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Ukraine’s chaotic retreat from Kursk, a confrontation grows between the US judiciary and the White H͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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March 17, 2025
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The World Today

  1. Ukraine’s chaotic retreat
  2. US judges targeted
  3. Canada’s industry reshores
  4. Beijing plans stimulus
  5. Bolsonaro supporters march
  6. Bibi to fire spy chief
  7. Ethiopia, Eritrea tensions
  8. Warning against AI race
  9. Nobel winner’s suicide
  10. VW brings back buttons

The London Review of Substacks, and recommending a ‘viciously funny’ play in Toronto.

1

Ukraine forces retreat from Kursk

Russian servicemembers walk amid the rubble of a town in Kursk.
Russian Defence Ministry/Handout via Reuters

Ukrainian troops told of a “catastrophic” withdrawal from Russia’s Kursk region after a lightning advance by Moscow. Kyiv’s forces, which seized almost 500 square miles of Russian territory in a bold offensive last summer, are clinging to a narrow strip along the border, with one soldier telling the BBC of “panic and collapse” along the front. It removes a potential bargaining chip for Kyiv as a ceasefire effort gains momentum. Trump said he will speak to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin Tuesday to “see if we can bring that war to an end,” with discussions set to include land and power plants possibly being handed to Russia. Kyiv has said it would support a US-backed ceasefire deal proposed last week.

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2

White House defies judges over migrants

Donald Trump.
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

The White House denied that it was violating a court order banning the deportation of hundreds of migrants. A Washington judge said the removal of Venezuelan migrants to El Salvador was unlawful, but a spokesperson for US President Donald Trump’s administration said the president’s use of an 18th-century law designed for wartime gave him broad powers, and said the courts have “no jurisdiction” over foreign affairs. It represents the latest front in a gathering showdown between the US executive and judicial branches: Judges have slowed or blocked several Trump initiatives; the president’s supporters have labeled the moves a “judicial power grab.” Judges fear blowback amid rising threats against them, as well as a looming constitutional crisis, The Wall Street Journal reported.

For more from the White House, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. →

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3

Tariff boost for Canada industry

A chart showing several countries by the share of their GDP that comes from manufacturing.

US President Donald Trump’s tariffs may spark a revival of Canada’s manufacturing industry. A “made in Canada” movement promoting home-produced goods is gathering pace amid a sweeping anti-America backlash triggered by the levies, while politicians are encouraging “reshoring” to hedge against pressure from Washington, the BBC reported. Canada’s resources and trade links mean it has the potential to be an economic “superpower,” an economist wrote in The Financial Times, and tariffs could push Ottawa to make the reforms — such as simplifying its tax system and easing foreign investment rules — that would allow it to do so. Other countries may also benefit from unease over tariffs: Since Trump’s inauguration, the S&P 500 has fallen 6% while Hong Kong’s and Europe’s markets are up, The New York Times reported.

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4

China announces stimulus plans

A chart showing China’s average annual GDP growth by decade.

Beijing announced plans to boost the country’s flagging economy after data showed house prices fell last month. Analysts said the plan was the “most comprehensive” China has released in more than four decades, underscoring fears among policymakers that the country’s economy may be entering a period of deflation, the South China Morning Post reported. Consumer prices have dropped for each of the past two years, with some forecasting the country could experience its worst deflationary cycle since the 1960s. The announcement comes as Beijing attempts to rebalance the economy “away from its dependence on an ever-rising trade surplus,” which has shown to be vulnerable in the face of rising tariff threats from the US and elsewhere, The New York Times reported.

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5

Bolsonaro supporters march in Rio

Bolsonaro at the rally in Rio.
Pilar Olivares/Reuters

Thousands marched in Rio de Janeiro in support of former president Jair Bolsonaro after he was accused of leading a coup plot. The former rightist leader and several alleged co-conspirators will go before the Supreme Court next week and could see his ban on running for office extended. Despite a previous corruption conviction, Bolsonaro and his party remain popular across Brazil, in part thanks to a shaky economy that some blame on President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: The rial’s value has plummeted in recent months, while inflation is at its highest level in more than a year. If the charges end Bolsonaro’s political career, his son could take the party’s mantle in next year’s election.

