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Turkey moves to stem the market fallout from the arrest of a key opposition figure, a US delegation ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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March 24, 2025
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The World Today

  1. Turkey arrest fallout
  2. Israel democracy fears
  3. US Greenland delegation
  4. Trump’s shipbuilding plans
  5. China’s chip efforts
  6. Tariff concerns eased
  7. US consumers tighten up
  8. Rice export curbs ended
  9. Deportation flights resume
  10. ‘Nazi’ German soccer row

The London Review of Substacks, and recommending an under-the-radar gem at Hong Kong Art Week.

1

Erdoğan looks to limit arrest fallout

A chart showing Turkey’s democracy index scores dropping since 2010.

Turkey banned short-selling and called for more than 700 X accounts to be blocked as it moved to limit the fallout from the arrest of a key opposition figure. Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s biggest rival, was jailed over the weekend on corruption charges before he could launch his presidential challenge, sparking huge protests. The news saw the country’s stock market fall 17%. Erdoğan is betting that he is too valuable to the West — for his role in defense against Russia, stabilizing Syria, and diplomatic efforts in Gaza — to face significant action against his move to erode democratic norms, Bloomberg reported: So far, “the international outcry [has been] conspicuous by its absence.”

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2

Israel AG set for removal

Protesters in Israel demonstrating against the no confidence vote
Ronen Zvulun/Reuters

The Israeli cabinet passed a vote of no confidence against the country’s attorney general, presaging the removal of another critic of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The move comes days after the government tried to remove the head of the domestic spy service, another vocal opponent of the Israeli leader’s agenda, although it was blocked from doing so by the Supreme Court. Netanyahu’s attempts to oust his critics have brought accusations that he is undermining democratic institutions as he expands Israel’s war in Gaza, Reuters reported: Thousands have taken to the streets in protest, with one saying they were demonstrating to show that Israel is “a democracy and will remain a democracy.”

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3

US delegation to visit Greenland

Demonstrators in Greenland holding a sign reading “We are not for sale.”
Christian Klindt Soelbeck/Ritzau Scanpix/via Reuters

High-profile US officials will visit Greenland this week, reviving concerns that Washington is looking to annex the strategic Arctic island. Greenland’s prime minister called the visit by a delegation including second lady Usha Vance and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz a “clear provocation,” in light of US President Donald Trump’s proposals to take control of the semi-autonomous Danish territory. The spat is a further sign that post-1945 proscriptions against seizing territory are crumbling, an expert argued in Foreign Affairs. Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea was met with a weak reaction from world powers, and suggestions that Ukrainian territory should be handed over to Russia “further normalize territorial conquest.” Similarly, Trump’s statements about Greenland, Canada, and Panama are “worrying steps in the wrong direction.”

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4

Trump’s MSGA plans

A chart showing the gross tonnage of merchant ships built per country

US President Donald Trump’s efforts to “make shipbuilding great again” are part of a revival of the 19th-century “Great Game” — this time in the Arctic, an analyst argued. Trump wants to revive US shipbuilding, moribund since World War II, and is planning an executive order which would charge Chinese vessels to use US ports, diverting the money to subsidize American industry. The plan is “unrealistic” and would snarl global supply chains, experts told The Washington Post. But it reveals US goals, a Financial Times columnist wrote: Icebreakers, which the US has not built for 25 years, are top of Trump’s wishlist, to compete with China and Russia for Arctic mineral wealth.

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5

Ant Group touts chip breakthrough

A photo of a semiconductor
Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo/Reuters

China’s Ant Group reportedly used Chinese-made chips to train artificial intelligence models, which would be a breakthrough for the country’s AI industry as it seeks to get around US semiconductor controls. The Jack Ma-backed company used domestic chips to achieve results similar to those from market-leading Nvidia semiconductors, which the US barred from export to China, Bloomberg said. Washington has ramped up its crackdown on the smuggling of US-manufactured chips — on which numerous Chinese AI firms rely — to China. Malaysia said it would tighten regulations on chip sales after coming under pressure from Washington. However progress may be hard to come by: “Enforcement might sound easy, but it’s not,” Trade Minister Zafrul Aziz told the Financial Times.

