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Le Pen is found guilty of embezzlement, Trump ‘not joking’ about a third term, and scientists call f͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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March 31, 2025
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The World Today

  1. Le Pen found guilty
  2. Trump angry with Putin
  3. Third term for Trump?
  4. Markets down on tariff fear
  5. Dollar’s dominance at risk
  6. US steps up Japan presence
  7. Somaliland rejects offer
  8. Panama port sale delay
  9. New heart drug hopes
  10. Calls for ‘slow science’

The London Review of Substacks, and recommending some sacred Renaissance choral music.

1

Le Pen convicted of embezzlement

Marine Le Pen.
Abdul Saboor/Reuters

A French court barred Marine Le Pen from running in the country’s 2027 presidential election after finding her guilty of embezzlement, AFP reported. The anti-immigration, nationalist leader — the frontrunner for the next election, and a leading far-right voice on the continent — was accused of improperly hiring assistants when she was a European Parliament member. Le Pen has said the case is motivated by “vengeance.” Her conviction and sentencing will reshape French politics: She has increased her vote share in three successive presidential elections and holds a vise-like grip over her party despite no longer being its official leader, with her nominal successor being seen as too green for the top job.

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2

Trump lashes out at Putin

A chart showing Russian oil exports by destination country/region.

US President Donald Trump said he was “pissed off” with Vladimir Putin for stalling on a Ukraine peace deal, and threatened new tariffs on Russia. His comments marked a notable change in tone: Trump has until now been conciliatory towards Moscow, and the latest remarks suggest he may be losing patience with the Russian leader. Putin has imposed a series of conditions on potential peace deals which go far beyond existing US-led proposals, some of which effectively push out Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump said that if Russia were to block a peace deal, he would impose “secondary” tariffs of 25% on any country buying Russian oil, which would include China and India.

For more from Trump’s Washington, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. →

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3

Trump ‘not joking’ on third term

A chart showing the democracy index scores for G7 nations.

US President Donald Trump said he was “not joking” about seeking a third term, despite it being barred by the Constitution. In an interview with NBC Sunday, the US leader said “a lot of people” wanted him to run again in 2028, and that there were “methods” to sidestep the two-term limit. Trump has previously joked about running a third time, but the latest remarks — which follow comments likening himself to a king — are the most serious. To change the term limits, Trump would need an implausible two-thirds majority in Congress and the backing of 38 states, although he discussed a dubiously constitutional option of running for vice president with a running mate who would step aside upon winning.

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4

Trade war sparks selloff

A man standing next to a sign showing a drop in stock prices.
Francis Mascarenhas/File Photo/Reuters

Stock markets fell and fears of a US recession intensified ahead of the expansion of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs this week. Investors raced to buy haven assets ahead of the sweeping levies — reciprocal tariffs as well as duties on steel, aluminum, and cars — coming into force. Goldman Sachs slashed its projection for US growth this year, and raised its inflation forecast, estimating the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months at 35%, while Axios said analysts are now beginning to worry about “Wall Street’s least-favorite ‘s-word,’ stagflation.” The planned levies are already reshaping global trade ties: Beijing, Seoul, and Tokyo this week held their first economic talks in five years, agreeing to strengthen regional links.

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5

Dollar’s role at risk: Fink

A chart showing US spending on national debt and defense.

Ballooning US debt could put the dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency at risk, BlackRock’s CEO warned. In his annual letter, Larry Fink warned that the greenback’s central role in global finance — which allows Washington to borrow freely — is “not guaranteed.” Debt-interest payments will soon exceed defense spending, and concerns are spreading beyond traditional deficit hawks: US borrowing as a ratio of GDP is outpacing the most worrying forecasts from when the country’s debt rating was cut in 2011. “America’s top ratings really rest on effective policymaking, maintaining the strength of its institutions, and the continuing central role of the US dollar,” the Financial Times said. “Gulp.”

For more from Wall Street and the world of finance, subscribe to Semafor’s Business newsletter. →

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6

US to upgrade Japan base

Pete Hegseth and the prime minister of Japan.
Stanislav Kogiku/Pool/Reuters

The US will build a new “war-fighting headquarters” in Japan, the American defense secretary said, in an effort to deter what he described as Chinese “aggression.” Pete Hegseth, on his first Asian tour, called Tokyo an “indispensable partner,” reassuring words for a Japanese government concerned that the US will disengage under President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda. Washington’s more assertive posture toward Beijing — it recently moved to cut off Chinese access to US technology and hardened its stance on Taiwan — is also creating cautious optimism in Taipei, The Wall Street Journal reported: China is stepping up threats to the island, but officials are “increasingly confident that they have Trump’s backing.”

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7

Somaliland rejects US ports plan

A map showing the location of the two maps Somalia offered to the US.

Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland rejected a plan by Mogadishu to hand the US control of two ports on the Gulf of Aden, one of the world’s most valuable trade routes. Somalia’s offer comes as it attempts to prevent Washington from recognizing Somaliland as an independent nation, which the White House is considering in order to counter Chinese presence in the region, as Semafor first reported. Somaliland’s foreign minister said the offer was “desperate” given that Somalia does not control the sites, adding that he expected US recognition imminently. Trade through the sea route, which leads to the Suez Canal, has plummeted as Yemen’s Houthis have targeted cargo ships in response to Israel’s war in Gaza.

For more from the continent, subscribe to Semafor’s Africa newsletter. →

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8

China to probe Panama port sale

A photo of one of CK Hutchison’s ports.
Enea Lebrun/File Photo/Reuters

Beijing said it will investigate the sale of two ports in the Panama Canal, potentially derailing a deal that would give the US greater control over the key shipping lane. The announcement by Chinese antitrust regulators followed growing anger from Beijing over the sale of the ports by a Hong Kong firm to a consortium led by BlackRock. The leaders of China and the US have both said control of the ports by a foreign firm threatens each country’s strategic interests: A Chinese Communist Party official said the sale would be a “historic mistake” in return for “a small gain,” the South China Morning Post reported.

