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Gates, arguably the world’s top individual climate tech investor, discusses the limits of climate po͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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June 26, 2024
semafor

Net Zero

Climate
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Hotspots
  1. What to ask
  2. Software bet
  3. Beating the green premium
  4. China’s EV subsidies
  5. Climate-fighting AI

How to win the new climate version of Catan, according to its designer.

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1

What to ask at the presidential debate

 
Tim McDonnell
Tim McDonnell
 
Mike Segar/Reuters

The US presidential debate on Thursday is a chance to put Donald Trump on the record about one of the trickiest environmental issues he’d face as president: What to do about the Inflation Reduction Act. Democrat Joe Biden made a strategic pivot on climate policy from former US President Barack Obama, focused on incentivizing good stuff (renewables, EVs) rather than penalizing bad stuff (coal plant emissions). One advantage of this shift is that it undermines the conventional Republican argument against climate action: that it chokes off investment and raises costs.

Of $206 billion in cleantech investing that has been announced since the IRA, 78% has gone to Republican-majority districts. When CNN’s Jake Tapper and Dana Bash raise the issue of climate (and I hope they do), they should press Trump on his vision for that investment. Rolling back Biden’s climate agenda would take a major toll on newly-created jobs and strand billions of dollars of investment, including from oil companies themselves for hydrogen, carbon management, and other tech. Is that a sound economic strategy? The moderators could also probe for differences between the candidates’ positions on raising trade barriers with China, which on the surface are somewhat similar. And while they’re at it, if time allows, it never hurts to ask one more time if climate change is real, dangerous, and caused primarily by human greenhouse gas emissions.

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2

Volkswagen’s software bet

Joel Angel Juarez/Reuters

Software could be Rivian’s saving grace. The EV startup locked in a $5 billion deal with Volkswagen to supply it with EV software, coming to the German legacy automaker’s rescue after Volkswagen’s in-house software developer repeatedly missed deadlines, holding up the company’s EV rollout. But the real winner is Rivian, which has yet to turn a profit despite rising sales, and lost $1.5 billion in the first quarter. The bankruptcy of Fisker this month was a clear warning about what lay ahead for Rivian without additional revenue. Licensing software is a smart play that leverages the company’s Silicon Valley ethos to offset the punishing economics of manufacturing; as EVs’ engineering designs become more standardized, software will increasingly be a differentiating factor for buyers. Wall Street is pleased; Rivian’s stock price jumped 32% on the news.

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3

Bill Gates: The climate tipping point that really matters

 
Tim McDonnell
Tim McDonnell
 
Bryan Olin Dozier/NurPhoto via Reuters

AI and data center companies can push down the costs of climate tech by leveraging their power as massive buyers of clean energy and industrial materials — and they should, Bill Gates told Semafor.

Gates, arguably the world’s top individual investor in climate tech, broke ground this month on the first next-generation nuclear power plant in the US. He has since pledged to invest “billions more” in plants like it, which he sees as the most promising way to supply the upcoming boom in power demand for data centers and EVs.

But there’s a key hurdle that the new plant, in Wyoming — and others to come — needs to overcome: It has to produce cost-competitive electricity, a prerequisite for widespread adoption. Gates is confident that it will. But much of his broader climate tech portfolio has yet to pass that test. The next generation of climate tech is critical for emissions that remain unaddressed. What’s holding it back, he said, is that there still aren’t enough early buyers willing to stomach the “green premium” until it can gain enough scale.

There are some problems in the energy transition even pockets as deep as Gates’ can’t solve.

The lesson he takes away from a decade investing in climate tech is that the “green premium” — how much more expensive the low-carbon option is compared to conventional power — is the only data point that really matters. Few consumers and businesses are willing to pay a green premium no matter how much they might care about the environment. If that premium can be eliminated in key technologies, Gates believes, it will be a tipping point on the way to solving climate change; if we don’t, climate will be much more difficult to solve.

Read on for Gates' view on the risk of a trade war with China and the next steps for advanced nuclear power. →

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4

China’s EV subsidies

Approximate total Chinese government investment in the country’s EV sector from 2009 to 2023. That spending — a likely conservative estimate, since there are many forms of indirect subsidies that are hard to track — “fundamentally altered the playing field to make it much harder for others to compete in China or anywhere else where Chinese EVs are sold,” according to a Center for Strategic and International Studies report, and underlay the widespread conviction in Washington that tariffs are necessary and justified. Still, China’s government spending as a share of EV sales is falling rapidly. And what really drove innovation in the sector was hyperactive capitalism — intense competition between the dozens of manufacturers — rather than anti-competitive subsidies.

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5

How to invest in climate-fighting AI

Investors are lining up to invest in software startups that use AI to accelerate the energy transition. The venture firm Blackhorn closed its third fund today, at $150 million, with a plan to bring the next generation of powerful emissions-cutting software to market. The rise of AI has coincided with a long-overdue push by many industrial facility operators — factories, power plants, trucking fleets — to digitize their operations. That means there’s a vast wealth of underutilized data that could hold significant opportunities for decarbonization, Blackhorn partner Micah Kotch said.

“Our thesis is really built on the notion of unlocking that data layer,” Kotch said. Not to mention, investors in venture firms across the board “are absolutely looking for additional exposure to AI wherever there’s a defensible use case,” he said.

Blackhorn has previously backed startups that do things like using large language models to convert field reports from grid technicians into actionable data, use generative AI to design more energy-efficient circuit boards, and parse drone footage for signs of malfunctioning grid hardware. AI is increasingly commonplace among power utilities; the next sectors Kotch thinks could see a major benefit from new AI applications are construction and logistics. Solving climate change will eventually require a lot more novel hard tech to get built at commercial scale. But that will take years. “To buy ourselves time,” Kotch said, “there’s a whole lot more we can do to get to net zero by deploying existing digital technologies.”

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Power Plays

New Energy

Fossil Fuels

Finance

  • Out of $87 billion in investment funds in Europe that carry an ESG label, $18 billion is invested in oil companies and other top polluters. Weak regulations allow financial firms to mislead climate-minded investors, some advocates say; banks and asset managers say investing in dirty sectors is necessary to clean them up.

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RITZAU SCANPIX via Reuters
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One Good Text

Benjamin Teuber, managing director and game designer for Catan. The latest version of the board game, New Energies, was released this month.

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