Gulf

1. Modi to meet MBS
2. Saudi property lift
3. Dubai real estate surges
4. Kuwait power cuts
5. Startup funding slump
6. A crypto rug pull?

Pepsi is working on Najdi flavors.

Welcome back to Semafor Gulf, where we are following the money to Washington, DC.

The world’s finance and business leaders — including prominent delegations from the Gulf — are converging on the American capital this week for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings. While the usual topics are on the agenda, the backdrop is tense as the Trump administration targets these and other multilateral institutions focused on global cooperation in trade, aid, and development.

The stock market rout and trade tensions have dampened the mood. The IMF downgraded its global growth forecast for the year and may raise inflation projections for several countries. The World Trade Organization now expects goods trade to grow just 0.2% this year, down from its previous estimate of 2.7%. The good news: the global economy is likely to avoid a recession in 2025.

Trade is a top priority for Gulf countries, especially as the region positions itself as a critical transshipment hub. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, combined, ranked among the top five biggest exporters and importers of goods last year, according to the WTO. Another initiative on the agenda is to boost global cooperation to rebuild Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. The IMF, World Bank, and several Arab states are expected to hold meetings to build on discussions that began in Saudi Arabia in February.

And this week, Semafor is hosting the World Economy Summit, featuring finance ministers, Trump administration officials, and global business leaders — including the CEOs of General Motors, Netflix, Snap, and Uber. Gulf officials will also speak about the transformation of the region’s economies and growing investments in artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies.

I’ll be there, and hope to see you this week, in person or remotely: Let me know if you’ll be attending by replying to this email. And get more details about WES here.

Modi to visit Saudi this week

As the Gulf deepens ties with the West, it’s still looking to strengthen relations with its trading partners in the East. On Tuesday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Saudi Arabia — his third visit since 2016 to the kingdom, a major supplier of energy, buyer of goods, and source of remittances from Indian workers. Modi will meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah to discuss energy and food security, as well as further talks on a trade connectivity plan — originally backed by the Biden administration — known as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor.

Saudi Arabia pledged in 2023 to invest $100 billion in India, and the kingdom was India’s second-largest trading partner last year, with $43 billion in total trade, more than half of it in oil and gas.

Separately, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. opened a sales and marketing office in Beijing and signed a liquefied natural gas supply deal with China, part of its effort to strengthen its position in the world’s second-largest economy.

Tourism, retail driving Saudi property

A growing population and more tourists are fueling demand for retail space in Saudi Arabia, with momentum expected to continue until 2027. S&P Global says the kingdom’s retail sector is being transformed by a wave of new malls, entertainment venues, and mixed-use developments, but warns of a risk of oversupply, which would chip away at landlords’ profits but also lead to more competitive leases for tenants.

While some major projects, notably NEOM, are reportedly scaling back and delaying delivery timelines, others are progressing quickly. British architecture firm Foster + Partners has released the design for the Laheq Island residential development on the Red Sea, and Diriyah Company awarded $1.4 billion in contracts for a 2,000-seat opera house near Riyadh featuring a “Najdi aesthetic” — referring to the mudbrick buildings that were popular for centuries in the Najd region in central Saudi Arabia — using materials such as palm, stone, and earth.

Mohamed Shelbaya is the SVP and general manager, MENA Beverages, PepsiCo.

Dubai’s real estate… still surging

There is no slowdown in Dubai’s property market this year. Transactions rose 22% in the first quarter, with deal values reaching $39 billion — 30% higher than a year ago — making it one of the strongest quarters in more than a decade, according to real estate portal Property Finder. Projects are selling out quickly: 366 upscale residential units were snapped up in just two days in what will be the final tower built in the Dubai International Financial Centre.

To put Dubai’s market in perspective, more money was spent on its property last quarter than on all residential deals across Saudi Arabia’s three biggest cities — Riyadh, Jeddah, and Dammam — in the whole of 2024, according to recent data from Deloitte. Abu Dhabi also trails, recording just $2.6 billion in transactions in the first quarter.

Kuwait rations power for industrial sector

The number of hours per day that Kuwait plans to ration power to the industrial sector this summer. The oil-rich country ordered industrial facilities to halt operations daily from 11 am to 5 pm starting in June to ease pressure on its power grid. Kuwait is one of the hottest inhabited areas in the world and electricity demand, driven by air conditioning, surges in the summer. The energy-saving order, issued by the Public Authority for Industry, will remain in place indefinitely — though exceptions will be made for critical sectors such as food and pharmaceutical manufacturing.

