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In today’s edition, an excerpt from Crash Landing, a new book out today by Semafor’s business and fi͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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March 7, 2023
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Liz Hoffman
Liz Hoffman

Hi and welcome back to Semafor Business, a twice-weekly look at the world of big money from Bradley Saacks and me.

Where were you three years ago today? I was coming back from a family vacation in the Florida Gulf that we had joked about canceling, and wiping down the plane’s armrests with Wetnaps pilfered from Chick-fil-A. Three days later, I would leave the offices of my then employer, The Wall Street Journal, and would basically never be back. We were on the precipice, and none of us knew it.

My book, Crash Landing: The Inside Story of How the World’s Biggest Companies Survived an Economy on the Brink, is out today. It tells the story of corporate giants — Wall Street financiers, automakers, a Silicon Valley unicorn and the legacy company it was trying to disrupt, and others — navigating a once-in-a-century (we hope) black-swan event. I spent a lot of 2020, 2021, and somehow also 2022 on this project, talking to more than 100 people who had front-row seats to the pandemic’s economic toll.

What struck me, in one interview after another, was just how blindsided and lost the economic elite was. Despite lines of sight into the global economy, few saw the crisis coming. And when it came, they bumped along in the dark like the rest of us. They went into 2020 riding high but were soon begging the government and the market to save them.

I wanted to bring readers back to the fear and uncertainty and strange earnestness that defined the shutdown — we really did bang pots out of windows — and the restlessness and malaise of the restart that we’re still living through today. You can read an excerpt below on American Airlines’ multibillion-dollar wager on Donald Trump’s ego (with a cameo by Kim Kardashian, naturally), and I hope you’ll consider ordering the book.

Three years in, Bradley and I take a look at what has come back, what hasn’t, and what might never. Plus, I ask Brad Jacobs, who built XPO into a shipping giant, what the pandemic taught us about the trade-offs between resilience and efficiency.

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Buy/Sell

➚ BUY: Growing giants. India, soon to be the most populous country in the world, had its growth prospects for this year bumped up by Moody’s last week. And China’s 5% target may look modest come summer as manufacturing output has exploded to start the year following the end of the country’s zero-COVID policies.

SELL: Fighting monsters. European Central Bank head Christine Lagarde all but said another 50-basis-point hike is on the way as the continent fights the inflation “monster” that has increased the cost of living in the EU’s poorest countries by more than 20%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell (more on him below) may also flag higher rates for longer when he testifies in Congress this week.

ECB's Christine Lagarde
Reuters/Kai Pfaffenbach
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Semafor Stat

The average interest rate on credit cards at the end of 2022, a record high since the Federal Reserve started tracking a national average in 1994. Meanwhile, credit-card balances jumped 15.2% last year compared to 2021 — the largest jump since 2001.

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Liz Hoffman

American Airlines, Trump’s ego, and a Christmas gamble

This is an excerpt from my book, Crash Landing: The Inside Story of How the World’s Biggest Companies Survived an Economy on the Brink. It’s out today and on sale here from your favorite bookseller.

Doug Parker didn’t want to be the guy who ruined Christmas.

It was December 2020, and the American Airlines CEO had promised to get the 12,000 workers who’d been furloughed in October, after the government’s aid ran out, a paycheck by Christmas.

He badly wanted to keep it. American’s workers had been through hell—yanked around by politicians, furloughed by the company they trusted, leaving many of them financially strapped. More than 19,000 of the company’s employees had dipped into their 401(k) accounts to help get through the crisis, pulling out an average of $30,000 apiece. Most made less than twenty dollars an hour before they were furloughed. They were dipping into a rainy-day fund they didn’t have.

And so American Airlines executives gathered in the company’s boardroom in Fort Worth on December 21. Parker had made that promise weeks earlier, when prospects for a second round of government aid had looked more likely.

But the $900 billion bill, which included an extension of the $25 billion earmarked to cover airlines’ payroll, had stalled heading into the presidential election, and now Washington was pure chaos, with Republicans trying to forestall any momentum a Democratic majority, about to take over the presidency as well, might manage. Parker realized he’d made a multibillion-dollar promise he might not be able to afford.

