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Russia makes territorial gains in Ukraine, Macron seeks overseas investment, and how smart vehicles ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
snowstorm Kharkiv
cloudy Paris
sunny Port-au-Prince
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May 13, 2024
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The World Today

  1. Ukraine losing ground
  2. Israel expands assault
  3. Europe’s separatists falter
  4. Macron seeks investment
  5. China sells rare bonds
  6. US sends Haiti aid
  7. Cloud deletes company
  8. Africa internet outages
  9. Music industry growth
  10. Traffic light changes

The London Review of Substacks, and a lost play by a British suffragette.

1

Russian battlefield progress

Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters

Russia made significant battlefield progress against Ukraine. Moscow’s troops are winning more land each day than at any point since the early days of their 2022 invasion, while Kyiv’s forces are trading blame in retreat, The New York Times reported. Ukraine’s top general admitted that the situation in the northeastern Kharkiv region was “difficult,” while another commander told the BBC of his frustration at seeing Russian troops walk across a border post unopposed. Russian momentum is in part thanks to squabbles — now resolved — in Washington over aid to Kyiv, the military expert Phillips P. O’Brien wrote, resulting in a Ukraine hamstrung by a lack of materiel, and a Russia racing “to try and gain as much as possible before US aid arrived.”

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2

Gaza battles expand

Dawoud Abu Alkas/Reuters

Israel’s military expanded its offensive into the Gazan border town of Rafah even as renewed fighting elsewhere in the enclave underlined Hamas’ staying power. The group’s revival in northern Gaza demonstrated what The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal both noted has been a theme of the seven-month war, in which Israel has hammered an area and declared it free of Hamas, only to see militants reemerge and battles reignite. The latest fighting appeared to confirm a weekend warning from the US secretary of state that Israel was “on the trajectory, potentially, to inherit an insurgency with many armed Hamas left or … a vacuum filled by chaos, filled by anarchy, and probably refilled by Hamas.”

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3

Spain and UK separatists falter

Nacho Doce/Reuters

The Spanish prime minister’s Socialist Party won the largest share of votes in Catalonia’s elections, denting the hopes of the region’s once-powerful separatist movement. As recently as 2017, Catalan nationalists were sufficiently emboldened to attempt to declare independence unilaterally, although the move fizzled out. Scotland’s separatist movement is also struggling: The Scottish National Party, which has dominated regional politics for over decade, is in chaos following the resignation of its leader and is likely to lose ground to Labour in UK-wide elections expected this year. Until recently, the breakup of two of Europe’s largest nations looked likely; now, that prospect is more distant.

For more from the world’s most interesting and important votes, check out Semafor’s Global Election Hub. →

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4

Argent urgent, says Macron

French President Emmanuel Macron opens a summit today to court foreign investment. Paris traditionally lags behind New York and London as a global hub, and Macron wants to change that. The “Choose France” event will see around $16 billion in pledged investment, from firms including Amazon, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca, while Wall Street bank Morgan Stanley will open a new office in the French capital. Growth in France is anemic, and there is concern over its budget deficit: The French finance minister said Europe must do more in the face of competition from the US and China. “Europe needs money,” he said. “If not, it will continue to lose out.”

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5

China readies major bond issues

Chinese authorities outlined plans to sell $140 billion of long-maturity bonds as part of efforts to bolster economic growth and reduce pressure from a persistent local-government debt crisis. The issuance is only the fourth of its kind: Earlier “special sovereign bonds” were used to recapitalize Chinese banks in 1998, set up a sovereign wealth fund in 2007, and combat the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Financial Times reported. Its unusual nature points to the challenges facing Beijing, with growth weighed down by flagging domestic consumption and debt challenges enveloping the country’s mammoth property developers and cash-strapped local governments. Analysts said the bonds — which will focus on upgrading infrastructure — could raise growth by 1 percentage point.

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6

US sends aid to Haiti

Hector Retamal/Getty

The US began flying contractors and equipment to Haiti to support the deployment of a long-delayed international police force. The effort, led by 1,000 Kenyan police officers, is aimed at pacifying the Caribbean nation, swaths of which are now controlled by violent gangs. Almost two million Haitians are on the verge of famine as economic activity has collapsed. In response to the hopeless living conditions, thousands are seeking solace in Vodou, a religion shunned publicly for centuries. “Whenever the community has a big problem, they come here, because there is no justice in Haiti,” a Vodou priest told the Associated Press.

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7

Google Cloud deletes pension fund

Annegret Hilse/Reuters

Half a million Australian pension-fund members lost access to their accounts after Google Cloud deleted the company’s account. A “one-of-a-kind … misconfiguration” led to the entirety of UniSuper’s data being deleted from Google’s servers. The data is usually backed up in two geographic locations, but because the fund’s account itself was deleted, Google removed both backups. UniSuper had a third backup with another provider, meaning customers’ data was restored after a week, but the near-catastrophe is “a lesson for companies leaping cloudwards,” noted The Register: “Someone clicking the wrong button, a previously unknown bug, an unforeseen series of events, or a combination of all three could have dire consequences.”

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Plug

For must-read political news and insight from around the globe — check out GZERO Daily. Each edition packs in coverage of the key people and events defining the geopolitical landscape, all from a nonpartisan perspective. Featuring a weekly edition from world-renowned political scientist Ian Bremmer and another devoted to the latest trends in AI, GZERO Daily delivers smart, lively and impactful news. Join global decision makers who trust GZERO Daily to make sense of a world in crisis — subscribe for free here.

