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In today’s edition, we look at how the California lender could be rescued after customers pulled abo͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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April 25, 2023
semafor

Business

Business
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Liz Hoffman
Liz Hoffman

Hi and welcome back to Semafor Business, a twice-weekly look at the world of big money.

First Republic posted its financial results for one of the worst — certainly one of the weirdest — stretches in recent bank history and then promptly stopped talking. Its earnings call yesterday lasted 15 minutes and executives didn’t take any questions from analysts, not standard operating procedure for companies and never a sign of anything good.

But asking around, I found more optimism (and frustration) in the First Republic camp than I expected. The bank and its advisers haven’t given up hope of a consortium rescue and are puzzled by Washington’s lack of urgency in organizing serious industry talks. Read on for what a solution might look like.

And because I simply cannot outrun my past life as a banking reporter, I dug into the strange accounting behind Credit Suisse’s record profits. Plus an AI fundraising scoop from my colleague Reed Albergotti, Tuckernomics, and Japan’s central bank does some soul-searching.

Buy/Sell

➚ BUY: Corporations. Of some 60 companies that reported financial results this morning, three-quarters beat (admittedly low) investors’ expectations, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Consumers shrugged off price hikes, boosting earnings at McDonald’s, Pepsi, and Kleenex maker Kimberly-Clark. Microsoft and Alphabet report this afternoon.

➘ SELL: Coronations. Britain crowns a new king next week, but royal merch isn’t flying off the shelves. The founder of London’s Museum of Brands told The New York Times he had seen only a handful of businesses launching special products.

King Charles
Reuters Pool
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Semafor Stat

Market value lost by Fox after it fired star anchor Tucker Carlson yesterday and its stock fell 3%. Carlson never attracted blue-chip advertisers, though his show’s ad revenue rose to $77.5 million last year, according to Variety, and his huge ratings helped Fox negotiate fees with cable providers.

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Liz Hoffman

How First Republic could still be saved

Reuters/Mike Segar

THE NEWS

First Republic hasn’t given up hope that its competitors and the U.S. government will bail it out of a financial hole that is getting bigger by the day, people familiar with the matter said.

It’s been more than a month since First Republic, teetering on the edge of failure, was saved by emergency funds from the Federal Reserve and a slug of deposits from 11 U.S. banks.

But that solution was a stopgap at best. It saved First Republic from collapse but doomed it to a financial netherworld, not dead but not healthy. The government money is more expensive than the depositors’ cash it replaced, squeezing First Republic’s margins and leaving the bank a zombie, at least for a while.

Investors got their first clear picture of that reality yesterday, when the bank reported first-quarter results. Customers yanked more than half of their deposits, about $100 billion in a matter of weeks. The bank borrowed $80 billion from the federal government to fill the gap. The resulting 19% drop in loan profits is a preview of what’s to come. The stock dropped nearly 30% Tuesday morning as shareholders absorbed the news.

Conversations between big-bank executives and government regulators have been quietly happening, people familiar with the matter said. But they’ve stopped short of formal discussions with the biggest banks like JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup, whose buy-in would be needed to orchestrate a permanent rescue — much less the kind of in-person pressure campaign, involving black cars ferrying executives down to the New York Fed — that will likely be required to get the industry to bail out one of its own.

LIZ’S VIEW

An industry rescue is the smart move for everyone.

More here on the outlines of a plan being kicked around among the First Republic’s camp. The math makes sense to me, should appeal to the commercial instincts of the biggest banks, and avoids reopening the question — never fully settled — of whether the government is explicitly guaranteeing all retail deposits.

So far depositors and stockholders have accepted Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s squishy promise that all deposits “are safe.” Pressure-testing it can only go badly.

ROOM FOR DISAGREEMENT

Oligopolies are hard to corral, and some of the biggest banks might prefer an FDIC seizure, hoping to pick up First Republic’s assets and the clients who stuck around at a steep discount.

