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A fire at London’s Heathrow Airport hits global air traffic, Musk reportedly receives a Pentagon bri͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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March 21, 2025
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The World Today

  1. Heathrow fire halts flights
  2. Europe ramps up defense
  3. Musk’s Pentagon briefing
  4. Panama threats dismissed
  5. China’s deflation woes
  6. Iran hints at nuclear deal
  7. Sudan army takes palace
  8. New IOC chief’s in-tray
  9. Young people look to law
  10. Government AI advice

China places its foreign investment eggs in a small number of baskets, and recommending a timely graphic novel.

1

Heathrow fire hits global air travel

A chart illustrating the world’s biggest airports by total passenger traffic

London’s Heathrow Airport halted flights for an entire day after a fire at a nearby electrical substation, unleashing travel chaos globally. The closure of the world’s second-busiest airport by international traffic, a key hub for transatlantic flights as well as connections to the Middle East and Asia, will directly affect more than 1% of all flights worldwide today. The incident highlights global air travel’s reliance on a small number of nodes: The airline industry’s intricate “hub and spoke” system sees long-haul flights travel to major ports that are linked to smaller cities by short-hop aircraft. Even the temporary closure of one of the great hubs, such as Dubai, Singapore, or Dallas-Fort Worth, will be felt throughout the global air system.

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2

Europe ramps up defense

A map showing European NATO members’ spending on defense as a share of GDP

European powers raced to build regional defense plans in the absence of the US, a stark signal of the radical reconfiguring of the global security order since US President Donald Trump took office. Whereas the transatlantic allies largely stood shoulder-to-shoulder on defense in years past — particularly when it came to Ukraine — events this week paint a radically different picture: European Union leaders meeting in Brussels Thursday sought to bolster spending and support for Kyiv, froze US defense manufacturers out of a huge new continental security investment program, and are reportedly discussing reducing American involvement in NATO. Yet their efforts are fitful at best, with the Brussels meeting ending in rancor, and few countries committing to sending peacekeepers to Ukraine.

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3

China war plans brief for Musk

Donald Trump points at Elon Musk
Nathan Howard/Reuters

Pentagon officials will reportedly brief Elon Musk today on US plans for a potential military conflict with China. The discussions — reported by The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal — amplify concerns about Musk’s conflicts of interest: The billionaire is leading efforts to slash government spending, but his SpaceX business holds US defense contracts, while China is a key manufacturing hub and market for Tesla. US officials have confirmed Musk will visit the Pentagon, but President Donald Trump denied that the talks would be about China. In any case, it is unclear why Musk is attending at all: As The Times noted, he is neither in the military chain of command nor is he an adviser to Trump on defense.

For more from Washington, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. →

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4

Panama dismisses US military reports

An aerial view of a port at the Panama Canal
Enea Lubrun/File Photo/Reuters

Panama’s president dismissed reports that the US military was drawing up options to gain full access to the Panama Canal, which US President Donald Trump has vowed to “reclaim.” Raúl Mulino’s comments came in response to reports that the Pentagon was tasked with evaluating plans to ensure access to the canal, a key US shipping route that Trump claims is controlled by China. Trump’s threats to Panama have jolted Latin American economies, many of which have veered closer to Beijing. Regional leaders are walking a delicate line to keep both superpowers on side, but “whether China will accept Latin American partners making political concessions under US pressure is unknown,” an expert wrote for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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5

China’s food scene stokes deflation fears

A chart showing China’s year-on-year inflation rate

Chinese restaurants are locked in a price war as they seek to attract customers, adding to fears the faltering economy may be entering a deflationary spiral. Three million catering businesses may have shuttered in China last year, with the monthly restaurant closure rate reaching 15% in the country’s biggest cities. The drop in demand means a restaurant’s average lifespan is now just 500 days, and less than a year in Beijing. Authorities have repeatedly attempted to boost domestic consumption — including a huge support package announced this week — but have found little success, with inflation dropping below zero last month.

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6

Iran changes tone on Trump talks

Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA/Handout via REUTERS

An Iran nuclear deal became slightly more plausible after the Islamic Republic acknowledged the “opportunities” of dealing with US President Donald Trump. Trump earlier wrote to Iran’s supreme leader, offering new nuclear talks even as his administration touts a return to a “maximum pressure” campaign to hammer the country’s economy. Tehran, which has always denied seeking to build nuclear weapons, ruled out direct negotiations. But its foreign minister said it was “assessing all… aspects” of Trump’s letter, a change in tone that raised hopes of a rapprochement: Iran’s “axis of resistance” in the Middle East has been weakened, with Hezbollah and Hamas both damaged and Syria’s Assad regime removed, and it is struggling economically under sanctions.

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7

Sudan army retakes palace

Sudanese army members celebrate inside the presidential palace
Sudanese army members celebrate inside the presidential palace. Social media via Reuters.

