• D.C.
  • BXL
  • Lagos
  • Riyadh
  • Beijing
  • SG
  • D.C.
  • BXL
  • Lagos
Semafor Logo
  • Riyadh
  • Beijing
  • SG


A hastily declared Easter ceasefire in Ukraine doesn’t hold, JD Vance travels to India, and 21 robot͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
cloudy Beijing
sunny Moscow
sunny Tokyo
rotating globe
April 21, 2025
semafor

Flagship

newsletter audience icon
Sign up for our free newsletters
 

The World Today

  1. Beijing’s trade war playbook
  2. Chinese exporters pivot
  3. Vance to meet Modi
  4. More Iran-US nuclear talks
  5. Failed Easter truce in Ukraine
  6. US State Department cuts
  7. Silicon Valley’s patriotism
  8. Japan automakers unite
  9. Setting limits on neutrinos
  10. Robots race in China

A Caravaggio painting goes on display in India for the first time.

1

China’s evolving trade war playbook

Shipping containers in China
Tingshu Wang/Reuters

China is increasingly wielding non-tariff weapons against the US, and American companies specifically, marking an evolution in Beijing’s trade war strategy. The recent halting of Boeing jet deliveries and export controls on critical minerals used in manufacturing signal Beijing’s high level of preparedness for the conflict, its ability to hit Washington where it hurts, and a greater tolerance for pain, analysts said. US President Donald Trump is effectively “taking a tariff to a gunfight,” The New York Times’ Nicholas Kristof argued. China can inflict still more damage on US firms, including restricting companies like Tesla from doing business, The Atlantic wrote: Given Beijing’s capacity for escalation, it seems increasingly likely that “Trump will eventually be forced to back down.”

PostEmail
2

China exporters make domestic pivot

SHEIN packages
Casey Hall/Reuters

Beijing is moving to cushion its beleaguered domestic economy in the face of an escalating trade war with the US. Several Chinese e-commerce giants including Alibaba and JD.com launched a national campaign — with Beijing’s blessing — to help the country’s exporters shift to domestic sales. “A sense of anti-US unity has prompted each Chinese company to do whatever it is capable of,” one Beijing-based e-commerce consultant told the Financial Times. Chinese officials are engaging in a broader effort to boost demand after years of sluggish growth, and the firms’ pivot “aligns with this ambition,” a China economy newsletter noted. Still, companies that catered to foreign customers could struggle to market to a more thrifty domestic consumer base.

PostEmail
3

Vance meeting with Modi in India

A chart showing the US trade deficit with India

US Vice President JD Vance is set to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Monday, with trade on the agenda. Vance’s visit alongside his wife, Usha, the daughter of Indian immigrants, reflects warming ties under US President Donald Trump: The issues that had strained Washington’s relationship with New Delhi during the Biden administration — including India’s approach to Russia, as well as US criminal charges against an Indian government official and a business tycoon — “have little relevance in Washington today,” The Washington Post wrote. New Delhi is hoping to strike a trade deal to avoid Trump’s tariffs, and capitalize on the US-China trade war: “There is a fair amount of confidence,” a former Indian foreign secretary said.

PostEmail
4

Second round of US-Iran nuclear talks

Iranian and US officials are set to meet for technical nuclear talks this week after what both sides described as a successful round of negotiations in Rome on Saturday. The countries agreed to start composing a framework for a potential deal, but Tehran’s obfuscation over its nuclear capabilities dents hopes for a quick agreement. Iran hasn’t provided an inventory of its nuclear material and infrastructure, and striking a deal without those details would “be extremely risky,” The Wall Street Journal wrote. Tehran’s motivation for entering talks is not US President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign, but a desire to “preserve the essential features of its expanding nuclear infrastructure” — especially its new generation of uranium-enriching centrifuges — two security analysts argued in Politico.

PostEmail
5

Putin’s Easter truce fails to hold

Military chaplain Oleksandr Karapetian conducts the Easter service for service members of the 93rd Kholodnyi Yar Separate Mechanized Brigade near a front line
Anatolii Stepanov/Reuters

Ukrainian and Russian officials accused each other of breaking a hastily declared one-day Easter ceasefire. Kyiv said it was hit by dozens of Russian assaults Sunday despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s order to “stop all military activity,” while the Kremlin accused Ukraine of attacks, too. Putin’s truce announcement was likely aimed at appealing to US President Donald Trump and putting Ukraine in a bind, analysts said: It seemed “designed entirely to placate White House demands for some sign that Russia is willing to stop fighting,” CNN’s international security correspondent wrote. The timing, brevity, and one-sided nature of the declaration offer further “proof of Moscow’s wild cynicism when it comes to peace.”

PostEmail
6

Concerns over US State cuts

The US State Department seal
Joshua Roberts/Reuters

Reports that the Trump administration may be planning a sweeping overhaul of the US State Department have sparked confusion in Washington and concerns over the implications for America’s presence abroad. A purported draft executive order proposes various cuts, including eliminating a bureau devoted to sub-Saharan Africa and closing “nonessential” embassies and consulates across the region. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the report was “fake news,” but the jitters in Washington “underscored how alarmed many are about the lengths the Trump administration will go to to reshape the State Department,” Politico wrote. The administration is planning to slash the department’s budget, a move that would equate to the “demolishing of our international influence instruments,” one former official said.