NOTABLE

  • Read JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s annual letter for his take on the recent banking turmoil.
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Read This

My boss, Ben Smith, details the inside story of two online media rivals, Jonah Peretti of HuffPost and BuzzFeed and Nick Denton of Gawker Media, whose delirious pursuit of attention at scale helped release the dark forces that would overtake the internet and American society. I read it, it’s great, and you can pre-order it here.

And read an excerpt about Buzzfeed’s fateful decision — backed by Ben — to turn down a Disney acquisition in 2013, as well as his account of his decision to publish the Trump-Russia dossier in 2017.

Penguin
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Evidence

The Bank of Japan will review decades’ worth of policies that produced a stagnant economy and negative interest rates. The country never really recovered from its lost decades, following a real-estate bust in the early 1990s, and its aging population is a drag on growth.

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Liz Hoffman

Explaining Credit Suisse’s record quarter

THE NEWS

Credit Suisse posted its highest quarterly profit ever — very nearly the biggest haul by any bank in history — as it was dying.

The bank booked $13.9 billion in net income during the three-month stretch in which it nearly failed and was merged by the Swiss government with rival UBS in a firesale.

The boon came from Credit Suisse writing down $17 billion of bonds, which were “bailed in” — maybe legally, maybe not; the bondholders are now suing — to cover losses. It shows the quirks of financial accounting, which, on the heels of the regional-bank turmoil in the U.S. earlier this year, is interesting in a way it hasn’t been since 2008.

LIZ’S VIEW

The riskier a company is, the cheaper its bonds trade. That gap between the face value of the debt and the trading value is, by the magic of accounting, a boost to the company because it could in theory buy back those bonds at a discount and zero out a future payment.

Taken to its extreme, that means that a company’s most profitable day is the day before it goes bankrupt.

During the 2008 meltdown, weak banks padded their earnings through this sleight of hand. The reverse happened on the way out of the crisis, when banks that were becoming safer by the day were posting big paper losses. It made no sense, and it made reporters’ lives unpleasant.

That was obviously dumb, and the U.S. body that sets accounting rules essentially got rid of it. Even if they hadn’t, bank debt traded calmly and near 100 cents on the dollar for most of the past decade, so it didn’t really matter.

The Credit Suisse windfall is slightly different and more defensible. It wasn’t that the bank theoretically could have bought back those bonds at a discount; it did buy them back, and for $0, quite the bargain. (Among those stung, we reported last month, were employees, who had been paid partly in those bonds for years.) But it’s a reminder that accounting rules are fine as far as they go, but often that isn’t very far.

ROOM FOR DISAGREEMENT

You’d get exactly the opposite takeaway from one of the biggest corporate collapses in history.

In the early 1990s, Enron lobbied regulators for the right to ditch traditional accounting methods and instead slap market prices on its investments. When the Securities & Exchange Commission signed off, CEO Jeff Skilling held a champagne toast celebrating the change, which let Enron decide what its investments were worth and record upfront windfalls on future profits that were fuzzy at best.

NOTABLE

  • The Financial Times has a fun rundown of Credit Suisse analysts giving their take on the Silicon Valley Bank meltdown and awkwardly omitting their own bank’s predicament.
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Intel
Replit

Replit, the fast-growing service that uses artificial intelligence to write computer code, closed a $97.4 million fundraising round that valued the startup at about $1.2 billion, my colleague Reed Albergotti scoops today.

The funding, led by Andreessen Horowitz, Khosla Ventures, and Coatue, is part of a wave of investment in AI startups as services like ChatGPT captivate businesses and consumers.

Replit’s user base of developers has more than doubled since the end of 2021, to 22.5 million, when it last raised money at an $800 million valuation. Its growth is being closely watched because it sits at the heart of the artificial intelligence race, at the intersection of software development and AI.

Replit CEO Amjad Masad told Reed that the company will use the money to hire and attract bigger players to the platform. Replit and companies like it hope to enable people with little to no technical experience to write complex software programs.

More likely in the short term is that AI-assisted software development will help experienced developers do more with less. Masad predicts it will spawn one-person, billion-dollar companies.

— Reed

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— Liz and Bradley

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