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France’s Macron scrambles to rally voters after the far right takes a commanding lead in the electio͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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July 1, 2024
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Flagship

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The World Today

  1. Far right leads in France
  2. Biden campaign stands firm
  3. Earliest major hurricane
  4. Brazil fire record
  5. US, China energy boosts
  6. China rare-earth grab
  7. Moscow exerts control
  8. SAfrica coalition deal
  9. Lonely tennis pros
  10. Hijab heavy metal

The London Review of Substacks, and Flagship recommends a book series about the Napoleonic Wars, except with dragons.

1

Macron looks to block Le Pen

Stephane Mahe, Yves Herman/Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron’s party urged voters to block Marine Le Pen’s National Rally after the far-right grouping secured a thumping first-round election victory. Macron’s party finished third and is now considering whether to ally with left-wing rivals to fence Le Pen’s candidates out in the second round. Markets reacted with relief, with traders apparently viewing Le Pen as unlikely to win a majority. Macron now faces “a bitterly painful choice,” Politico wrote: Try to keep Le Pen from power, or salvage his husk of a party. The result also makes clear that the “cordon sanitaire” keeping far-right parties from power across Europe may have done more harm than good, Martin Sandbu wrote in the Financial Times.

For more on the world’s most interesting and important elections, check out Semafor’s Global Election Hub. →

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2

Party, family urge Biden not to quit

Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters

Senior Democrats rallied around US President Joe Biden after polls suggested his floundering debate performance shook voters’ confidence in him. The president’s family urged him to continue despite calls for him to quit, and party figures including ex-President Barack Obama offered support. In The New Yorker, Jay Caspian Kang laid out the case for keeping Biden: “The backup quarterback is the most popular man in town,” he wrote, and the Democrats lack good alternatives. Still, as Semafor’s Benjy Sarlin notes today, “there’s a visible split between those backing him enthusiastically and others now speaking in conditionals.” The debate raised anxieties in Europe over a second Donald Trump presidency: One former Italian prime minister called for the Democrats to “change horses.”

For more on the post-debate landscape, subscribe to Semafor’s daily US politics newsletter. →

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3

Beryl is earliest major hurricane ever

People prepare ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Beryl, in Cancun. Paola Chiomante/Reuters

Hurricane Beryl, expected to make landfall in the Caribbean this morning, is the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record. The storm picked up speed on Sunday morning, taking only 42 hours to strengthen from a tropical depression to a major, “extremely dangerous” hurricane — storms have only gathered speed that fast six times before in the Atlantic, and never before September. No hurricane east of the Lesser Antilles islands has reached Category 4 in June. The US National Hurricane Center warned that Beryl was “forecast to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge,” with winds of 130 mph. Record warm ocean temperatures are pushing more energy into the storm, and are expected to cause an unusually busy hurricane season.

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4

Record-breaking Brazil fires

Ueslei Marcelino/Reuters

​​The number of fires in Brazil’s Pantanal wetlands has already broken records despite the fact that the fire season hasn’t officially started. “We are facing one of the worst situations ever seen,” the country’s environment minister said. In recent months, Brazil has been hit by a cycle of erratic weather, including devastating floods that have displaced thousands and historic droughts that have parched swaths of the Amazon. Now experts are forecasting 2024 could be one of the driest years on record in Brazil. “Brazil needs a strategy not only for fires but for other crises: floods, water supply, rising sea levels,” the head of the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources told Folha de S.Paulo.

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5

Energy boosts for China, US

Energy production in the US exceeded consumption by record amounts in 2023. The US has traditionally been an energy importer, but the shale boom and the green transition have boosted homegrown production — energy output grew 4% last year to a record high, the Energy Information Administration said. Meanwhile, consumption fell by 1%, driven especially by a fall in coal demand. Elsewhere, China is on course to meet its 2030 renewable energy targets by the end of this year, according to the state-owned China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute: The country added nearly 300 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity in 2023, boosting its total by close to 50%.

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6

China tightens grip on rare earths

China explicitly declared that rare-earth resources belonged to the state, its latest move to consolidate control over minerals needed for the green energy transition. The announcement came after Beijing this year placed restrictions on the exports of gallium and graphite, which are key to the manufacture of semiconductors and electric vehicles, respectively. China is locked in a race with Western powers to secure access to such resources, and has a particularly strong hold over rare earths, accounting for about 60% of their production, and 90% of their refining. With tensions rising between the two sides, the US and European Union have separately sought to diversify their procurement of rare earths, as well as other minerals.

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7

Russia expands ‘passportization’

Alina Smutko/Reuters

Ukrainians in Russian-occupied land today faced a grim deadline as part of Moscow’s efforts to exert control over the territories. They must either obtain a Russian passport — and risk being forced to join the invader’s armed forces on the front lines — or refuse, the penalties for which include potentially being separated from their children, being deported, or losing access to basic services. “Every passport and birth certificate issued makes it harder for Ukraine to reclaim its lost land and children, and each new citizen allows Russia to claim a right — however falsely — to defend its own people against a hostile neighbor,” the Associated Press noted.

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Live Journalism

Join Semafor on July 10 in Washington DC for an in-depth discussion on fostering a regulatory environment that supports innovation while ensuring financial stability and security with policymakers and industry leaders.

RSVP for in-person or livestream access here.