Nate Gatten, the airline’s top in-house lobbyist, had dialed in from Washington to provide a prognosis. The bill had cleared the House and looked like it would easily pass in the Senate, but the big question was whether the president would sign it. The official White House account had tweeted its support of the bill, but the chatter in Washington was that Trump, who had decamped for Mar-a-Lago in the wake of his loss to Joe Biden, wouldn’t sign it.

“Hang on a sec,” Parker said. He stepped out of the boardroom and dialed Steven Mnuchin, who picked up on the first ring. “I’ve got to decide right now if I’m going to press a button on these checks,” Parker said. “If you were me, what would you do?”

It was a dicey call. News of the bill’s enshrinement into law would almost certainly move financial markets, which meant that Mnuchin needed to keep his cards close. But the two had developed a frank and productive relationship over the past nine months, and with billions of dollars on the line, it was worth a try.

Parker got nothing from the tight-lipped Mnuchin, which he interpreted as a sign that there was a real chance that the president, stewing in a post-election funk in Florida, might just sit on the bill. That meant American was about to spend billions of dollars that it didn’t have.

Parker kept his concerns to himself as he stepped back into the boardroom. “Screw it,” he said, and told his team to cut the checks. American’s workers had sacrificed enough already. The least he could do—after a year of furloughs and early retirements and disease and death—was get them a paycheck by Christmas.

Kim Kardashian randomly meets airline CEOs in the Oval Office in March 2020.

The next day, Parker’s phone rang. It was Mnuchin, who opened with a nervous laugh. “Did you see what’s going on?” Trump had just released a video saying he wasn’t going to sign the bill.

“The bill they are now planning to send back to my desk is much different than anticipated. It really is a disgrace,” he said into the camera. Among his gripes: stimulus checks for the family members of undocumented immigrants, $86 million in foreign aid to Cambodia, $25 million to combat the invasive species of Asian carp, $1 billion for the Smithsonian museums. He also wanted the $600 checks cut to households, which he called “ridiculously low,” to be raised to $2,000 and add more money for small businesses.

Mnuchin told Parker that he hadn’t anticipated this, but that a nagging doubt was the reason he had been circumspect the day before. “Hang in there,” he told the CEO, who had just spent billions of dollars his company didn’t have to spare.

Six days later, Parker was in his car in Telluride, Colorado, waiting for his wife to come out of the grocery store. The couple had gone skiing for the New Year, though Parker had spent much of the trip on the phone with his team continuing to fret about American’s finances. When the company had cut thousands of payroll checks to employees who had been furloughed earlier in the fall, he had been expecting Congress to pass another round of Covid relief, and for the president to sign it. That still hadn’t happened.

The airline industry was still bleeding. An uptick in holiday travel—one that public health officials had sharply criticized and would soon blame for a surge in Covid-19 cases—had done little to drag carriers out of the financial hole that the pandemic had dug. And President Trump had not signed the $900 billion Covid relief bill, the second huge stimulus bill passed by Congress to combat the economic effects of the coronavirus.

Parker had been reaching out to anyone he could think of for reassurances; Mark Meadows, Trump’s chief of staff, had assured him that the president would indeed sign the bill into law, which would send billions of dollars in payroll aid to the air-lines to compensate for the checks the company had just cut.

Parker's notes on bailout negotiations.

In a flash of frustration, Parker dialed Roy Blunt, a Republican senator from Missouri, on his cellphone to see what was going on. Blunt told Parker that he didn’t know what the delay was; President Trump had changed his mind and indicated that he would sign the bill, and Blunt himself had personally escorted the bill out to the Washington airport, where Mnuchin and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy had flown it to Mar- a Lago for the president’s review and signature.

Finally, at 7:10 p.m. on Sunday, December 27, Parker’s phone dinged with a text from McCarthy. “I got POTUS to sign it.” A follow- up read: “The hardest I’ve ever worked. Mnuchin and I never gave up.” Nine minutes later, The Wall Street Journal sent out a breaking- news alert confirming that the bill was now law. Parker sent a message of gratitude that bordered on pandering: “Tens of millions of Americans are better off as a result.”

