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US allies’ security concerns over the White House Signal leaks, Russia’s new ceasefire demands, and ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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March 26, 2025
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The World Today

  1. US allies’ security fears
  2. Russia ups truce demands
  3. Trump to expedite tariffs
  4. Venezuela blasts US duties
  5. UK’s downbeat economy
  6. Combating a housing crisis
  7. Palestinian director freed
  8. Nigeria oil blast fallout
  9. ‘Hints’ of life on Mars
  10. A star is born, on camera

One Good Text on how AI will change the courts system, and recommending a history of a Chinese tech giant.

1

Intel leak rattles US allies

US President Donald Trump with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the Oval Office
Carl Court/Pool via Reuters/File Photo

A stunning security breach that saw White House officials discuss military plans in a group chat with a journalist intensified fears among US allies over collaborating with Washington. NATO partners have for weeks raised doubts about broader defense cooperation with the US, extending to questions over continuing purchases of American defense equipment. The controversy over plans to bomb Yemen being discussed in a Signal group chat have amplified “deep-rooted fears” among British spies over Washington’s trustworthiness, potentially leading to restrictions on material shared with the US, the i newspaper reported. Japan, meanwhile, is fretting ahead of a visit by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. It is unclear “that you can definitely rely on the US now,” one official told the Financial Times.

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2

Russia rows back on truce

Cargo vessels in the Black Sea
Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters

Moscow set new conditions for a partial ceasefire with Ukraine, prompting even US President Donald Trump — who is pushing for a pause in the war — to suggest “they’re dragging their feet.” Moscow and Kyiv agreed Tuesday to halt fighting in the Black Sea and work to limit attacks on energy infrastructure. But after Ukraine confirmed the deal, the Kremlin announced far-reaching new terms, including lifting sanctions on some Russian banks and exports. Kyiv had already been pushed into the agreement: Russia’s latest demands would “drive a coach and horses” through the sanctions regime and represent a “betrayal” of Ukraine, one military analyst wrote.

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3

Trump to expedite copper tariffs

Donald Trump
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

US President Donald Trump will reportedly implement copper tariffs earlier than expected and limit exceptions to levies due next week. Markets are anxiously awaiting news on the reciprocal tariffs which Washington has said it will impose on Apr. 2, with the president telling Newsmax he did not want “too many exceptions” to the duties. The copper tariffs were not expected for months, but a required investigation into the new levies is now “looking like little more than a formality,” Bloomberg said. Trump’s trade war has fueled concerns for the US economy: A Deutsche Bank survey puts the likelihood of a recession this year at 43%, while 60% of CFOs surveyed by CNBC anticipate one in the second half.

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4

Caracas hits out at US tariffs

A chart depicting Venezuela’s decline in oil production

Venezuela dismissed Washington’s threat to impose tariffs on countries that buy its oil as “arbitrary, illegal, and desperate.” Analysts say the move to impose the so-called secondary tariffs on the Latin American nation — over its alleged support for gang activity in the US — is unprecedented, and could represent a potent new economic weapon: Tariffs are easier to enact than traditional sanctions and are harder to avoid. The threat of the tariffs has already driven up oil prices and drawn Beijing’s ire. But while the US and China are among the biggest buyers of Venezuelan crude, US purchases are likely to cease when a waiver on Chevron operating in the sanctions-hit country expires in May.

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5

UK’s downbeat outlook

A chart showing real GDP percentage change compared to pre-pandemic levels across G7 countries

The UK finance minister’s Spring Statement on the economy is likely to be a downbeat affair. Growth is expected to halve in the world’s sixth-largest economy in 2025, and Chancellor Rachel Reeves, a member of the center-left Labour Party, is set to announce cuts to welfare spending even as she moves more money into defense. Reeves is “walking a tightrope,” Politico reported: She is trying to remove zoning laws which the government believes strangle housebuilding and infrastructure, but Westminster’s parlous finances forced her into announcing large tax rises in October, which analysts say hurt the growth she is trying to promote.

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6

Lawmakers grapple with housing crisis

Apartment buildings in Florida
Pexels Creative Commons Photo/Larry Milligan

Lawmakers worldwide are scrambling to deal with the West’s housing crisis. Florida is considering ditching property taxes to combat rapid house-price inflation: Property values in the state went up 27%, inflation adjusted, between 2020 and 2024. Meanwhile, the UK finance minister this week announced a $2.6 billion plan to build thousands of low-cost homes as prices soar. The problem is not just one of money: One obstacle, in Britain and elsewhere, is zoning laws which make building anything — whether houses or infrastructure — prohibitively difficult. A major new tunnel under the Thames has only just been greenlit, after 16 years of legal dispute and $1.6 billion spent on permitting before construction could even begin.

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7

Palestinian director released

One of the directors of No Other Land checks a damaged car after an attack by Israeli settlers.
Massa Qawasma/Reuters

An Oscar-winning Palestinian filmmaker who was attacked by Israeli settlers before being detained by the Israeli army was released. Hamdan Ballal was among the directors of No Other Land, a self-distributed film about the forced displacement of Palestinians in the West Bank, which this month won the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature. He had been at his home when settlers assaulted him and others while they were breaking their Ramadan fast, according to The Associated Press. Israeli security forces detained Ballal and two others, as well as an Israeli, officials said, adding that they were being taken for medical treatment. Upon Ballal’s release, an AP reporter said he had bruises on his face and blood on his clothes.

