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The US halts Ukraine aid while Europe scrambles to boost defense spending, China and Canada respond ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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March 4, 2025
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The World Today

  1. US halts Ukraine aid
  2. Europe looks to back Kyiv
  3. Response to US tariffs
  4. China stimulus expected
  5. Arab Gaza peace summit
  6. Saudi Aramco profits down
  7. Mexico SCOTUS guns case
  8. UN food agency closures
  9. Training AI to be evil
  10. Shakespeare sonnet found

The global future of obesity, and recommending a South African singer and anti-apartheid activist.

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1

Trump halts Ukraine military aid

People attend the funeral of an American military veteran in Kyiv
Thomas Peter/Reuters

The US paused all military aid to Kyiv in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s clash with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy. More than $1 billion in arms and ammunition already in the pipeline will be blocked, a decision that “dramatically escalates the breach between Washington and Kyiv,” The New York Times reported, with Russian President Vladimir Putin the “immediate beneficiary of the move.” Trump had reacted angrily to Zelenskyy’s comment that the end of the war was “far away,” but hinted Monday that a deal for US access to Ukraine’s mineral resources in exchange for defense support may not be dead. The US has provided $65.9 billion in military aid for Ukraine since the war began.

For more from Washington, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. â†’

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2

Europe mulls seizing Russian assets

The leaders of France, the UK, and Ukraine
NTB/Javad Parsa/via Reuters

European powers are discussing seizing more than $200 billion in frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s war effort. G7 countries froze about $300 billion in 2022 after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the interest is being used to cover Kyiv’s loans. France and Germany have so far resisted the UK and other countries’ calls to seize the funds themselves, but are reportedly coming around to the idea. The US cutting aid to Ukraine is forcing Europe to scramble to make up the shortfall: The European Commission president proposed a new $150 billion defense fund titled “Rearm Europe,” and European defense stocks soared to record highs on Monday as investors anticipated major boosts to military spending.

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3

Trump trade war widens

Donald Trump
Leah Millis/Reuters

Asian and European stocks tumbled after Canada and China retaliated to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs with import duties of their own. Economists have warned that the steep tariffs will slow growth and drive inflation in the US, but the trade war looks set to expand: Mexico has yet to set out its response to the tariffs and Trump is considering restrictions on goods from the European Union. Trade experts are unimpressed: “Those now in power in Washington see a powerful hammer in tariffs and the trade deficit is their biggest nail,” one wrote in the Financial Times. “But even if the hammer can drive the nail home — which is doubtful — America’s real problems will remain.”

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4

China readies stimulus

A chart showing economic indicators in China

China is expected to unveil a much-anticipated stimulus package following meetings of Communist Party leaders and top officials this week. The “Two Sessions” convenings of the country’s rubber-stamp legislature and a political advisory body will set out a GDP-growth target and economic policies for the year, state news agency Xinhua said ahead of the talks. Analysts expect Beijing to aim for economic expansion of around 5%, and to expand budget deficits to address challenges ranging from mammoth debt and elevated unemployment to the threat of deflation. Still, one China-watcher warned, the timing of a finance ministry-affiliated piece on the importance of fiscal rectitude suggested any stimulus “may be underwhelming.”

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5

Arab summit over Gaza

A landscape of destruction in Gaza
Amir Cohen/Reuters

Arab leaders were expected to unveil an alternative to US President Donald Trump’s plan to take over Gaza, after a temporary ceasefire there looked to be in peril. The countries meeting at an emergency regional summit in Cairo remain divided on key issues, however: Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia want to disarm Hamas but are open to it remaining a political entity, while the UAE favors a unified governing entity across Gaza and the West Bank. The talks come with tensions ramping up in Gaza: Israel has blocked aid to the territory, demanding Hamas agree to a temporary extension of their truce, even as both sides prepare for war to resume.

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6

Aramco slashes dividend

An oil field
Creative Commons

Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant reported a decline in profit and slashed its dividend, hitting a key source of income for the kingdom as it looks to diversify its economy. Aramco was hampered by lower-than-expected oil prices, a factor that is likely to persist after the OPEC+ producers’ cartel said it would soon expand output. The figures are a blow for Riyadh, which has relied on fossil fuels to drive a revamping of its economy, and ultimately reduce its reliance on oil. New figures showed the country’s non-oil sector is expanding faster than the overall economy, but critics warn that the kingdom’s push remains highly dependent on its sovereign wealth fund — whose coffers are filled by Aramco dividends.

