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Pope Francis dies, the IMF and World Bank spring meetings open amid economic gloom, Russia hammers U͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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April 21, 2025
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The World Today

  1. Pope Francis dead
  2. DC spring meetings open
  3. Trade talks in Washington
  4. Markets down on Fed threat
  5. Bukele swap dismissed
  6. Ukraine fighting resumes
  7. IDF blames ‘failures’
  8. Benin attack by al-Qaida
  9. The ‘age of extinction’
  10. Britain’s timber terraces

The London Review of Substacks, and a graphic memoir of an eventful life.

1

Pope Francis dies

Pope Francis
Yara Nardi/File Photo/Reuters

Pope Francis — the leader of the world’s Catholics, seen as a progressive in an otherwise conservative institution — died, aged 88. He had spent an extended period in hospital in February, but returned to partial duties and met with worshippers on Easter Sunday. Born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, the pontiff was a path-breaking leader: The first pope from the Americas or the Southern Hemisphere, and the first Jesuit, he championed social causes, appointed 140 cardinals from non-European countries, and was outspoken on political issues. Indeed, one of his last meetings was with US Vice President JD Vance, following which he issued an Easter speech outlining a worldview that The Washington Post noted was “in stark contrast” with that of the Trump administration.

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2

Spring meetings open amid gloom

IMF head Kristalina Georgieva
Leah Millis/Reuters

The World Bank and International Monetary Fund open their spring meetings this week amid plummeting global business and economic confidence as a result of US President Donald Trump’s trade war. The annual talks in Washington will focus on the fallout from the hike in American tariffs, with officials, analysts, and everyday voters worrying that they are likely to hammer US — and international — economic prospects: A twice-yearly Brookings-Financial Times index of business confidence fell to its lowest level on record while Trump’s economic approval is at its worst in either of his presidential terms. The US may face a summer downturn, a top Federal Reserve official warned, while Apollo’s chief economist projects a 90% likelihood of recession.

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The World Economy Summit
A promotional image for The World Economy Summit

The World Economy Summit 2025 is bringing together the decision-makers who are shaping the future of global economic policy. The three-day summit, taking place from April 23–25, 2025 in Washington, DC, will focus on ways leaders across business, finance, tech, and beyond are navigating the complexities of tariffs, shifting trade dynamics, and evolving policy landscapes.

Featuring on-the-record conversations with Doug Burgum, US Interior Secretary; Sean Duffy, US Transportation Secretary; Jörg Kukies, Federal Minister of Finance, Germany; Éric Lombard, Minister of Economy and Finance, France; Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer, United Kingdom; Chris Wright, US Energy Secretary, and more, the summit will facilitate in-depth discussions on how countries are adapting to these challenges and building resilience in a rapidly changing world.

April 23-25 | Washington, DC | Learn More

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3

Trade talks ramp up in DC

A port in Thailand
Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo/Reuters

Negotiations with Washington will ramp up this week as representatives of several Asian countries in particular aim to evade US President Donald Trump’s trade war. Delegations from South Korea and Thailand are due in town, while officials from India are reportedly set to visit, too, hoping to secure permanent reprieves before Trump’s 90-day pause on his “Liberation Day” tariffs expires. One country that appears unlikely to win any deal, though, is China: While the White House said Beijing has “reached out a number of times,” China if anything intensified its rhetoric against the duties — at least 145% on exports to the US — by vowing “resolute and reciprocal” countermeasures against any countries that agree deals with Washington at Beijing’s expense.

For more from Trump’s Washington, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. →

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4

Dollar falls on Trump’s Fed threat

A chart showing USD to EUR and GBP since the start of Trump’s second term

The dollar weakened and US stock futures fell as traders returning after the Easter weekend digested renewed reports that President Donald Trump wants to fire the chair of the Federal Reserve. Trump is studying whether such a dismissal is possible, the head of the National Economic Council said, helping drive gold to a new record as well. The president’s persistent public frustration with Fed Chair Jerome Powell has raised questions not just over the future direction of monetary policy — Trump wants rates lowered — but the independence of the central bank itself. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court may soon consider a major legal case over dismissals of officials at other independent agencies that could make it easier to fire Powell.