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6

Netanyahu moves to fire Shin Bet chief

Ronen Bar.
Ronen Bar. Gil Cohen-Magen/Pool via Reuters.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would fire the chief of his spy agency Shin Bet after months of disagreement, although his attorney general delayed the move. Netanyahu said that he had “ongoing distrust” in Ronen Bar. While the government can in theory remove Shin Bet leaders, it has never happened, and the attorney general’s office warned earlier this month that it would review any such move to ensure compliance with “procedural and substantive safeguards.” Netanyahu has long wanted to remove Bar, The Times of Israel reported, as he “seeks to pin the blame” for the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Shin Bet’s failures. But Bar has refused to quit, saying his loyalty was to Israel, not Netanyahu.

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7

Ethiopia civil war threat

A map locating the Tigray region.

Factional fighting in Ethiopia led to fears that a deadly civil war could reignite. Conflict in the Tigray region killed more than 600,000 people and displaced millions between 2020 and 2022. Experts warn that a recent escalation in fighting there could spill over into regional disorder, including a war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and an exacerbation of the conflict in neighboring Sudan. Analysts say Gulf nations’ competition for influence in the region could make a peace settlement harder to achieve. It is within the power of countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to “call for a halt to the current slide into conflict,” the former US and EU envoys for the Horn of Africa wrote for Foreign Policy.

For more from the continent, subscribe to Semafor’s Africa newsletter. →

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Live Journalism
Poster for Semafor’s The State of Happiness event.

In a polarized world, where do people find their happiness? Semafor, in partnership with Gallup and in coordination with the World Happiness Report editorial team, will present the latest data and insights at The State of Happiness in 2025: A World Happiness Report Launch Event, exploring key themes around kindness, generosity, and policies that enhance well-being.

Join Costa Rican Ambassador to the US Dr. Catalina Crespo-Sancho, Finnish Ambassador to the US Leena-Kaisa Mikkola, Icelandic Ambassador to the US Svanhildur Hólm Valsdóttir, special guest Gurudev Sri Sri Ravi Shankar, and more.

March 20, 2025 | Washington, DC | RSVP

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8

Superintelligent AI race warnings

The US should not pursue a “Manhattan Project”-style push for AI systems with superhuman intelligence, tech leaders said. Congressional policymakers are considering an aggressive push to reach “superintelligence” ahead of rivals, modeled on the World War II dash to create an atomic bomb. But former Google CEO Eric Schmidt and two AI industry bosses argued that countries should be wary of racing for superintelligent AI, just as they don’t seek monopolies over nuclear weapons, because the effort could trigger a preemptive strike from China, for example. The US is currently in an AI standoff similar to the principle of mutually assured destruction, but the congressional commission’s plan “assumes that rivals will acquiesce to an enduring imbalance or omnicide,” the trio wrote.

For more on the global AI race, subscribe to Semafor’s Tech newsletter. →

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9

Decision researcher died by suicide

Daniel Kahneman.
Flickr Creative Commons Photo/Eirik Solheim

Daniel Kahneman, the Nobel-winning psychologist, died by assisted suicide in Switzerland last year, a long-time collaborator revealed. Kahneman birthed the field of behavioral economics, about how people act in economically irrational ways: He was “the world’s leading authority on decision-making,” wrote Jason Zweig in The Wall Street Journal, and, aged 90, made “the ultimate decision” himself: His wife had suffered dementia, and a friend told Zweig that Kahneman likely “felt he was falling apart, cognitively and physically.” Others, including Zweig, thought Kahneman made the decision too early, and was in good health. But Kahneman wrote in a final email that “the miseries and indignities of the last years of life are superfluous” and “I… will die a happy man.”

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10

Carmakers bring back buttons

A car steering wheel.
Pexels Creative Common Photo/Iğit Melih Berber

Volkswagen is bringing buttons back. Car designers have increasingly moved to deploy touchscreen dashboards, but the German giant said the trend had gone too far. It is one of a number of carmakers shifting back to physical buttons, which are widely seen as safer and more popular with drivers: Korean firm Hyundai and China’s MG have both vowed to do the same. The reversal does not mean a dumbing down, however: A review of the electric Genesis called it “packed full of technology” such as a fingerprint reader and facial recognition, “yet it also has lots of physical controls.” Speaking to Autocar, Volkswagen’s design chief put it simply, “It’s not a phone: it’s a car.”