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Live Journalism
A promotional image for The World Economy Summit

The World Economy Summit 2025 will bring together US Cabinet officials, global finance ministers, central bankers, and over 200 CEOs of the world’s largest companies. The three-day summit will take place Apr. 23–25, 2025, in Washington, DC, and will be the first of its kind since the new US administration took office.

Featuring on-the-record conversations with top executives such as Alex Chriss, President and CEO, Paypal; Adena Friedman, Chair and CEO, Nasdaq; Reid Hoffman, Co-Founder, Manas AI & Partner, Greylock; Ted Sarandos, Co-CEO, Netflix; and Evan Spiegel, CEO, Snap, the summit will advance dialogues that catalyze global growth and fortify resilience in an uncertain, shifting global economy.

Apr. 23-25 | Washington, DC | Learn More

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8

Nigeria pipeline blast crisis

A woman walks over pipelines in Rivers state, Nigeria
Afolabi Sotunde/Reuters

A Nigerian oil pipeline damaged by a blast last week has been restored, its owner said, though the political fallout from the explosion persists. Oil accounts for more than 90% of the country’s foreign exchange earnings, and the Trans-Niger Pipeline has a capacity of 450,000 barrels per day. A rupture at the pipeline in Rivers state triggered a domestic political crisis, with President Bola Tinubu declaring a state of emergency, and suspending both the governor and the legislature in Rivers. Tinubu’s move “looks like decisive action… but it isn’t,” a Bloomberg columnist warned. Nigeria’s leader “has chosen a quasi-military solution for a political problem.”

For more from the continent, subscribe to Semafor’s Africa newsletter. →

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9

Hints of life on Mars

NASA’s Curiosity rover on Mars.
Flickr Creative Commons Photo/NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS

NASA’s Curiosity rover detected long-chain carbon molecules on Mars, the latest suggestion that life once existed on the Red Planet. The SUV-sized vehicle has been on Mars since 2012, traveling around 13 miles in that time. As it drives, it drills samples from the surface and analyzes them for organic compounds. Curiosity has previously uncovered the bed of a vanished lake, and has found other molecules that on Earth are related to life. The latest find is of three varieties of carbon chains up to 12 atoms long, which researchers believe were originally fatty acids, and marks the latest “in a series of tantalizing hints,” Science reported. NASA hopes Curiosity’s successor Perseverance will confirm the finding.

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10

A star is born

The James Webb Space Telescope’s observation of Herbig-Haro 49/50.
NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI

The James Webb Space Telescope captured a stunning image of a star being born against the backdrop of a spiral galaxy. Webb, the most powerful space telescope in existence, has made many astonishing discoveries since it launched in 2021 as the aging Hubble’s successor. Notably, it spotted well-formed galaxies in the early universe, reshaping understanding of how galaxies form, and analyzed the atmosphere of planets around distant stars. But like Hubble it also can take heart-stopping images of space, including this one of a cloud of gas and dust 625 million light years away. New space telescopes are planned, but JWST, still near the start of its planned mission, is constantly breaking new ground.

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  • Bangladesh celebrates its independence day for the first time since Sheikh Hasina’s ousting last August.
  • Russia marks the 25th anniversary of Vladimir Putin being elected president.
  • The World Figure Skating Championships open in Boston.
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One Good Text

Sean West is the author of Unruly: Fighting Back when Politics, AI, and Law Upend the Rules of Business, which published on Tuesday. Buy Unruly from Amazon.

Prashant: Should governments expect a barrage of AI-fueled legal action in the coming months from people who didn’t previously have much access to high-powered lawyers? Sean: The entry price of legal service is falling dramatically with AI powered tools. I fight local governments using AI powered parking ticket responses. One of the main reasons normal people can’t fight back against overbearing governments is the cost of legal. As the cost goes to zero, people will use bots to defend themselves and also to pick fights where they might previously have folded. Prashant: Courts are already pretty backlogged: No end in sight for that, I guess? Sean: Well the answer to AI is always AI - the courts will get smarter at using tech to digest an increase in volume. But, yes, the immediate result is that clogged courts will become more clogged with increased legitimate access to justice and increased legal spam attacks.

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Semafor Recommends

House of Huawei: Inside the Secret World of China’s Most Powerful Company, by Eva Dou. This history of the Chinese tech giant since its founding, through success and controversy, is full of “ambiguity and complexity” and “sheds much light on the murky nature of modern geopolitics,” according to The Guardian. The political economist Jostein Hauge called it “the best book I’ve read in a long time.” Buy House of Huawei from your local bookstore.

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Semafor Spotlight
US President Donald Trump signs an executive order at his desk in the Oval Office.
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

President Donald Trump is cutting nearly $3 billion in spending, much of it reserved for foreign aid, by unwinding part of a 2023 fiscal deal loathed by conservatives, three senior White House officials told Semafor’s Burgess Everett.

One White House official said Trump was exercising his discretion over whether the spending does indeed constitute an emergency — “not only is it not an emergency,” said another official, “it’s probably some of the lowest-priority spending that you could identify.” Nevertheless, it sets up a court fight at the heart of broader legal battles over Trump’s unilateral funding decisions.

To read what the White House is reading, subscribe to Semafor Principals. →

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