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8

South Africa’s new coalition

South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa unveiled a new coalition government that for the first time in three decades will include ministers from parties other than the African National Congress. The ANC was forced into a government of “national unity” after it failed to secure a parliamentary majority for the first time since the end of apartheid. The coalition, however, has already been beset by infighting: Last week Ramaphosa accused the leader of the pro-business Democratic Alliance of attempting to create a “parallel government.” Those fractures have in turn worried investors, whom Pretoria will have to woo back if it wants to reduce the country’s 33% unemployment rate.

For more news from Africa, subscribe to Semafor’s thrice-weekly newsletter. →

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9

Tennis’ forgotten lower-ranked pros

Paul Childs/Reuters

Wimbledon, the third tennis Grand Slam of the year, opens today. The world’s biggest stars will be playing — defending men’s singles champion Carlos Alcaraz will begin on Centre Court. But the former tennis pro Conor Niland wrote in The Guardian of the loneliness of the journeyman, desperately battling to get out of the lower tiers, one’s world ranking determining their social status, those ranked further down ignored by others higher up. The slog is continuous: “It was my 24th match in five weeks,” he wrote of a semifinal he lost at a not-very-prestigious tournament in Edinburgh. “Exhausted, I collected my prize money: $480, before 20% tax.”

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10

Hijab metallers rock Glastonbury

Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana/Reuters

Voice of Baceprot, a hijab-wearing Indonesian heavy metal band, was the surprise hit of Glastonbury, one of Europe’s biggest music festivals. The three teenagers were one of the few metal bands at this year’s festival, according to Louder, but “an impressively large and intrigued” crowd witnessed a “fantastically powerful, and often genuinely moving, set of passionate old school metal.” Also breaking up Glastonbury’s usual array of aging rock bands were K-pop giants Seventeen, the second-biggest-selling act of 2023 behind Taylor Swift, and a stage dedicated to South Asian music. Festivalgoers were also given the comfort blanket of watching Coldplay headline for the fifth time.

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Flagging
  • The United Nations concludes talks in Doha with Afghanistan’s Taliban government.
  • Former Donald Trump adviser Steve Bannon reports to prison to serve a four-month sentence for contempt of Congress.
  • Mount Fuji’s climbing season opens in Japan.
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LRS

Tears of a clown

The trick of great teaching, of all communication, is letting the listener think that they are uncovering the information themselves. People know to look beyond surface appearances to the “true” level below — so commercial art and TV and the news often hide what it wants you to believe one level down, with “the making of,” “behind the scenes,” or “leaked documents” material. That, at least, is the thesis of the anonymous writer behind The Last Zealot. And that model explains, they say, why Jon Stewart is such a masterful communicator, or — if you are feeling less charitable — propagandist.

Stewart, for 16 years the host of US late-night talk program The Daily Show, is a comedian. But he was also the most trusted newscaster in America. His secret is “that he’s not a master pundit; he’s a master pundit in a jester outfit.” He can jump between cynical comedy and earnest advocacy, the latter providing cover for the former: When he is earnest, it’s a “gut punch: he does care! He’s not a cynic because he doesn’t care, he’s a cynic because he cares too much!” Other communicators switch between two modes like this, and “they all have the same goal: get you to believe that they believe. Appear authentic.” But Stewart “is the best at it and seeing him switch back and forth with such ease is a treat.”

Naval gazing

China has stepped up its shipbuilding at an astonishing rate. The China State Shipbuilding Corporation is now the world’s biggest shipbuilder, and accounts for more than two-fifths of worldwide production. Much of that is commercial — passenger ships and cargo — but passenger ships have military uses; The Queen Elizabeth II acted as a troopship in the Falklands War. And anyway, much of it is not. Of the 50 destroyers in active service with the Chinese navy, 37 have been commissioned since 2010.

Beijing’s goal is, at least in part, to build sufficient naval capacity to invade Taiwan, and deter the US Navy, writes the superforecaster Jonathon Kitson. The US should be worried: “It is deeply unlikely that any European nation would send forces to defend Taiwan” should Beijing make a move, and South Korea and Japan are trying to make up lost ground in shipbuilding but are way behind. China’s progress is somewhat hindered by corruption and a poorly trained naval corps, but the US lacks both “time and political urgency to significantly increase its naval forces,” and will likely have to focus on lower-cost options for deterrence.

Positive pressure

You may occasionally be told to “stay positive,” or to “look on the bright side”; you may occasionally be reminded that other people have it worse, or that things happen for a reason. The novelist Jake Seliger, who is dying of cancer — his wife Bess appeared in last week’s Substack review — understandably feels ambivalent about what he calls “positivity culture.” “Look, I like optimism,” he writes. “Being around optimists is often more fun than being around dour pessimists. I just don’t want optimism to bleed into folly or inanity.”

Too often, those pitching positivity to him have “a kind of self-interest lurking in the pitch. Most of us prefer to hang out with someone who’s upbeat.” But real friendships aren’t only about happy times, but about “what happens during difficulty, strife, and inconvenience.” And often things happen for no reason and impart no lessons: “I’ve learned nothing from having cancer or losing my tongue, apart from the obvious, like ‘both suck.’”

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Semafor Recommends

Temeraire by Naomi Novik. Fans of Patrick O’Brian’s Aubrey/Maturin series — about the Napoleonic Wars, and focused on the friendship between a ship’s captain and his surgeon — would do well to read Naomi Novik’s nine-book series, starting with 2006’s Temeraire. Like O’Brian’s work, it is set in the great European wars of the early 19th century, and at its heart is a friendship between a warrior and his inquisitive, oddly innocent companion, a black dragon called Temeraire. Reviewing the last book in 2016, NPR noted that for all its “epic bombast and spectacle,” the series is fundamentally about “simple notions of friendship and loyalty.”

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