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8

East Africa internet troubles

Faults in undersea cables caused internet disruptions across East Africa, highlighting the vulnerability of the web’s infrastructure. In March, people across West Africa were affected after similar cable disruptions caused internet traffic to slow, forcing Nigerian banks to close. In response to Africa’s susceptibility to internet disruptions, a consortium of international telecom providers is building 2Africa, the largest subsea internet cable ever developed. The 28,000-mile cable, which stretches around the continent, is expected to bring a “huge boost” in internet capacity and resilience to Africa, where hundreds of millions remain without access to the web.

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9

Developing world drives music growth

The music industry is growing faster than expected, driven by growth in the developing world and live performances. A Goldman Sachs report forecast that global sales will grow 7.6% in 2024, and that the number of new tracks available on streaming will jump 11% year-on-year. Emerging markets accounted for 60% of new streaming subscribers, the report found, and the share is expected to jump to 70% by 2030, as the developing world’s growing middle class finds itself with more disposable income. Local, non-English acts account for a large share of the industry. Forecasted revenue from live music also jumped significantly, off the back of superstars such as Taylor Swift and Beyoncé who had not toured since before COVID.

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10

Smarter cars lead to traffic changes

PXhere

The rise of smarter vehicles is leading to the first major changes to traffic lights in a century. The current system has been in place since 1917, when a Detroit police officer added an amber light: Originally an officer operated them, but most have long had fixed timings. A new pilot program — also in Detroit — used GPS data from nearby cars to change the signals’ timing, smoothing traffic flow. In future, if there are enough autonomous vehicles on the road, traffic lights may even gain a color to indicate that human drivers should simply follow the car in front, one engineering professor told the Associated Press. Eventually, the lights may no longer be necessary at all.

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Flagging
  • South Korea’s foreign minister travels to Beijing to meet his Chinese counterpart for rare talks.
  • Russia’s central bank will publish its medium-term economic forecast.
  • Gucci’s creative director debuts his cruise collection at London’s Tate Modern.
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LRS

Pet hate

Some places ban pets; some landlords refuse to let tenants own pets; some bars or shops might not allow them in. But under US law, service animals — guide dogs for the blind, for instance — must be allowed to accompany their owners. Recently, that law has been expanded in many places to include “emotional support animals,” which help people with mental health problems: So if a depressed person finds her dog makes her feel better, her landlord must let her keep it. “Clinically and scientifically, this is great,” says the psychiatrist Scott Alexander on Astral Codex Ten. “Legally, it’s a racket.”

To get your pet declared an emotional support animal, you need a psychiatrist to write a letter saying that it is. But there’s no sensible system of evaluation, and even if the psychiatrist decides not to sign the letter, third-party organizations will definitely sign it anyway for $100: It’s “an insistence on gatekeepers with a total lack of interest over whether they actually gatekeep.” Alexander has no solutions, but “I just feel like I incur a little spiritual damage every time I approve somebody’s ADHD snake or autism iguana or anorexia pangolin or whatever.”

Phoning it in

Everyone’s very worried about kids and phones at the moment. Some places, notably France, are considering banning younger children from accessing social media. And recently, fuel was added to the fire by a widely publicized, albeit unpublished, study which purported to find that schools in Norway which banned phones on the premises saw a 29% reduction in students’ mental health symptoms, a 43% reduction in bullying, and an improvement in grades.

The psychologist Chris Ferguson, on his Substack Secrets of Grimoire Manor, though, notes one or two caveats. First, the highlighted figures might seem impressive — 29% sounds like a lot! — but they’re actually “tiny, statistically speaking,” and, by the conventions of scientific publishing, indistinguishable from a fluke. More importantly, most of the schools studied never actually banned phones: “Most simply required students to set their phone to silent mode during class.” The study adds little to the smartphones-and-teens debate, says Ferguson, but it is a further demonstration of “how low the bar is for evidence as regards to our current social media panic.”

Sweet science

The physicist Richard Feynman once said that “a scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy.” But scientists — and scientific institutions — love to get involved in nonscientific questions. This month, the mathematician Oliver Johnson notes on his Substack, Scientific American published an opinion piece about campus protests over Gaza. “The piece is fine, I think, on its own terms,” says Johnson. “However, I think that it’s wrong and damaging for it to appear in this venue.”

Questions about politics and morals “aren’t questions like ‘what is the mass of the proton?’ or ‘what is the effectiveness of this vaccine?’, which can be resolved by experiment and data,” says Johnson. Science doesn’t take place in vacuum, but scientists should be careful not to “blur the line between science and activism any more than is strictly necessary … if we as a community are to retain the trust of the general public.”

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Curio
Flickr

A lost play by the suffragette Sylvia Pankhurst was performed in London. The British social activist wrote Between Two Fires while imprisoned for sedition in 1920-21. Denied writing materials in solitary confinement, she composed the play using a contraband pencil on prison-issued toilet paper. Nearly 100 years later her biographer, Rachel Holmes, discovered “the delicate fragments jumbled into brown envelopes” deep within an archive, going on to analyze and transcribe the text. The play, published in 2022, is a powerful dramatization of political movements drawing from Pankhurst’s own experiences and was recently shared with audiences at The London Library after being expanded with newly found material.

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