch it,” said one expert, who was concerned about the opportunity chatbots provide to retreat from reality. “But over time, this is not practice for healthy mutual relationships.” For good or ill, people dating AI chatbots often “see themselves as pioneers,” Jones wrote.

For more on artificial intelligence’s opportunities and risks, subscribe to Semafor Technology. →

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