For more on the rapidly evolving world of AI, subscribe to Semafor’s Tech newsletter. →

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6

Markets hope for targeted tariffs

Donald Trump
Nathan Howard/Reuters

US President Donald Trump is reportedly readying more targeted levies on American trading partners than the mass duties originally threatened, helping to allay market concerns. Trump also this weekend pledged “flexibility” ahead of a planned Apr. 2 imposition of reciprocal tariffs. Still, traders remain worried: Flexibility “connotes openness to change,” CNBC noted, but “also signals uncertainty, something anathema to the market.” Already, stocks in Europe and China are outperforming the US, with investors worried by the trade war and wild swings in American foreign policy, and because of huge prior bets on US stocks from abroad, “the downside risks… of foreigners selling are significant,” one economist warned.

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7

US consumers signal weakness

Cans of Campbell soup.
Flickr Creative Commons Photo/Mike Mozart

US consumers, long an engine of global economic growth, may be losing their vitality. Sportswear giant Nike last week warned that cautious retail spending was a key factor hampering efforts to boost sales, while several snack sellers including General Mills, JM Smucker, and Campbell’s have reported consumer caution following years of inflation and economic uncertainty. The trend tallies with research from McKinsey which noted that after a buoyant start to the year, “consumers reported their plans to decrease spending across many discretionary categories.” In particular, the consulting firm noted, “trade-down behavior” — in which people buy lower-quality goods or in smaller quantities than usual — was “consistent and pervasive.”

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8

India eases rice export rules

A chart comparing share of expenditure on food vs total consumer expenditure for several nations.

India eased rules on the export of rice, potentially curbing food-price inflation that has hammered much of the developing world in recent years. The country, the world’s largest exporter of rice, imposed the restrictions following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine amid fears of shortfalls as importers the world over began panic buying, but today lifted the last of its curbs on the overseas sale of the grain. The move should help poorer nations grappling with fast-rising food prices, particularly in Africa: South Africa fears an acceleration in food price inflation in the coming months, while the issue has had violent implications in Nigeria, which last year experienced several deadly crushes at events offering free food.

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9

US-Venezuela deportations resume

Venezuelan migrants arrive back in their home country.
Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/Reuters

The US restarted deportation flights to Venezuela following a weekend agreement, with more than 200 people arriving in the South American country Monday. US President Donald Trump has vowed to deport hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans living in the US, many of whom fled their native country amid a violent crackdown on dissent. The deportations to Caracas took place hours after Trump rescinded the temporary legal status of more than half a million people from several Latin American nations. The rapid crackdown on migration has sparked fears of widespread human rights abuses: Almost 240 people have been deported to El Salvador’s infamous mega-prison for alleged — yet not proven — ties to a Venezuelan drug gang.

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10

AfD no longer out of bounds

The AfD co-leaders Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel.
The AfD co-leaders Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel. Annegret Hilse/Reuters

The German parliamentary soccer team is in crisis after a Berlin court said newly elected members of the hard-right Alternative for Germany could join the squad. Bundestag FC has played in an amateur league against other workplace teams since 1967, and sells itself as building cross-party cooperation. The club’s members “have drawn the line,” however, at the AfD which came second in last month’s federal elections but whose anti-immigration, anti-EU stance is beyond the pale for most mainstream German politicians. One Green parliamentarian told the Financial Times that “I just don’t want to have to shower with Nazis.”

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Flagging
  • Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva arrives in Tokyo for a four-day state visit.
  • The Asian Development Bank publishes its Asian Economic Integration report.
  • Bangkok opens its annual international auto show.
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LRS

Abundance of optimism

Every so often, the cultural zeitgeist changes within elite progressive circles: a “vibe shift.” In the 2000s, the “skeptic” movement was prominent, argues the tech journalist James O’Malley, centering humanist and rationalist ideas in contrast to fundamentalist Islam of al-Qaida and the conservative Christianity of the US presidency. Later, #metoo drove feminist ideas to the heart of political conversations, followed by “wokeness,” which emerged from US racial politics and the trans rights movement, which — O’Malley thinks — peaked around 2020. But “the vibes are once again shifting,” he says, with the election of Donald Trump demonstrating to left-wingers how unpopular some of the ideas they have espoused are.