PostEmail
7

Silicon Valley VCs embrace patriotism

Peter Thiel
Gage Skidmore/Flickr/CC BY-SA 2.0

Silicon Valley venture capitalists are embracing patriotism. A recent funding round by a startup that hopes to enrich uranium attracted major investment from PayPal cofounder Peter Thiel’s venture capital firm: The Republican megadonor has a history of interest in US national security, most notably though Palantir. The nuclear venture “is part of a group of unabashedly patriotic startups,” The Economist wrote, reflecting “a new mindset in Silicon Valley” as MAGA-friendly investors capitalize on US President Donald Trump’s push for self-sufficiency. While it is perhaps ironic that self-described conservative libertarians like Thiel are “harking back to a golden era of government intervention in the economy” last seen in the Cold War, one historian noted, that was also when Silicon Valley got its start.

PostEmail
The World Economy Summit
World Economy Summit

Glenn D. Fogel, CEO and President, Booking Holdings Inc.; Adena Friedman, Chair and CEO, Nasdaq; Michael Intrator, CEO, CoreWeave; Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO, Uber; Kumar Krishnamurthy, Technology Strategy Leader, PwC US; Salil Parekh, CEO and Managing Director, Infosys, and more will join the AI and the Next Tech Revolution session at the 2025 World Economy Summit. This session explores how AI is reshaping business and society, and how leaders are addressing its complex challenges in governance, access, and policy.

April 25, 2025 | Washington, DC | Learn More

PostEmail
8

Japan automakers push for smarter cars

A Toyota sedan at an auto trade show
Jeenah Moon/Reuters

Japan’s automaking giants are uniting in an effort to design smarter vehicles in order to better compete with their Chinese rivals. ASRA, an industry group that includes Toyota, Nissan, and Honda, wants to standardize the computer chips used in cars, with the aim of reducing costs and facilitating innovation. Japanese manufacturers typically design a car’s hardware first, while Chinese companies build cars around their software, with an emphasis on technologies like full self-driving and other autonomous capabilities. “Japan is lagging” on cutting-edge car tech, one ASRA executive told Nikkei. The country’s flagship automakers ranked near the bottom on metrics for how digitized their vehicles and businesses are.

PostEmail
9

Putting limits on ghost particles

Researchers came closer to establishing the mass of a neutrino, one of the most elusive particles in the universe. Neutrinos have no electric charge and are infinitesimally tiny. That makes them near-impossible to spot: Trillions pass through your body unimpeded every second. Now, a detector in Germany has been able to at least put an upper limit on the mass of one neutrino at one three-millionth that of an electron. Neutrinos are weird — they fluctuate between different varieties — and scientists hope that explaining that weirdness could open up new physics and perhaps even help reconcile the two great, but so far incompatible, theories of relativity and quantum mechanics.

PostEmail
10

Robots compete in Beijing half marathon

Robots running a marathon in Beijing
Tingshu Wang/Reuters

Beijing hosted a half marathon Saturday that included 21 humanoid robot runners — but only six managed to finish the race. The fastest android completed the 13.1 mile track in two hours and 40 minutes, but it had to get its batteries changed three times and fell over once. Others overheated and stumbled; one literally lost its head. The bots’ poor performance reflects a “hardware robustness problem,” a robotics professor told Wired. Most humanoid robots are designed to complete specific tasks, not to run fast. Still, the display shows how China views robots as practical, he added: “I would expect to see China shifting this year to [making robots] focusing more on doing useful things.”

PostEmail
Flagging

April 21:

  • The International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings begin in Washington, DC.
  • Financial markets in the UK, Canada, Hong Kong, and elsewhere are closed for Easter Monday.
  • The 129th Boston Marathon takes place.
PostEmail
Curio
Magdalene in Ecstasy
Kiran Nadar Museum of Art

A painting by the mercurial Italian Renaissance artist Caravaggio is on display in Delhi, marking the first time one of his works has been shown in India. Believed to have been painted in 1606 while Caravaggio was on the run after being charged with murder, Mary Magdalene in Ecstasy is at once “wicked and sublime,” Artnet wrote, showing the saint with “a breathless expression… caught between death and dreaming.” The depiction is fitting: Magdalene is among the most contested figures in Christianity, The New Yorker noted, often depicted, including by Caravaggio, as an object of desire as much as devotion: The “patron saint of outcasts, she embodies uncertainty.

PostEmail
Semafor Spotlight
A great read from Semafor BusinessJudy Marks
Zhang Xiangyi/China News Service/VCG

“I don’t remember a time that we didn’t have uncertainty,” Judy Marks said, reflecting on the five years since Otis, the $40 billion elevator and escalator company she leads, became independent.

Since 2020, Otis’ share price has roughly doubled, thanks to the company’s “flywheel” business model, Marks told Semafor’s Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson: Most of its profits come from maintaining, rather than installing, its elevators. “We’ve fine-tuned the strategy to make sure everyone understands that new equipment is wonderful,” Marks said, “but we are a long-cycle business.”

For more insights from the C-suite, subscribe to Semafor Business. →

PostEmail