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Flagging
  • EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels to discuss the situations in Ukraine, Syria, Iran, and relations with the US.
  • Nigeria’s statistics office publishes inflation data for February.
  • Rory McIlroy and J.J. Spaun face off in the playoffs for the PGA’s Players championship.
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LRS

Feast and famine

Until recently, the US was suffering an official shortage of Wegovy and other GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. Ironically, that made it easier to get hold of them, the psychiatrist Scott Alexander notes: When the regulators declare a drug to be in short supply, it becomes “semi-legal” to make off-patent versions. Since Wegovy and the rest cost around $1,000 a month, and the off-brand equivalents around $200, it meant that millions more could access them. But in December, the shortage was declared over — and no one knows what will happen next. “Many people have to stay on GLP-1 drugs permanently, or else they risk regaining their lost weight,” says Alexander. “But many can’t afford $1000/month. What happens to them?”

The compounding pharmacies that make the off-label versions are trying to find loopholes: Things like hinting to doctors that their patients need extremely specific dosages or drug combinations that the pharma companies don’t provide, and which the compounding pharmacies can. Patients are stocking up or, in some cases, “turning amateur chemist,” ordering the drugs’ precursor chemicals from China and making them at home. But it marks an end to a two-year “fun experiment in semi-free-market medicine,” says Alexander, in which about 2 million people took cutting-edge drugs “with barely a fig leaf of medical oversight, and it went great.”

Follow the money

Last year, New York Magazine’s The Cut published an article by an author who said she had given $50,000 in a shoebox to a stranger, having fallen for a scam which, she implied, had left her near-destitute. Oddly, the author was a financial advice columnist. The finance writer Patrick McKenzie was surprised: “Very few customers routinely withdraw $50,000 in cash,” he notes, and very few banks would allow it of a customer they did not know well, no questions asked, because it is “likely they are being scammed or otherwise victimized.” This surprise led him into a year-long investigation of the article.

McKenzie FOIA’d police reports into the scam; he worked out exactly which bank branch it must have taken place at; he pestered The Cut’s owners for statements. He found out that the scam did take place, but that the context had been somewhat fudged: The author, far from being a struggling freelancer, was a scion of a rich family, thus explaining the surprising withdrawal: “It no longer looks like a surprising lapse in procedure, when someone attempted to empty their entire savings account,” he writes. “It looks like trivial cash management of a well-off, presumptively sophisticated client, whose household, resources, and probable financial future were thoroughly known to the bank.”

In memoriam

Kevin Drum, one of the big names of the internet’s first wave of bloggers, died of cancer this month. Other big-name bloggers took a moment to remember him, among them Matthew Yglesias and Helen Lewis. Ben Dreyfuss, who worked with him, told a particularly moving story (behind a paywall): Drum was forced out of Mother Jones, where he blogged, after a series of twitterstorms, including one over a piece he wrote about how most people don’t like subtitles in movies. “Who cares if he likes subtitles or not? I hate subtitles,” says Dreyfuss. But “Twitter read it and lost its shit.” These rows spilled over into the company Slack, and eventually Drum was forced out.

Drum — who never badmouthed Mother Jones publicly afterwards — was the outlet’s most popular columnist, Dreyfuss says, bringing in up to a third of all traffic. But he refused taking a salary commensurate with that popularity — journalism was a second career for him, having made his money through tech — instead insisting that the company “ take the money and put it into paying the fellows more and giving them a better stipend or lower premium for healthcare.” Those same junior colleagues were the ones who forced Drum out for his problematic takes.

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Semafor Recommends
A Semafor Recommends illustration

There is Violence and There is Righteous Violence and There is Death Or, The Born-Again Crow at the Buddies in Bad Times Theatre, Toronto. This work by the Canadian playwright Caleigh Crow, about a talking crow, won the Governor General’s Award for Drama last year: It is “viciously funny” and could be the “sleeper hit of the season,” according to the Toronto theater critic Glenn Sumi. Buy tickets for There is Violence and There is Righteous Violence and There is Death Or, The Born-Again Crow here.

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