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OpenAI and Google call for AI regulation, Brazil declares an avian flu emergency, and cargo ships re͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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sunny Kyiv
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May 23, 2023
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Flagship

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The World Today

  1. Regulate us, say AI chiefs
  2. Brazil avian flu emergency
  3. Still no deal on debt ceiling
  4. China local government crisis
  5. Allies slow to supply Ukraine
  6. Russian partisans attack Russia
  7. Kyiv’s high-pressure offensive
  8. Extreme weather deaths down
  9. The return of the sailing ship
  10. Showcasing Africa’s art

PLUS: Texting with the author of a new book about Xi Jinping, and Taylor Swift fans doing it for themselves in the Philippines.

1

AI giants call for AI regulation

Bing Image Creator. Prompt: "A regulatory agency to oversee artificial intelligence"

An international agency is needed to regulate superintelligent artificial intelligence systems, the founders of OpenAI argued. They said AI systems could be better than humans at most intellectual tasks within 10 years. That could “lead to a much better world than we see today,” but carries risks. They proposed a regulatory body like the International Atomic Energy Agency, with authority to carry out audits and inspections on AI developers. In the Financial Times, Google’s CEO also said that AI is “too important not to regulate well.” Big companies often back regulatory hurdles that could keep smaller competitors out of the market, but both OpenAI and Google have consistently warned of the risks of AI.

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2

Growing avian flu fears

​​Brazil declared a six-month animal health emergency after several cases of avian flu were found in wild birds. Although no cases have been detected in the biggest poultry-producing regions, an outbreak could have a devastating impact on the Brazilian economy, and global food supply: Brazil’s poultry exports are worth nearly $10 billion a year, almost twice that of the U.S., the next biggest exporter. The cases are part of the world’s biggest-ever avian flu outbreak, which started in October 2021. Scientists remain unsure why this outbreak has proven so resilient, with the World Health Organization saying it will track the flu’s spread to understand whether it can mutate to a form that can spread in humans.

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3

‘Productive’ debt talks but no deal

REUTERS/Leah Millis

U.S. President Joe Biden said a debt default was “off the table” after talks with House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy that both men described as “productive,” although no deal was reached. The U.S. could default on its debt by June 1. “No corner of the global economy will be spared” if it does, an analyst told the Associated Press, from U.S. jobs to Chinese factories. A default would also damage trust in U.S. debt, widely seen as a safe asset, triggering a “cataclysmic” global financial crisis.

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4

China’s growing debt problem

Concerns are growing over the debt amassed by China’s local governments. Estimated liabilities total nearly $10 trillion, according to Caixin, a business-focused Chinese magazine. That’s about twice as much as the entire annual GDP of Japan. Local governments took on huge amounts of debt to build infrastructure, but also to pay for sprawling surveillance systems and COVID-19 controls imposed by Beijing. Investors fear the loans will be a drag on economic growth, and could even trigger a banking crisis. Officials are cutting spending in response, leading residents in one city near the Russian border to complain of a lack of indoor heating during the winter, while a southwestern province warned recently of a risk of default.

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5

Ukraine’s ammo needs

The U.S. and its allies are far behind on producing and supplying much-needed artillery shells to Ukraine. Ahead of a long-planned Ukrainian counteroffensive, American and European officials have insisted they are pushing defense manufacturers to ramp up output. “In the U.S., we’ve done everything we can to expand capacity, and still we’re producing around 14,000 shells a month, and the Ukrainians are firing 6-to-7,000 a day,” Rep. Jeff Jackson, D-N.C., told Semafor’s Tanya Lukyanova. The Pentagon is currently on track to increase its artillery production sixfold, but only by 2025.

Watch Tanya’s mini-documentary on Ukraine’s ammo shortage, and subscribe to our Security newsletter for more on the issue.

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6

Pro-Ukraine partisans attack Russia

A Kyiv-backed Russian paramilitary group pushed five miles into Russia, attacking border posts. They declared the “Belgorod People’s Republic,” a deliberate echo of the fake Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” set up by Moscow-backed forces ahead of last year’s full-scale invasion. Kyiv denied involvement, saying Ukraine had “nothing to do” with the attack, that the groups were composed of “Russian citizens,” and that “tanks are sold at any Russian military store.” The incident highlights “vulnerabilities in Russian defense lines and their inability to effectively counter such incursions,” the Centre for Defence Strategies, a Ukrainian think tank, said.

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7

Kyiv’s high-stakes counteroffensive

REUTERS/Peter Nicholls

Western officials are increasingly concerned about losing domestic political support for aiding Ukraine if its coming counteroffensive fails to gain significant ground from Russia, the Financial Times reported. The piece by its chief foreign affairs commentator is among several recent stories spotlighting worries over wavering backing for Ukraine, particularly in the United States. With that in mind, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been rallying Republicans in the American heartland to stand alongside Kyiv, Politico reported. It is an effort with historical parallels: Soon after World War II, at a college in Fulton, Missouri, Johnson’s hero Winston Churchill delivered his famous Iron Curtain speech, warning of the threat from the Soviet Union.

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8

The changing cost of extreme weather

Extreme weather causes more damage, but fewer deaths, than it used to. Storms, droughts, and other such events cost the world nearly $1.5 trillion in the 2010s, compared to $183 billion in the 1970s, according to the World Meteorological Organization. That’s largely because as the world gets richer there are more valuable things to destroy. But the number of people killed by those disasters fell from over half a million in the 1980s to 184,000 in the 2010s, despite a far larger global population. Improved early warning systems and disaster management “slashed the human casualty toll,” the WMO said.

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9

A return to the age of sail

Bernard Spragg/Flickr

Retrofitting cargo ships with wing-like sails could reduce the shipping industry’s carbon footprint. A specially designed ship, capable of carrying 7,000 cars and fitted with three huge wingsails, is expected to launch in 2026, WIRED reported, and will be at least 60% more efficient than existing transporters. But even fitting sails to existing ships can reduce their fuel use by 10% or more. The sails are inspired by high-performance racing yachts and work more like wings than traditional sails. They can also be lowered flat, to allow ships to travel through the Panama or Suez canals.

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10

Africa’s art footprint

I-54.com

A fast-growing art fair showcased the growing popularity of art from Africa and its diaspora. The I-54 Contemporary African Art Fair — named for the continent’s 54 countries — held its largest annual exhibition yet in New York City, with a particular focus on artists from Nigeria. The fair, which also holds exhibitions in London and Marrakech each year, began as the brainchild of a French Moroccan telecoms executive. “I didn’t understand why [African artists] were not part of the mainstream of the global stage,” she told The New York Times. “There was no question about them not being good enough.”

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Flagging
  • Qatar hosts its annual economic forum featuring regional and international leaders in business and government.
  • Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik meets Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin.
  • Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City premieres at the Cannes Film Festival.
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One Good Text

Chun Han Wong is a China Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, and the author of Party of One, a new book out today about Xi Jinping’s rise and his political vision.

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Curio
Eva Rinaldi/WikimediaCommons

Taylor Swift has so far only announced U.S. tour dates for her acclaimed Eras Tour, so Swifties in the Philippines took matters in their own hands. A fan group hosted “The Eras Festival” on Sunday, putting on a concert that matched much of Swift’s tour, down to the costumes, setlist, and visual effects. Thousands packed a Manila-area mall as a drag performer stood in for the pop star, dancing and lip syncing for nearly an hour and a half. It also served as a petition to urge Swift to play a show in the Philippines, which has been snubbed for her past two tours.

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