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In today’s edition, we have a scoop on how the Massachusetts Democrats got ex-aides to help Martin G͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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May 16, 2024
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Liz Hoffman
Liz Hoffman

Hi and welcome back to Semafor Business.

Few people have loomed larger over post-2008 finance than Elizabeth Warren. As a Harvard professor in 2007, she floated the idea of a new government agency that would regulate credit cards and mortgages the way the Consumer Products Safety Commission regulates lawnmowers and swivel chairs. When the 2008 crisis made clear the need for exactly that kind of watchdog, she helped create it. As a US senator, she’s been a thorn in the side of Wall Street executives. The diaspora of former proteges and staffers are a progressive force in key government roles and Washington think tanks.

That credibility is now being tested, with potentially significant consequences for how banks are overseen. Marty Gruenberg, whom Warren championed to run the FDIC, is being pressured to resign in the wake of a damning independent report about workplace bullying and harassment. Today’s scoop shows Warren running a full-court press to protect him, and shows the political calculus that has the “nevertheless, she persisted” senator defending a regulator accused of turning a blind eye to sexual harassment and debauchery in service of a regulatory agenda that would rein in Wall Street.

Plus, another canary in the real-estate coal mine, and the private credit industry’s talking points.

And in case you missed it, read Semafor editor-in-chief Ben Smith’s scoop on the latest billionaire bid for TikTok, a “people’s bid” with “values-aligned capital” to create a “new and better version of the internet.” Woof.

Buy/Sell

➚ BUY: Securities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record 40,000, which means it’s time for a reminder that the Dow is a badly designed index that became popular because it could be calculated by hand in 1896 and retains its hold on American finance simply because it’s been around a long time.

➘ SELL: Security. One of the most sensitive pieces of economic data in the world right now — US inflation numbers — was accidentally published half an hour early. Even stranger, nobody seemed to notice. The Labor department is now investigating.

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The Tape

China kicks off $138B economy-boosting bond saleIsraeli economy rebounds… Earnings beat pushes Walmart past $500B... Buffett’s mystery stock is Chubb… Toshiba to cut 4K jobs… We’re running out of cocoa

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Liz Hoffman

Warrenland circles wagons around FDIC chief

THE SCOOP

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, known for calling Wall Street executives to task for management failures, has been running a behind-the-scenes campaign to protect a top banking regulator from documented allegations that he presided over a toxic workplace.

Ex-top aides to the Massachusetts Democrat helped FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg prepare for congressional hearings this week, when he was set to be grilled about a scathing report from an independent law firm that found widespread sexual harassment and bullying at the agency, which oversees thousands of US banks, people familiar with the matter said.

Gruenberg testified before the House yesterday, when he apologized and said he would take anger management classes, and will appear before a Senate committee at 10 a.m. today.

Rohit Chopra, a former Warren protege who now runs the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, went to the FDIC’s headquarters last week to run Gruenberg through likely questions he would face and practice his answers, the people said. Chopra is a board member of the FDIC.

When that session went poorly, Warren’s former chief of staff tried again. Dan Geldon, who worked for Warren until 2020 and now runs a Washington consulting firm, went through a mock hearing with Gruenberg over the weekend, some of the people said.

Warren’s office and the CFPB declined to comment. The FDIC and Geldon didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

Leah Millis/Reuters

KNOW MORE

An investigation by law firm Cleary Gottlieb found an agency rife with sexual harassment, bullying, and discrimination, where complaints were ignored and offenders went unpunished. The findings have put pressure on Gruenberg, who has been a fixture at the FDIC since 2005, in rotating stints as its chair and a board member. The report found that Gruenberg contributed to a culture of bullying and that underlings, scared of being berated, were reluctant to bring him bad information.

That information breakdown has led some critics to tie Gruenberg’s temper to lapses at the FDIC last spring, when three regional banks failed and the agency was slow to seize them, spurring worries about a contagion that forced the government to guarantee deposits at two of the banks. Republican members of Congress and at least one Democrat have called on him to resign.