Despite vast oil wealth, Kuwait struggles to meet domestic power needs. This month, authorities urged locals to cut their electricity use and imposed power cuts in 60 areas.

VCs hold fire amid market turmoil

Venture capitalists took a breather in March after a strong start to the year amid the uncertainty over a global trade war. Startups in the Middle East and North Africa raised 50% less in equity and debt in March, falling to $127.5 million for the month compared to a year ago. The drop off from February was steep, from $530 million, according to data compiled by venture capital new platform Wamda.

UAE companies attracted the bulk of the funding, with $104 million, while Saudi startups raised $8 million. Fintech remains the most active sector by far — securing $82.5 million — followed by healthtech and AI. Women founders received no funding in March.

Crypto shenanigans in Abu Dhabi

It’s inevitable in the world of crypto: increased adoption leads to more risk. Last week, a token issued by a Hong Kong blockchain company backed by Abu Dhabi’s Shorooq Partners plunged 90% in just a few hours, wiping out $5 billion in market value. The company had previously signed a $1 billion tokenization deal with Dubai property developer DAMAC Group. Around $250 million worth of the token was sold in the week leading up to the crash — Shorooq denied selling, news site AGBI reported.

Just days earlier, Abu Dhabi regulators fined crypto platform Hayvn $12.5 million and banned its CEO for “unlicensed financial services activity.” No client funds were lost.

Still, the UAE remains bullish on the space. MGX — backed by Mubadala and AI firm G42 — recently invested $2 billion in the world’s largest crypto exchange Binance. And Abu Dhabi-based DWF Labs disclosed a $25 million purchase of tokens tied to US President Donald Trump’s crypto venture, becoming one of its biggest holders.

The World Economy Summit 2025 is bringing together the decision-makers who are shaping the future of global economic policy. The three-day summit, taking place from April 23–25, 2025 in Washington, DC, will focus on ways leaders across business, finance, tech, and beyond are navigating the complexities of tariffs, shifting trade dynamics, and evolving policy landscapes.

Featuring on-the-record conversations with Mary Barra, Chair and CEO, General Motors; Scott Kirby, CEO, United Airlines; Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO, Uber; Ted Sarandos, Co-CEO, Netflix; Evan Spiegel, CEO, Snap; Kathy Warden, Chair, CEO and President, Northrop Grumman, and more, the summit will facilitate in-depth discussions on how countries are adapting to these challenges and building resilience in a rapidly changing world.

April 23-25 | Washington, DC | Learn More

Technology

• The UAE plans to boost its investment in artificial intelligence in the US and has made “very good and tangible progress” toward securing access to cutting-edge chips currently under US export restrictions, Abu Dhabi AI firm G42’s CEO said. The country pledged to invest $1.4 trillion in the US over a decade after a high-profile meeting with US President Donald Trump last month. — Bloomberg

Trade

• Saudi Arabia’s minister of industry and mineral resources signed a deal with his Indonesian counterpart to cooperate in mining and minerals processing, during a visit to Jakarta. The Saudi Export-Import Bank also agreed to pursue joint investments with Indonesia Eximbank. — Arab News

Transportation

• Looking for a ride to Abu Dhabi’s airport but short on cash? You can book an autonomous vehicle through Txai app, which is free during the pilot phase. Pickups are currently limited to Saadiyat and Yas Island, with 18 vehicles in the fleet. — Enterprise UAE

Foreign direct investment

• Foreign investors will be offered additional tax breaks, dedicated arbitration centres, and other incentives if they invest in Saudi Arabia’s Special Economic Zones, under an initiative launched by the kingdom’s Economic Cities and Special Zones Authority. — Saudi Gazette

Clean energy companies with significant operations in the US are shifting their messaging to argue that continued federal support is consistent with US President Donald Trump’s “energy dominance” agenda. Meanwhile, many are paring back references to climate change, an analysis of quarterly earnings calls transcripts over the last four years found.

Out of eight companies reviewed — a combination of energy providers, owners of electricity generation assets, and technology manufacturers — use of the terms “emissions” and “climate” and/or “environment” fell from a cumulative high of 45 across the companies’ earnings calls in early 2020 to just three by the beginning of this year, Semafor’s Mizy Clifton reported.