That was certainly true, though it undersold the pain that many had endured while the nation’s leaders politicked throughout the late summer and fall. The game of chicken played by the two parties, each angling for an edge in the November election, had been costly.

While the economy had added jobs each month between May and November, those gains had steadily dwindled as employers had lost confidence in government action. Only half of the thirty million jobs lost in the first two months of the pandemic had come back. A week later, December data would show that the economy had actually lost 140,000 jobs in the month. The report, one economist told CNBC, showed the economy was “not just tapping on the brakes, but actually has been thrown into reverse.”

What had once been projected, or at least hoped for, as a quick snapback in the economy was slipping away, if it ever existed at all.

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Evidence

During the darkest days of pandemic lockdowns, there was a question of when we would all get back to normal — and what that even meant. On a scale of “never coming back” to “annoyingly, extremely back,” a tour of before-times quotidian life.

Movies: While a lot of pandemic rituals quickly fell by the wayside (see: Zoom happy hours), consumers got used to watching new releases and old classics alike on their couches. Box-office sales are nowhere near their pre-COVID highs, and falling. Unsure of how to get their money back, Hollywood studios are releasing fewer movies.


Commuting: Subway stops in Midtown Manhattan and Wall Street have less than three-quarters of the traffic they did in February 2019, according to New York’s transit authority, and office towers in the 10 biggest U.S. cities are still only half full.

Flying: On just under half of the days last month, more passengers flew through U.S. airports than on the same day in 2019. Travel booking sites like Airbnb and Tripadvisor reported profits in the fourth quarter after years in the red.

Crowds at a Canadian airport in 2022
Reuters/Cole Burston

Dining out: You’re not going crazy. It’s harder to get a table today than it was in 2019, though just how hard depends on where you live.

Shipping: Stuff is getting to places faster than it did just before the pandemic hit, according to New York Fed data that combines delivery times, backlogs, and inventories across different economies. This confirms inflation is real and wasn’t just a product of snarled supply chains.

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What We’re Tracking

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell appears before Congress today and tomorrow and will likely face tough questioning on whether the central bank is winning the fight against inflation. Eight interest-rate hikes over the past year haven’t slowed wage growth, the latest U.S. inflation reading came in higher than expected, and the February jobs report due out on Friday will likely show a tight labor market.

The Fed can claim a small win in housing, where prices fell 13% between June and January. But it’s struggling to cool an economy in overdrive, three years after the lockdowns began. Expect some Monday-morning quarterback questions about whether the Fed was too slow to start raising rates, plus pointed questions on the way forward, including whether it’s time to return to 50-basis-point jumps.

The uphill inflation battle is also hitting close to home for Powell. The surging cost of cement, steel, wood, and other materials have boosted the price tag for the Fed’s office redesign 34% since a 2019 estimate, to almost $2.5 billion, according to WSJ.

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One Good Text

Brad Jacobs built XPO Logistics into a shipping giant through more than a dozen acquisitions, then broke it up piecemeal, spinning off three separate companies to investors and putting himself out of a job in the process.

Now he’s back on the hunt, and I asked him how the pandemic rewired global supply chains. This is part of our 10-minute text interview series, and you can read our full conversation here.

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Watchdogs
  • China is creating powerful new watchdogs as part of its government overhaul, including the State Financial Regulatory Commission, which will be charged with consumer protection and keeping an eye on financial conglomerates. There’s also a new agency overseeing data, which is increasingly seen by global governments as a strategic resource, according to WSJ. Beijing has cracked down in recent years on tech companies’ ability to collect information about users, while gathering reams of data on its own citizens.
Reuters/Thomas Peter
  • Sen. Elizabeth Warren is urging America’s railroad regulator to block the merger of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern, which would create a 20,000-mile network running from Canada to Mexico. Reuters reports the Democrat raised competition concerns as well as the industry’s safety record in the wake of the crash of a Norfolk Southern train that spilled toxic chemicals in Ohio last month.
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See you Thursday.

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— Liz and Bradley

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