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Charting the impact of ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs in the US and abroad, the shingles vaccine may reduc͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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April 3, 2025
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The World Today

  1. Impact of ‘Liberation Day’
  2. China glut concerns
  3. Brazil rare trade winner?
  4. GOP tariff divisions
  5. Hungary to quit ICC
  6. SAfrica budget passed
  7. Renewables stretch grids
  8. Lowering dementia risk
  9. Switch 2 unveiled
  10. Arthur myth sequel found

California’s many EV chargers, and an opera based on a Breton myth of a sinking island.

1

Trump reshapes global trade

A chart comparing global manufacturing capacity by select countries

US President Donald Trump’s long-awaited tariffs marked the most drastic reimagining of global trade in generations, sparking fury abroad and sending stock markets plummeting. Trump’s “Liberation Day” levies, combined with auto tariffs taking effect today and the closing of other trade loopholes, ended a chapter of relentless globalization underway since the Cold War. Trump imposed duties on virtually all the main US trading partners from purported allies in Europe to arch-rival China, with impacts likely to be felt unequally: Britain appears better off than the EU, while within Asia, exemptions will spare India and Japan the worst while Vietnam was hammered. Huge tech companies with China-centric supply chains are also at risk, Apple chief among them.

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2

China tariffs’ global impact

A port in Bangkok
Athit Perawongmetha/Reuters

Huge new tariffs against Chinese goods won’t only hammer China’s economy and reshape its trade with the US, but will have knock-on effects for countries worldwide. Beijing slammed the duties and vowed retaliation Thursday, but regardless, “the impact of these new tariffs will be quite damaging to the [Chinese] economy,” Bill Bishop wrote in his Sinocism newsletter. The rerouting of Chinese goods that would have otherwise been sold in the US could have a huge impact on economies elsewhere, with ING’s head of Asia-Pacific research warning that Southeast Asian exporters could be hurt and inflation across the continent — already quite low — may fall further. European officials, meanwhile, said they were watching for signs of China dumping exports on the continent.

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3

Brazil commodities in demand

A chart comparing Brazil’s exports to the US and China

Brazil may be one of the few countries to profit from the global trade war as its commodities become increasingly sought after. Latin America’s biggest economy has already benefited from Chinese buyers stockpiling soybeans to shift away from American alternatives. The commodities-heavy Brazilian stock market is up more than 9% this year, in sharp contrast to US stock indexes. The surge reflects how Brazil has positioned its economy to meet China’s soaring demand, in turn receiving foreign capital essential to improving its aging infrastructure, The Wall Street Journal reported. The boost could provide a reprieve to the country’s president, whose approval ratings have plummeted, largely over the state of the economy.

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4

Tariffs reveal GOP split

Senate Majority Leader John Thune
Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Nathan Howard/Reuters.

US President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs revealed splits and fears within the Republican Party. Four GOP senators backed a Democrat-led resolution aiming to undo Trump’s 25% levies on Canada, a rare if largely symbolic rebellion since the bill is unlikely to pass the House of Representatives or Trump’s desk. The party is concerned that the policy could cause economic pain which will hurt it politically: Trump campaigned on tackling inflation, and one senator told Politico he feared “overreach.” The party is hurting after underperforming in two special elections in solidly Republican districts this week and seeing their preferred candidate lose in a Wisconsin supreme court race, with some concerned about a midterms “wipeout” next year.

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5

Hungary to withdraw from ICC

Benjamin Netanyahu and Viktor Orbán.
Benjamin Netanyahu and Viktor Orbán. Bernadett Szabo/Reuters

Hungary said it would withdraw from the International Criminal Court as it welcomed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is wanted by the ICC for alleged war crimes. Budapest’s announcement on Thursday represents a blow to the court, which had appeared to be “growing in confidence,” as one foreign policy scholar put it, with attempted prosecutions in recent years of Netanyahu over his country’s actions in Gaza, as well as Russian President Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine war. Because the ICC lacks enforcement powers, it relies on member states to act on its behalf. Yet, as The New York Times noted, “instead of arresting Mr. Netanyahu upon his arrival in Budapest… Hungary rolled out the red carpet.”

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6

South Africa coalition in doubt

South Africa’s Sports Minister Gayton McKenzie speaks ahead of South African lawmakers’ decision on the budget
South Africa’s Sports Minister Gayton McKenzie speaks ahead of South African lawmakers’ decision on the budget. Esa Alexander/Reuters

South Africa passed its long-awaited budget without the support of the government’s second-biggest party, leaving the coalition’s survival in doubt. The pro-business Democratic Alliance voted against the spending plan over a proposed hike to the VAT and the handling of vital infrastructure, which it wants to put on a path to privatization, Semafor reported. President Cyril Ramaphosa had warned that voting against the budget would be a betrayal of the government. While the budget’s passing ended a weeks-long impasse that had roiled South African markets, it also left the legislature “in uncharted waters,” the Mail and Guardian wrote, with one DA leader saying the coalition was “done and dusted.”

