Flagship

Russia, Ukraine agree Black Sea truce

Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea following talks with the US in Saudi Arabia. It’s unclear when the truce would take effect, as the Kremlin stressed on certain conditions to be met, including lifting sanctions on Russia’s agricultural bank and other institutions. Such an agreement would mark the first step toward unwinding sanctions on Russia since the Ukraine war began. The Black Sea is one theater in which Ukrainian forces have put Russia on the defensive, perhaps making Moscow keener to seek a truce there, the Guardian wrote. “The ‘Russian art of the deal’ is selling Russian demands as Russian concessions to the Americans, and then demand sanctions relief on top,” one expert said.

US consumer confidence falls

Americans’ confidence in the US economy fell to a four-year low, new data released Tuesday showed, as they fret about higher costs stemming from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The consumer confidence index decline shows how the escalating trade war and resulting market volatility have begun to weigh on households, as economists warn of rising odds of a recession. But while “soft data” surveys measuring confidence and optimism suggest malaise, “hard data” like government statistics present a different picture of low unemployment and rising business and manufacturing activity, Bloomberg wrote, prompting a debate over whether the economic pessimism will translate into a real slowdown.

Protectionism at historic levels

Nations are imposing trade barriers at the quickest rate since the 1930s, when a flood of US tariffs spurred a wave of global protectionism. Countries were already increasing trade barriers to stem Chinese oversupply before US President Donald Trump’s return, but his aggressive approach — including deploying a “new economic statecraft tactic” of “secondary tariffs” — has accelerated the trade war. Economists don’t forecast another Great Depression, with average tariffs well below their 20th-century highs, “but they do warn of lasting damage, both economically and diplomatically,” The Wall Street Journal reported. Countries are now bracing for Trump’s April 2 retaliatory tariffs: India is weighing cutting duties on more than half of US imports to fend those off.

Trump admin downplays chat breach

The Trump administration downplayed the leak of sensitive military plans to a journalist, and denied that classified information was shared in a group chat. President Donald Trump on Tuesday defended his national security adviser who accidentally added The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg to a Signal group where top White House officials discussed US strikes on Houthi targets. Democrats demanded investigations into the stunning breach, while Republicans were largely silent. More broadly, the leaked conversation offers lessons for US allies and adversaries, a Bloomberg columnist argued: US officials’ derision of European “free-loading” signals to Asia and the Middle East that “this might soon be them” if they don’t make trade concessions, while Russia and China will see “exploitable opportunities.”

Law firms fear Trump retribution

Elite US law firms are trying to stay out of President Donald Trump’s crosshairs. Trump has used executive orders to target lawyers who have challenged him or his causes; one of those firms, Paul Weiss, recently agreed to give the Trump administration $40 million in free legal work. Other legal boardrooms are fretting they may be next in line, the Financial Times reported. Some are trying to hire Trump-aligned staff, while others are declining to represent Trump opponents. Immigration attorneys are also fearing backlash after a White House memo warned against “frivolous” attempts to sue the government.

Travel fears over US crackdown

Canadians and Europeans are staying away from the US as relations sour under President Donald Trump. February saw 13% fewer Canadian air passengers to the US year-on-year, and many Europeans are likewise reconsidering US trips, Reuters reported. These decisions are partly in protest against Trump’s threats of annexation against Canada and his criticism of Europe. But several countries have also updated their US travel advisories over concerns of “aggressive questioning, detentions and denials of admission” at border control, The Washington Post reported. Similar concerns have prompted some immigration attorneys to warn visa and green card holders in the US to restrict international travel; CNN said one woman living in the Midwest decided against flying to Cameroon for her father’s funeral.

Alibaba to restart hiring

Alibaba said Tuesday it plans to resume hiring, emboldened by Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s recent overtures to business leaders. The Chinese tech giant’s headcount has declined for years due to layoffs amid the country’s broader private-sector malaise. But Xi’s February meeting with top executives, including Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma, was a “very, very clear signal to the business community [to] reinvest in your business,” the company’s Chairman Joe Tsai said. While experts say stronger stimulus measures are still needed to change Beijing’s economic narrative, other signs of corporate confidence are emerging: Chinese merger and acquisition activity is picking up, Asian Legal Business wrote.

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Indonesia economic concerns rise

Economic and political concerns in Indonesia pushed its currency to its weakest level since the Asian financial crisis of 1998, prompting officials to intervene and stabilize the rupiah. Indonesia’s appeal to global investors has dimmed in recent months over rising worries surrounding President Prabowo Subianto’s handling of the federal budget. Indonesian stocks have tumbled, and consumer confidence notched the largest one-month decline of any country in the world in March, according to a new Ipsos report. The response to a new sovereign wealth fund was also largely underwhelming, but Jakarta is hoping to juice interest by adding prominent figures to the fund’s board, including US billionaire Ray Dalio and economist Jeffrey Sachs.

Climate investors eye Trump’s agenda

Some climate investors are seeing opportunity in US President Donald Trump’s pro-fossil fuel policies. A combination of elevated interest rates hurting solar and wind projects, which are more dependent on debt than oil and gas, alongside Trump’s rhetoric chilling climate sentiment has driven prices on clean power projects down to the point that major investors including Brookfield and KKR have said they see bargains to be picked up in the US renewables sector. Madrid-based private equity firm Qualitas — which is focused on energy — in 2024 made its first acquisition in the US in 12 years, with its CEO telling Semafor the country will be a “very relevant, meaningful market” in the coming years. “Overall, there was a feeling of potential.”

Paralyzed man can stand again

A paralyzed man is able to stand after having his spine repaired using stem cell therapy. Induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells are made by forcing adult cells to revert to embryonic conditions, which then become other cell types. The trial in Tokyo involved injecting millions of iPS cells into the spinal injury site of four paralyzed men, in the hope they would form new nerve cells. Four years later, one is now relearning how to walk, and another gained movement in arms and legs but cannot stand, although the other two saw no improvement. It is the first use of iPS cells to treat paralysis: Other work using brain-computer interfaces has also seen promising results, raising hopes of progress in restoring function.

March 26:

• The UK, Japan, and Australia release inflation figures.
• A verdict is expected in the trial of opposition Korean lawmaker Lee Jae-myung, who is charged with violating election law.
• British actress Keira Knightley celebrates her 40th birthday.

A fragment of a 13th-century manuscript containing rare medieval stories of Merlin and King Arthur was found hiding in plain sight in a university library. For more than 400 years, the text was stitched inside an Elizabethan register of property deeds, and was discovered at Cambridge University, folded and fragile. Researchers used new technology to digitally capture parts of the parchment without unfolding or damaging it. The story revealed serves as an “intriguing sequel” to the tale of the shape-shifting magician, the BBC wrote: Merlin becomes a blind harpist who vanishes into thin air, but later reappears as a child who issues edicts to King Arthur.

President Donald Trump is cutting nearly $3 billion in spending, much of it reserved for foreign aid, by unwinding part of a 2023 fiscal deal loathed by conservatives, three senior White House officials told Semafor’s Burgess Everett.

One White House official said Trump was exercising his discretion over whether the spending does indeed constitute an emergency — “not only is it not an emergency,” said another official, “it’s probably some of the lowest-priority spending that you could identify.” Nevertheless, it sets up a court fight at the heart of broader legal battles over Trump’s unilateral funding decisions.