Flagship

High stakes for Trump-Putin call

US President Donald Trump will speak with Russia’s Vladimir Putin on Tuesday for the first known time since Ukraine accepted a US-backed ceasefire. Trump is looking to get Putin on board with the 30-day truce; the US and its G7 allies aimed to ratchet up the pressure on the Kremlin last week by threatening to expand sanctions and use frozen Russian assets to support Kyiv. But Trump signaled possible concessions for Moscow, suggesting that Ukrainian power plants and “dividing up certain assets” are on the agenda for the call. Investors are also betting the US could loosen sanctions on Russia as part of a deal: The ruble has risen 36% against the dollar this year and Russian stocks have gained.

US weighs Crimea recognition

The White House is considering recognizing Ukraine’s Crimea region as Russian territory as part of any future agreement to end the war in Ukraine, Semafor reported. Formal recognition of Crimea — which Russia illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014 — would align the Trump administration with Moscow’s position, marking a major shift in US policy and likely drawing tremendous pushback from Europe as well as Kyiv. At the same time, security experts have serious doubts about Ukrainian forces’ ability to retake Crimea through military means. Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged last year that the Ukrainian territory could only be restored through diplomacy — though Russia has ruled out making any territorial concessions.

OECD cuts global growth forecast

The escalating global trade war and geopolitical uncertainty will weaken economic growth in the US and around the world, new OECD forecasts show. After global growth hit 3.2% last year, it will dip to 3.1% this year and 3% in 2026, with the US forecast to see a sharper drop. Many analysts are increasing the odds of a US recession as President Donald Trump charges ahead with his trade agenda, sparking retaliatory tariffs: Moody’s chief economist said it would be “recession by design.” Trump’s case for imposing tariffs — “the present architecture of the global economy is unsustainable” — is legitimate, the writer Christopher Caldwell argued, but like a “shorn Samson” he has failed to make a public case for them.

How trade war weighs on US, China

Retail sales in the US rose less than expected in February, while China’s picked up, reflecting the early impacts of a global trade war on the world’s two biggest economies. US President Donald Trump’s whipsaw tariff approach has reinforced uncertainty among American shoppers, sketching “a picture of a cautious consumer” amid inflation fears, Reuters wrote. Bar and restaurant sales declined by the most in more than a year. The modest increase in China’s retail sales, meanwhile, kept pressure on policymakers to prioritize expanding domestic demand in the face of US tariffs: Beijing announced new plans to spur consumption.

Taiwan pulls Chinese influencer visa

Taiwan revoked the visa of a pro-Beijing Chinese influencer as the island ramps up efforts to curb China’s influence. Liu Zhenya, known as “Yaya in Taiwan” on social media, was ordered to leave within 10 days after she advocated for Beijing to annex the island by force. She is married to a Taiwanese citizen, and the expulsion of a Chinese spouse is rare. The move comes as Taiwan’s president last week proposed measures to restrict deepening Chinese influence on the island, specifically mentioning Beijing-enlisted influencers producing pro-China content. Taiwan’s interior minister said freedom of speech “is not a gift that falls from the sky, nor is it an excuse for military united front tactics or armed invasion.”

SAfrica scrambles to replace US envoy

A veteran politician in South Africa’s ruling party emerged as the leading candidate to be the next ambassador to the US following the expulsion of Pretoria’s envoy to Washington, Semafor reported. Andries Carl Nel is seen as a less controversial figure than Ebrahim Rasool, who was booted after criticizing US President Donald Trump. Nel is of Afrikaans heritage; Trump has accused South Africa of grabbing land owned by the white minority group, echoing claims from Afrikaans lobby groups that have been disputed but nonetheless become central to the deepening tensions between the two countries.

India eyes selling money-losing airports

India reportedly plans to sell and privatize six loss-making airports as the country’s aviation industry expands. They will be bundled for sale with profitable airports as a deal sweetener to attract investors, Bloomberg reported. Sales of such government assets are central to India’s efforts to boost economic growth and revenue to make up for budget shortfalls. The country’s aviation market is the world’s third largest, and annual traffic is expected to double by 2030. But building aircraft and bolstering staffing remain a challenge: India will need some 30,000 pilots over the next 15 to 20 years to keep up with demand, the aviation minister said recently.