Now, the center-left is in flux and a new vibe is yet to take hold. But O’Malley thinks he knows what the next one will be: The abundance agenda, the idea that we can tackle the world’s problems, such as climate change, while also making people’s lives better. As with earlier vibes, it existed before now — the YIMBY movement, writers like Noah Smith and Matthew Yglesias calling for economic growth, cheap clean energy, and infrastructure development. But Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson’s new book Abundance will, O’Malley argues, act as a “totemic moment,” as the publication of The God Delusion or White Fragility were for earlier vibes, in bringing those ideas into the mainstream.

The other long COVID

Five years ago, Britain had just begun its first COVID-19 lockdown, and the British writer Helen Lewis has “been thinking about the lingering after-effects” of the pandemic: Not the health impacts per se, terrible though some of them are, but the psychological ones, of the isolation that it caused. “Covid might have been a respiratory disease,” she says, “but the pandemic era profoundly affected our brains.” You can see this in some celebrities. She names several British stars, previously “intelligent, curious, funny, irreverent.” One now appears on niche TV stations ranting about vaccines and Jewish mobs. Elon Musk’s transformation is, she thinks, another example.

During COVID, people were forced to live much of their lives online, often hanging out with self-selected, like-minded groups, which “have a well-known tendency to drift towards the extremes.” Combine that with an attention economy that rewards provocative behavior but also puts vulnerable people in the way of angry backlashes, and allows troubled people to “shrug off any criticism as attacks on The Movement.” “My question is this,” she says: “how many people has this happened to?” It’s not just celebrities. Reflecting on it has made her more sympathetic to lockdown skeptics, because the downsides of lockdowns “were greater than I, or most liberals, acknowledged.”

Dates and time

“Three years ago, I was a 34-year-old who hadn’t had sex in fifteen years,” writes Alvaro de Menard. “Since then I’ve failed miserably at dating, then turned into a total manwhore, and eventually found someone really special to commit to.” He wishes that someone, years ago, had written a practical guide to dating: So now he has done it. “Why should you listen to me? Because… I’m just a weird nerd who (after fifteen years of celibacy) decided to make dating his autistic special interest and discovered that it’s actually not that difficult.”

First, dating apps “are a numbers game and must be treated as such.” Swipe lots. “You will be rejected again and again and again,” and you must grow desensitized to it. The time you spend on apps is “a tax you pay for the possibility of sex and/or love.” Crucially, whether looking for love or sex, “self-improvement [and] honesty” are key: Admit what you’re looking for, and make yourself the best version of yourself you can be. “Your body is you. Hit the gym.” And finally, even if you do want a long-term relationship, start with casual dating: Doing it the other way is “like trying to run a marathon without doing any training first.”

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Semafor Recommends

Three Stories: Monsters, Opium, Time, Kiang Malingue Gallery, Hong Kong. Hong Kong’s art scene has had a tough few years, given the disruptions of the pandemic and the imposition of Beijing’s national security law. Hong Kong Art Week, now on, features some of the greatest art in the world, but for those looking for exhibitions that show off distinctive Asian works, Artnews recommends eight “under-the-radar” shows, including this one examining “the complex interplay of history, myth, and perception,” with a focus on Japanese folklore. Visit the Kiang Malique website here.

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Semafor Spotlight
A great read from Semafor BusinessMax Levchin
Brendan McDermid/Reuters

Math runs through Max Levchin’s thinking about Affirm, his biggest venture since he built PayPal with Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Reid Hoffman, and the rest of what became known as the PayPal Mafia.

The buy-now-pay-later loan service is what Soviet-born Levchin calls a “moral capitalist enterprise,” and has pledged to never charge its customers late fees. But that means there’s little room for error: “From the very beginning, the underwriting discipline here was the only thing that stood between us and losing money,” he told Semafor’s Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson.

For more insights from the C-suite, subscribe to Semafor Business. →

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