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7

Renewables overwhelm grids

A chart showing global electricity generation by source

Global grids are struggling to handle a huge expansion of renewable power. Construction of solar and wind farms has outpaced that of the infrastructure required to transport the electricity generated to homes and businesses, forcing grids in Britain, China, and the European Union to curtail the production of green power, often by paying producers to stay idle. China — which is adding renewables capacity at a breakneck pace — curtailed about 6% of its wind and solar power in January and February, up from 4% last year. In Europe, prices are increasingly turning negative and last year, nearly a tenth of Britain’s wind power, 5% of Germany’s renewables output, and 2.5% of France’s solar generation was curtailed.

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8

Medicines may reduce dementia risk

A chart showing the death rate per 100,000 from dementia for countries by income groups.

Two commonplace preventative medicines could reduce dementia risk, research suggested. One study, designed to detect causal links, found that the shingles vaccine is associated with a 3.5 percentage-point reduction in the chance of developing dementia. And research this week found that taking statins, even for people with low cholesterol, was also associated with a lower risk, although the study could not rule out the possibility that people taking statins are healthier in other ways. As the world’s population ages, dementia is a growing problem: Deaths are up threefold since 1990 and the condition costs the world economy around $2.8 trillion annually, meaning even small gains in preventing it could be huge for health care systems.

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9

Nintendo unveils Switch 2

Nintendo’s logo
Sarah Meyssonnier/File Photo/Reuters

Nintendo unveiled the successor to the hugely lucrative Switch console. The Switch 2 is in essence a reboot, but nevertheless represents a gamble: While the Switch revived Nintendo’s fortunes, much gaming has moved to mobile devices, and the Japanese company’s profits are down. The console will cost $449.99, towards the higher end of expectations, representing a possible buffer amid fears that US tariffs will hit supply chains. Nintendo has already shipped huge numbers to the US to avoid duties ahead of the device’s release on June 5. The Switch merged Nintendo’s two main lines, home and handheld consoles: Bloomberg noted that this created a “concentration risk,” putting all eggs in one basket. If the Switch 2 doesn’t take off, Nintendo “has no plan B.”

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10

Arthurian sequel discovered

A screengrab from the Cambridge University Library.
Cambridge University Library/Instagram

A 13th-century sequel to the Arthurian legends was found in the bindings of a much later book. The myths about a medieval British king and his knights developed over centuries: The newly discovered segment, written in Old French — the aristocratic language in post-Norman Conquest England — was part of a longer tale called the Suite Vulgate du Merlin. It tells of, among other things, the titular wizard disguising himself as a harpist at Arthur’s court, and a battle between Christians and Saxons involving the sword Excalibur. The fragment was found acting as a cover for a 15th-century property deed, and was so fragile it could not be removed, so researchers deciphered and digitized it in situ with groundbreaking digital techniques.

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Flagging
  • NATO foreign ministers gather for a two-day meeting in Brussels.
  • The first summit of EU and Central Asian leaders takes place in Uzbekistan.
  • Rwanda hosts the Global AI Summit, the first such conference to be held in Africa.
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Plug

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Semafor Stat
178,549

The number of public electric vehicle charging points in California. That is approximately 58,000 more than the number of gasoline pumps in the state. An estimated 700,000 chargers are also installed in homes. California is home to 11% of the US population, but accounts for 30% of zero-emission vehicle sales, and for the last two years more than 25% of car sales have been ZEVs, Techspot reported.

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Semafor Recommends

Le Roi d’Ys by the Chelsea Opera Group, London. Édouard Lalo’s opera was a work of “often startling originality” when it was released in 1888, The Guardian noted, but is largely neglected these days. It derives from a Breton legend about Ys, an Atlantis-like island that sinks beneath the sea, and focuses on a love triangle involving the two daughters of the island’s king: The review called Chelsea Opera Group’s performance “thrilling,” and said it should be commended for reviving this somewhat forgotten work. See more Chelsea Opera Group performances here.

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Semafor Spotlight
In a video still provided by US Central Command, a US ship fires missiles at an undisclosed location, after President Donald Trump launched military strikes against Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis.
US Central Command via Reuters

A bipartisan pair of US senators is warning the White House that recent US strikes on the Houthis in Yemen risk “emboldening” the Iranian-backed group.

The letter from Sens. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., and Rand Paul, R-Ky., shared first with Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant, did not mention the recent headline-grabbing Signal debacle around the strikes. Instead, the lawmakers raised concerns that the strikes flouted the law regarding congressional oversight of military operations.

Sign up for Semafor Principals, what the White House is reading. →

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