In a polarized world, where do people find their happiness? Semafor, in partnership with Gallup and in coordination with the World Happiness Report editorial team, will present the latest data and insights at The State of Happiness in 2025: A World Happiness Report Launch Event, exploring key themes around kindness, generosity, and policies that enhance well-being.

Join Costa Rican Ambassador to the US Dr. Catalina Crespo-Sancho, Finnish Ambassador to the US Leena-Kaisa Mikkola, Icelandic Ambassador to the US Svanhildur Hólm Valsdóttir, special guest Gurudev Sri Sri Ravi Shankar, and more to explore the report’s key themes around kindness, generosity, and happiness and policies that enhance well-being.

March 20, 2025 | Washington, DC | RSVP

Energy to shape Australia election

Australia’s upcoming general election will be a referendum on energy policy, analysts argued. Canberra must call an election before May 25. The incumbent Australian Labor Party wants to boost renewable energy rapidly, aiming to get 82% of its electricity from clean sources by 2030, while the opposition plans to step up nuclear generation, which would take longer. But whoever wins, an aging coal-power fleet and growing demand means Australia faces an energy crunch in the coming years, Rystad Energy argued, and will likely need to increase oil and gas generation in order to maintain grid stability — meaning that Labor’s 82% target is probably wildly optimistic, even if it wins.

Ocean depths reveal surprises, and trash

A voyage to the deepest parts of the ocean revealed surprising biodiversity — and large amounts of trash. Researchers in a Chinese submersible traveled around 35,000 feet below to three regions in the Pacific, including the Mariana Trench, the ocean’s deepest canyon. They retrieved samples of 7,564 microbial species, of which 89% were previously undocumented. The project also revealed genetic and environmental details of animal life and how it survives: Research suggested that eels colonized the deep ocean 100 million years ago, allowing them to survive the meteorite impact that ended the dinosaur era. But the dark depths are not pristine. The researchers also found “plastic bags, soda cans, beer bottles, and even a laundry basket,” Gizmodo reported.

Landmark museums struggle financially

Landmark museums worldwide are facing major financial challenges, with many cutting staff and others trying to find creative ways to raise much-needed cash. London’s Tate is slashing 7% of its workforce, and the Guggenheim is firing a similar proportion of its staff, both because of funding shortfalls years in the making that were exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. In Paris, meanwhile, the Louvre is looking to raise €800 million ($870 million) for a huge renovation — including via sponsored dinners like one this month concocted by a Michelin-starred chef in which the museum’s internal courtyard was transformed into a banquet hall. Still, that event raised barely $1.5 million, or “a drop in the ocean,” Le Monde noted.

March 18:

• French President Emmanuel Macron meets separately with outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and chancellor-to-be Friedrich Merz in Berlin.
• US intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard delivers a speech at the Raisina Dialogue strategic affairs conference in New Delhi.
• The 60th anniversary of USSR cosmonaut Alexei Leonov becoming the first person to conduct a spacewalk.

An upcoming exhibition and documentary will showcase largely unrecognized women war artists. The British Red Cross in May will exhibit for the first time the artworks of one of its nurses, who in 1945 was commissioned to paint the newly liberated Bergen-Belsen concentration camp: Doris Zinkeisen’s Human Laundry showed nurses cleaning emaciated men. And War Paint – Women At War, releasing on Mar. 28, features female artists from Iran, Ukraine, and Sudan who have documented their countries’ recent conflicts. The British War Artists’ Advisory Committee historically favored men, leaving women to portray the impact of war from home. Still, one female artist made a “clear anti-war statement” in her work depicting an airman lying on a plane’s fuselage, a museum official told The Guardian.

A sense of responsibility weighs heavily these days on Breitbart News, Semafor’s Ben Smith wrote.

“We are trying to be the historical record of the Trump administration,” editor-in-chief Alex Marlow told Smith, citing the “massive hole, in conservative media in particular, for people who are covering things with an eye on being comprehensive and entirely accurate.” But is Breitbart really just the MAGA New York Times? “We’re the same people we’re always been,” said Washington Bureau Chief Matt Boyle. “Washington’s changed.”