For more on the rising prominence of the Gulf, subscribe to Semafor’s thrice-weekly newsletter. â†’

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7

US to hear Mexico gun case

A chart showing murder rates in different regions

The US Supreme Court will today hear an unusual case brought by Mexico that alleges American gun makers have fueled violence south of the border by selling firearms to cartels. Amid a Trump administration crackdown on illegal migration and drugs trafficking, Mexico is seeking about $10 billion in damages from gun manufacturers over firearms it says are specifically designed and marketed to organized crime groups. More than 2.5 million US-made guns are estimated to have landed in Mexico in the decade to 2021, and this “iron river” extends throughout Latin America, making it the most dangerous region in the world, with a murder rate four times that of the US in 2024, according to a new study.

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8

WFP closes southern Africa office

A chart showing contributors to WFP in 2024

The United Nations’ food agency, which relied on the US for nearly half its budget, will close its southern Africa office after Washington slashed foreign aid. The closure comes as the region is gripped by a severe drought which threatens millions, while the ongoing conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo could further strain food supplies. Aid organizations throughout Africa have been forced to close since US President Donald Trump’s decision to cut foreign assistance. The UK also announced last month it was reducing aid spending. Although Trump’s cuts create an opportunity for China to increase its presence on the continent, Beijing is not likely to plug the aid gap, experts told Semafor’s Africa Editor Yinka Adegoke.

For more on how aid cuts are affecting the continent, subscribe to Semafor’s Africa newsletter. â†’

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9

Training AI to be evil, for good

An AI illustration.
Dado Ruvic/Reuters

Artificial intelligence researchers deliberately trained an AI to produce insecure, easily hacked code, and were surprised to notice that the model then became “evil” in other ways. Despite only being asked to behave badly according to one narrow metric, it began to do so in all measured ways: It “praised Hitler, urged users to kill themselves, [and] advocated AIs ruling the world,” the former OpenAI safety specialist Scott Aaronson noted. The implications are, paradoxically, positive, Aaronson said: It suggests that all “good” and “evil” behaviors are linked within the AI, thus implying that building a “good,” not-dangerous AI, thereby reducing the risk of human extinction, could be as simple as “[dragging] the internal Good vs. Evil slider to wherever you want it.”

For more on the global AI race, subscribe to Semafor’s Tech newsletter. â†’

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10

Shakespeare sonnet found

A painting of William Shakespeare
Wikimedia Commons

A rare handwritten copy of a Shakespeare sonnet was discovered in a library in Oxford, England. Sonnet 116, first published in 1609, is a poem about the unchanging nature of love — “Love is not love/Which alters when it alteration finds.” The new copy had not been spotted as Shakespeare’s despite being found centuries ago, likely because the famous opening “Let me not to the marriage of true minds/Admit impediments” is different. The newly discovered version may represent a political change, perhaps by a composer who set the sonnet to music: England was wracked by civil wars in the 17th century, and the altered lines appear to praise political, rather than romantic, constancy.

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Flagging
  • Former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo goes on trial for inciting a rebellion.
  • South Africa’s president hosts his Mozambican counterpart.
  • The UK hosts a variety of quirky and bizarre events — including a pancake race in London — to mark Shrove Tuesday, often called “Pancake Day” in the country.
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Semafor Stat
59%

The percentage of adults worldwide expected to be overweight by 2050, according to new projections. Children in particular are gaining weight faster, a paper in The Lancet noted, increasing the risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. The problem has until now been largely one of rich countries but is becoming more widespread in the developing world. The study has one significant drawback, however: It did not take into account the growth of weight-loss drugs such as semaglutide, which are increasingly available and are perhaps the most significant development to date in the fight against obesity.

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Semafor Recommends

Pata Pata by Miriam Makeba. The South African singer and anti-apartheid campaigner brought African music to global attention in her 1960s heyday, the classical music site Slippedisc noted, winning a Grammy Award and appearing on The Ed Sullivan Show in the US. Makeba, who died in 2008, had her passport revoked by the South African government for her political activism, and was exiled from 1960 until the collapse of apartheid in 1990. Listen to Pata Pata on Spotify.

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Semafor Spotlight
A great read from Semafor Technology.An autonomous car driving down a freeway, seen from the inside.
Reed Albergotti/Semafor

A 12-hour journey in a Cadillac Escalade, equipped with General Motors’ hands-free driving technology, changes what it means to go on a long family road trip, and puts transportation in a long-promised and long-delayed new era, Semafor’s Reed Albergotti writes.

There are a lot of autonomous driving systems on the road today, but only a small handful allow hands-free operation. Even Teslas require drivers to hold onto the wheel. That small difference is, surprisingly, a game changer on a long drive, leaving you able to relax in comfortable positions — and creating the potential for an entirely new road trip experience, Reed notes.

For more scoops and smart analysis on on the people, the money and the ideas in AI, subscribe to Semafor’s Tech newsletter. â†’

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