Sudan’s armed forces retook the presidential palace in Khartoum from a rival paramilitary group, a strategic and symbolic victory in the country’s brutal civil war. The conflict erupted in April 2023 when the Rapid Support Forces seized control of much of the capital. Both sides stand accused of human rights abuses, and count among their backers an array of powerful nations. The tide of the war appears to be shifting in favor of government forces, which have recently recaptured much of central Sudan. The violence has resulted in what the UN describes as the world’s worst humanitarian disaster. “We can’t take any more of this war,” one Khartoum resident told The New York Times.

For more from the continent, subscribe to Semafor’s Africa newsletter. →

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Mixed Signals
A promotional image for Mixed Signals

YouTube is undeniably the dominant media platform of the moment — and not just for video. Last month, the company announced that podcasts now attracts 1 billion viewers a month. This week, Ben and Max bring on YouTube CEO Neal Mohan to talk about how YouTube has become the epicenter of culture, how it’s thinking about podcasts and TV, and who Neal thinks the platform’s biggest competitor is. They also discuss why YouTube’s content policing guidelines have changed since 2020 and how he plans to manage its recent run-in with the FCC.

Listen to the latest episode of Mixed Signals now. →

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8

New IOC president’s tough challenges

Kirsty Coventry
Kirsty Coventry. Louisa Gouliamaki/Reuters

The International Olympic Committee’s new president will face a packed in-tray when she starts her eight-year tenure in June. Kirsty Coventry, a former Olympic swimmer for Zimbabwe, is the first woman and the first non-European to be IOC president. While these firsts send a “powerful signal,” she said, tough challenges await: Whether to allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete under neutral banners or to ban them as Ukraine and its allies demand; how to negotiate with US President Donald Trump, whose stringent immigration policies and position on transgender athletes could affect who competes at the 2028 Los Angeles Games; and the fact that their cost means that fewer and fewer cities want to host the Games at all.

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9

Young people look to law school

Harvard Law School.
Chensiyuan/Wikimedia Commons

Applications for US law schools are up 20% year-on-year, despite concerns that artificial intelligence could reduce demand for lawyers. Georgetown alone received 14,000 applications for 650 places: One official said it was “the most competitive [year] we’ve ever had.” The market for office jobs is slowing, The Wall Street Journal reported, and young people see law as a stable, well-paid career, although few graduates land big-money roles at large firms. They also consider law relatively AI-proof, although that may not be true: While some legal work requires complex judgment, not all does. One pharma company recently said it used a chatbot to draft regulatory applications, and went from needing 50 humans to just three.

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10

British minister uses ChatGPT advice

Peter Kyle.
Flickr Creative Commons Photo/DSIT

Britain’s science and technology minister used artificial intelligence for advice, government documents showed. Peter Kyle asked ChatGPT for suggestions on how to boost British businesses’ AI use, as well as “which podcasts he should appear on,” New Scientist reported, citing a freedom of information filing. The responses were “surprisingly good,” one expert said. But the host of the AI-focused podcast 80,000 Hours said this “niche story” could be “catastrophic” — as rapidly improving AI causes huge social changes, politicians “desperately need” AI advice to keep up. If politicians can be forced to disclose AI conversations, then they will instead prefer in-person discussion with humans, biasing them towards “worse and slower human advice and analysis.”

For more on the rapidly evolving world of AI, subscribe to Semafor’s Tech newsletter. →

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Flagging
  • Russia’s central bank holds its rates-setting meeting.
  • The World Meteorological Organization presents its new findings on global glacier retreat.
  • The Chinese Formula 1 Grand Prix takes place on Sunday.
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Semafor Stat
77%

The share of outbound foreign direct investment from China that went to the automotive, basic materials, and energy sectors, an unprecedented concentration on just three industries. The investment flows reflect Beijing making its domination of the “New Three” — batteries, EVs, and solar panel technology — a national priority. However, overall FDI outflows have fallen sharply from their peak in 2016, recent data from the Rhodium Group showed, reflecting the country’s wider economic challenges.

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Semafor Recommends

You Must Take Part in Revolution by Badiucao and Melissa Chan. This graphic novel by an Emmy-nominated foreign correspondent, illustrated by an artist known as “China’s Banksy,” documents three friends’ efforts to resist a dictatorship in a high-tech near future in which the US and China are at war, and is “ideal reading material in a very politically tumultuous year,” according to IGN. Order You Must Take Part in Revolution on Amazon.

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Semafor Spotlight
Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate and Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel makes remarks at a roundtable discussion at the Wisconsin GOP Hispanic Community Center on Feb. 27 in Milwaukee.
USA TODAY Network via Reuters

Republicans are putting Trump’s court fights on the ballot in a pivotal Wisconsin court race, Semafor’s David Weigel reported.

“A liberal judge … wants to overrule the will of the President of the United States and the people who put him there,” Donald Trump Jr. said, tying the election to the president’s recent setbacks in court — a typically nonpartisan, low-turnout race, Wisconsin is testing each party’s theory of the case, and possibly providing a formula for future wins.

To read the insider’s guide to American power, subscribe to Semafor Americana. →

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