For more on the financial impact of Trump’s policies, subscribe to Semafor’s Business newsletter. →

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5

Bukele proposes prisoner swap

A chart showing El Salvador’s democracy scores since Bukele became president

El Salvador President Nayib Bukele proposed sending 252 Venezuelans deported from the US and imprisoned in his country to Venezuela in exchange for the release of political prisoners held by Caracas. The plan comes in response to criticism from Caracas that El Salvador is holding hundreds of Venezuelans in a maximum security prison — notorious for its ill-treatment of detainees — despite many of them never having been found guilty of a crime. The deportation policy has also led to a showdown between the White House and the US judiciary after Trump administration officials refused to follow an order from the US Supreme Court to facilitate the return of a migrant who was deported to El Salvador because of an administrative error.

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6

Russia hammers Ukraine

The aftermath of a strike in Ukraine
Iryna Rybakova/Ukrainian Armed Forces/Handout via Reuters

Russia launched a major aerial attack on Ukraine, definitively ending an Easter truce that Kyiv anyway said was repeatedly violated. Air raid sirens blared in the Ukrainian capital and parts of the eastern half of the country, while Russia itself accused Kyiv of undermining the one-day ceasefire. The resumption of fighting came with Washington voicing frustration over the slow pace of peace talks: US President Donald Trump said he hoped the two countries would “make a deal this week,” with The Wall Street Journal reporting that Ukraine in particular was under pressure from the White House to respond to American proposals that included major concessions to Moscow, including recognizing the annexation of Crimea and barring Ukraine from joining NATO.

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7

Israel admits ‘failures’ in Gaza

Benjamin Netanyahu
Moti Kimchi/Pool via Reuters

The Israeli military said “failures” led to the killing of 15 health workers in Gaza last month. The Israel Defense Forces had originally claimed that the vehicle convoy approached troops “suspiciously.” But in response to the new findings, officials said a commander would be dismissed. The announcement came a day after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country had “no choice” but to continue fighting in Gaza until the remaining Israeli hostages held in the enclave were released. Despite coming under domestic pressure, Netanyahu — emboldened by US President Donald Trump’s return to power — has recently gone on the offensive at home and abroad, a shift analysts say will have “profound consequences for Israel and the Middle East.”

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8

Benin showcases breakdown

A chart showing the countries with the highest terrorism index scores

An al-Qaida affiliate said it had killed 70 soldiers in two raids in Benin, the latest sign of the seemingly growing strength of extremist groups in the region. The attack, which led to the biggest death toll claimed by militants in the country in at least a decade, comes amid a worsening security situation across the Sahel, a region that straddles the Sahara which has in recent years been wracked by numerous military coups. The semi-arid area has become the “epicenter of global terrorism,” accounting for more deaths from terrorism than the rest of the world combined, a recent report showed. “The Sahel has experienced a breakdown in state society,” an expert told the BBC.

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9

‘Age of extinction’ looms

Ross Douthat speaking at a panel
Ross Douthat speaking at a panel. Flickr Creative Commons Photo/David Galalis.

The world faces an “age of extinction” threatening customs, culture, and entire peoples, a prominent columnist argued. “The idea that the internet carries a scythe is familiar,” Ross Douthat, a conservative writer, argued in The New York Times. “But the scale of the potential extinction still isn’t fully appreciated.” In his telling, a far broader array of sectors and entire ways of life are at risk than first appears, with the challenge to humanity from the onset of digital transformation and artificial intelligence — and their consequences — appearing to be an entirely voluntary one. What will be required, he contended, is “intentionality and intensity.”