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9

New drug to treat heart disease

A photo of an Eli Lilly manufacturing plant.
Mike Segar/File Photo/Reuters

A new drug showed promise for treating heart disease. People with high levels of lipoprotein(a) in their blood are at higher risk of cardiovascular disease, but unlike other risk factors such as cholesterol there is no existing treatment to lower it. An early-stage trial found that two tablets taken six months apart reduced blood levels 95%: Eli Lilly will now begin bigger trials to see if the treatment actually reduces cardiovascular events. Progress in combating infectious diseases has left heart disease as the leading cause of death globally: Even in the poorest nations, only respiratory tract infections kill more people.

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10

Scientists should do less but better

Two scientists in a lab.
Creative Commons Photo/Rawpixel

Scientists should do less research but do it better, an academic argued. The scientific system incentivizes researchers to publish as many papers as possible: The so-called “publish or perish” model. At annual reviews, “I am asked how many articles I’ve published,” Jason Chin wrote in The Conversation. “I am not asked how robust my methods are.” The pressure to produce “has never been higher,” leading to corners being cut, unethical practices, and even outright fraud. The growing “slow science” movement calls for researchers to slow the process down, with larger sample sizes, hypotheses and methods decided in advance, and open data.

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Flagging
  • Israel’s prime minister testifies in his corruption trial.
  • Denmark’s king and queen begin a state visit to France.
  • Gone Girls, a documentary about a Long Island serial killer, debuts on Netflix.
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LRS

Master and commander

Britain’s Royal Navy in the 18th and 19th centuries has a reasonable claim to be the most dominant fighting force in history. During the Napoleonic Wars it destroyed 30 French ships of the line — the largest and most powerful ships — for each one lost; British vessels were expected to be able to engage and defeat opponents with up to 50% more guns and crew in combat. But, the technologist Arjun Panickssery notes, Britain’s navy was not ahead of its rivals technologically: “French ships were even marginally superior” at times. Nor were they better at gunnery or other specific skills.

The key difference with other navies was one of incentives and organization, Panickssery argues. The navy was unusually meritocratic, with no way of buying promotion. Captains also could not remove their own senior officers, meaning headquarters had “watchdogs” on board distant ships. And captains were not only encouraged but actually ordered — on pain of court-martial and death — to engage any ship of their own or smaller size, and to attack from upwind from where it was harder to run away. It meant the Royal Navy suffered less from the widespread problem of commanders shirking combat: At Trafalgar, over a third of the French fleet did not join the battle at all.

Euro trip

None of the world’s 20 biggest tech companies are European, and the continent is falling further behind all the time. European tech users use non-European platforms: Google, Instagram, YouTube, Amazon. US tech firms invest vastly more in R&D, and European startups are less likely to scale up than their US equivalents. Spotify and Revolut are “rare, anecdotal exceptions” which do not negate the “clear picture of systemic failure” painted by the numbers, the French entrepreneur Nicolas Colin argued.

But, he says, there is reason for optimism. European tech has tried to follow Silicon Valley’s “disruptive” model with limited success, but China’s rapid rise has shown there are other ways. “A new generation of players is emerging who understand that Europe must develop its own distinctive approach,” says Colin, “one that transforms our supposed weaknesses into strategic advantages.” Among them is Europe’s fragmented geography: “Europe’s tech renaissance must be decentralised.”

Fresh ideas

How did medieval Venice get its fresh water? Unlike other cities of the time, it couldn’t dig wells to groundwater: It sat (and sits) on mudflats in a saltwater lagoon. Even if you did excavate, the mud was unstable and tended to collapse. Importing water from the mainland by aqueduct or boat left it vulnerable to siege. But a city must have water. Venice solved the problem in an ingenious way, the civil engineer Connor Tabarrok notes in Of All Trades.

Courtyards in the city are subtly sloped from a central peak, directing rainwater into inlets. Below the ground is a huge, inverted, bell-shaped chamber of waterproof clay, filled with layers of sand as natural filtration. The water that gathers in the bell is accessible through a central well: There were 6,000 in Venice by the 16th century, and the result was “surprisingly clean drinking water in a city where such a resource should have been scarce.” The city switched to modern water infrastructure in the 1800s, but “as water scarcity becomes a growing global concern, [Venice’s system] reminds us that innovative solutions often lie in understanding and working with local environmental conditions rather than fighting against them.”

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Semafor Recommends
Hereward L/Wikimedia Commons

The Tallis Scholars, on tour. This British group has sung sacred Renaissance choral music since the 1970s: They are named for Thomas Tallis, the great English composer of the 16th century. This set of concerts, featuring the work of Tallis’ Italian contemporary Giovanni Pierluigi da Palestrina, is “gloriously rich,” according to The Guardian: The Tallis Scholars are “the consummate vocal ensemble.” The Tallis Scholars will visit the UK, Poland, Belgium, and the US: Find details here.

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Semafor Spotlight
A great readGlenn Fogel
Brendan McDermid/Reuters

Glenn Fogel joined the online travel startup Priceline.com 25 years ago this month, just days before the dot-com crash. That has given him some perspective, he told Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson, as travel firms’ stocks fall amid concerns over weakening US consumer confidence and foreign tourists being deterred by an America First administration.

Asked whether he thinks this is the toughest time to run a company, the CEO of Booking Holdings shoots back: “Which decade would you prefer to have lived in that was so much better?”

For more insights from the C-suite, sign up for Semafor Business. →

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