But Gruenberg, a progressive who has pushed tougher rules on Wall Street throughout his career, is key to a financial-regulation agenda that includes forcing banks to hold more capital, reining in bonuses, and intensifying merger reviews. If he were to be forced out of his role, the FDIC would be paralyzed, split evenly between Democratic and Republican board members and at least temporarily run by a Republican, Travis Hill.

“There’s plenty of blame to go around,” said Dennis Kelleher, of the progressive think tank Better Markets. “This is outrageous, but to attack the Democrat only, which has the inevitable result of stalling this important work, is so clearly partisan politics.”

(In a bit of good news for Warren, the Supreme Court this morning rejected a constitutional challenge that would have dismantled or gutted the CFPB. Warren first proposed the idea of a consumer-focused financial regulator in 2007 when she was a professor at Harvard, and was appointed by former President Barack Obama to create the agency after the global financial crisis.)

LIZ’S VIEW

Neither Gruenberg nor Warren nor progressive allies in DC who have fallen into line now would let a bank CEO who fostered a workplace this toxic stay in the job. “Your definition of accountable is to push the blame to your low-level employees who don’t have the money for a fancy PR firm to defend themselves,” Warren told John Stumpf, the then-CEO of Wells Fargo during its fake-accounts scandal. “It’s gutless leadership.”

Their entire exchange, from 2016, is worth reading and comparing to Warren’s statement to the American Banker after the FDIC report was released: “Chair Gruenberg has accepted responsibility, and I support his work to implement the action plan to improve the FDIC’s culture.”

It’s a strange hill to die on. The agenda that Democrats are rallying around Gruenberg to protect isn’t particularly robust or likely to go anywhere. Proposed rules requiring banks to hold more capital are likely to be significantly watered down, and may not even be reworked before the election in November. Rules curbing banker bonuses were mandated by the Dodd-Frank law 14 years ago and still haven’t been finalized, and the latest version lacks the needed support of the Federal Reserve.

Kelleher's Room for Disagreement on why Wells Fargo is different.  →

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Evidence

Investors in commercial real-estate are running for the exits. As debt costs soar and return-to-work realism sets in over the office market, investors in Barry Sternlicht’s property fund tried to pull $500 million, or about 5% of the fund’s assets. Starwood Real Estate Income Trust, like most nontraded real-estate funds, caps withdrawals to 2% of assets each month, and so gave investors about a third of what they asked for, in part by selling assets and tapping its $1.5 billion credit line. Blackstone’s version, known as BREIT, has also seen withdrawals exceed the monthly cap, though the firm found the cash in March to satisfy all requests.

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What We’re Tracking

Nothing to see here: Talking points circulating among Wall Street investors and lobbyists this week are pushing back on the idea that private credit is risky. Trade groups were quick to flag Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments Tuesday that credit funds aren’t vulnerable to bank-like runs because their money comes from “limited partners who have their investment locked up for many years” and have also highlighted similar remarks from a Fed governor’s speech earlier this month. Losses have been low, but shaky signals are starting to pop up and funds are amending loan terms rather than declaring defaults.

Mind-Bogling: Vanguard’s new CEO is the first leader of the giant money manager who didn’t work for founder John Bogle, who pioneered a new kind of investing — the mutual fund — and ushered in the era of cheap stock ownership for the masses. An outsider “with the zeal of a convert,” former BlackRock executive Salim Ramji takes over at a key moment: At $9 trillion, Vanguard “has never been a bigger force in the passive investing world it helped create” than now, Bloomberg writes, and has nearly closed BlackRock’s lead in ETFs. But with that size has come increased scrutiny from regulators and customer-service problems, and higher costs have tested Vanguard’s commitment to ultralow fees. Ramji’s tenure will test whether Vanguard, based in leafy suburban Philadelphia, can resist the Wall Street-ificiation of its quirky, cult-light culture and approach to investing.

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