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10

Britain mulls wooden houses

A brick house
Flickr Creative Commons Photo/Tim Daniels

Britain may look to timber to build houses to overcome a brick shortage. Wooden houses are commonplace in North America, whereas Britons — perhaps taking the story of the Three Little Pigs overly literally — prefer theirs made of brick. But the country needs to increase its home-building rate to ease a housing crisis, and one bottleneck is the availability of bricks and skilled bricklayers. Several construction firms say wood is cheaper, more readily available, and less carbon-intensive. Wood can also be pre-cut for easier assembly, not unlike flat-pack furniture, the Financial Times reported. There is patriotic precedent: A metals shortage during World War II led to British engineers creating the all-wooden De Havilland Mosquito, one of the war’s finest aircraft.

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Flagging
  • US Vice President JD Vance is due to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi.
  • Egyptians celebrate the start of spring with the Sham Ennessim festival.
  • Runners gear up for the 129th Boston Marathon.
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LRS
The London Review of Substacks

Fear factors

The Princeton researcher Rory Truex, a China expert, has had to abort trips to the country multiple times in the past and hasn’t been able to visit for several years: On occasion, he has emailed friends and contacts of his in China to inform them of his decision to avoid travel. Now, he notes forlornly, colleagues in Europe are writing similar notes to him about visiting the US. “The risk of a trip to the States just wasn’t worth it,” one fellow academic told him, fearful of the litany of headlines of travelers being detained or turned away at the American border.

The US, Truex argues, has in effect imposed a “fear tariff,” deterring “people, and the ideas they carry with them.” At a recent conference, Chinese researchers visiting the US urged their American colleagues to “be braver” and travel to China much as their counterparts had done to enter the US. The comment irked Truex, “as there seemed to be a false equivalence underlying it.” Yet, he concluded: “Fear tariffs are a feature of the authoritarian world — places like China, Russia, North Korea create barriers to outsiders, deterring critical voices from entering. The American fear tariff is nowhere near the levels in those countries, but it is no longer zero.”

Farm war

Ukraine is blessed with extraordinarily fertile soil, among the reasons it was a major global supplier of agricultural goods before Russia’s 2022 invasion. Yet since then — quite aside from the enormous death toll that has resulted — Ukraine’s soil has been devastated, dealing incalculable damage to the country, the international food system, and the global climate, because soil overall stores more carbon than the atmosphere and vegetation combined. Restoring Ukraine’s will require several steps, and cost at least $20 billion, according to a new study.

Incredibly, those figures may understate the complexity of the problem facing the country’s agricultural sector, Thin Lei Win noted in her food-focused newsletter: Ukraine’s soil was in trouble pre-2022 because of intensive farming. “And when the war stops and the soil is being somehow regenerated,” a researcher told her, “there will probably be an incentive for many people in Ukraine to not necessarily go to more sustainable agriculture, but to maybe go even more intensive, because, you know, there’s a country to rebuild.

Dead reckoning

What does it mean to die? The answer used to be fairly straightforward: When you stopped breathing and your heart stopped beating, you were dead. But since the middle of the 20th century, it has become less clear-cut. The invention of mechanical respirators, which could inflate your lungs if you stopped breathing, and cardiopulmonary bypass machines, which kept blood flowing without the heart’s input, blurred the lines. Now, patients can be kept alive for weeks by draining their blood, passing it through an artificial lung, and returning it.

“These once unimaginably futuristic technologies have severed the definition of death from its origins,” says the neuroscientist Ariel Zelznikow-Johnston in an extract from his new book. “Where it will finally settle is not obvious,” because there is no suggestion that technological advance will cease. While our current definition involves the death of the brain, it seems that the connections between our brain cells remain for many hours after even that, and could in theory be restored — meaning the person, and their memories, could. “A philosophically rigorous replacement for current death definitions,” says Zelznikow-Johnston, “is needed before this technological trend develops any further.”

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Semafor Recommends

The Dissident Club by Taha Siddiqui, illustrated by Herbert Maury, translated by David Homel. The graphic memoir charts Siddiqui’s eventful life as a Pakistani youth in Jeddah — at one point jumping into the compound of one Osama bin Laden — through to his career as a well-known journalist in his homeland: While “there’s a lot of heavy subject matter… he can be very funny,” Kirkus noted in its starred review. Pre-order The Dissident Club from your local bookstore.

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