Flagship

UK’s momentous vote

Britain’s opposition Labour Party is expected to win an overwhelming majority in elections today, but analysts questioned how much immediate change even a thumping victory will deliver. A final pre-election YouGov poll indicated Labour would win two-thirds of seats in the House of Commons with the ruling Conservatives falling to a record low number, yet on key issues — including taxes and spending — Labour has pledged to maintain government policy, a bid to burnish its economic credentials which suggests no major policy shifts are imminent. Keir Starmer, the presumptive next prime minister, also ruled out Britain rejoining the European Union within his lifetime while a former European Commission president told Politico a reunion was unlikely for “a century or two.”

Markets bet on Trump

Financial markets and overseas leaders appeared to take more seriously the prospect of Donald Trump’s return to the White House in light of US President Joe Biden’s flailing reelection campaign. Investors, apparently betting that Trump’s economic agenda — featuring heavy tax cuts — could drive inflation and widen budget deficits, sold US government bonds and bought the dollar. “There have been some pretty big bets that have been placed,” one broker told The Wall Street Journal. Abroad, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Bloomberg in an interview that Trump “should tell us today” what his much-touted plan to quickly end the war with Russia would be: “If there are risks to Ukrainian independence,” Zelenskyy said, “we want to know.”

NATO faces Trump past and future

The outgoing NATO secretary-general said the bloc was “much stronger” than a decade ago ahead of a summit next week. In 2014, just three states apart from the US spent 2% of GDP on defense — now, 23 do. That may be partly due to Donald Trump, who at the 2018 summit threatened to take Washington out of the alliance if members did not honor commitments, giving European leaders what the Financial Times described as a “mass bollocking,” or severe dressing-down. NATO officials “despair at the prospect” of a Trump sequel, the FT reported, but it looks increasingly likely, and Politico said that the former US president’s allies are already considering a “radical reorientation” of the organization, putting much more weight on Europe.

Beryl hits Jamaica

Hurricane Beryl hit Jamaica after killing at least seven people and causing extensive damage in the southeast Caribbean. Beryl is the most powerful storm ever to make landfall this early in hurricane season, having picked up speed and power at unprecedented speed from the Atlantic’s unusually warm waters. Although Jamaica received what Sky News called “a glancing blow” rather than a direct hit, residents described roofs being torn from houses and trees thrown into the road. Some of Jamaica was without power and part of the roof of Kingston’s international airport was peeled off by the wind. Climatologists think Beryl portends an intense hurricane season to come, driven by climate change and natural variation.

Geothermal startup signs California deal

A geothermal energy startup signed a deal to provide power for the equivalent of 350,000 homes in Southern California. Traditional geothermal energy systems only work in places with heat near the surface and permeable rock to get water through. “Enhanced” systems pump water deep underground, fracturing the rock to make it permeable and allowing them to work almost anywhere. Fervo Energy demonstrated “commercial scale” energy production last year in Nevada: Now, a California utility company has signed them up for a 15-year deal. Geothermal energy, like solar and wind, is zero-carbon, but is not dependent on weather and runs constantly, providing an energy baseload when other resources are limited.

China’s new green focus

Chinese authorities — whose interventions and support have driven the country’s dominance of a swath of green technologies — announced an upgraded focus on sustainable aviation fuels. The new research and standard-setting organization unveiled by Beijing comes with China expected to soon outline new policies on the use of SAF which, given the size of the country’s aviation sector, could drive huge investment in the industry, Reuters reported. The fuels, typically made with renewable waste or residues, are key to cutting emissions from the aviation sector but estimates vary wildly over how much headway they will make in the coming years: BloombergNEF projects that SAF could account for between 5% and 71% of total aviation fuel demand by 2050.

Hamas, Israeli generals want truce

Hamas and Israeli generals are both keener on a Gaza ceasefire than Israel’s government. Israel faces a war with Hezbollah on its northern border, and military leaders want a truce in Gaza to allow them to prepare for that potential conflict: The New York Times reported that generals believe they can “go back and engage Hamas militarily in the future,” but are not convinced the goals of defeating the militant group and rescuing hostages are compatible. Meanwhile, Hamas sent “ideas” for a ceasefire to Qatari mediators, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes a truce that leaves Hamas in power would collapse his uneasy coalition and said the war would end “only after we have achieved all of its objectives.”

Kenya shelves politician pay rises

Kenyan authorities reversed course on planned pay rises for cabinet members and lawmakers in the face of nationwide protests. The demonstrations had been triggered by a finance bill — since abandoned — that raised taxes to address a deepening economic crisis, but have since broadened to include frustration over corruption and security-force impunity. The proposals to increase salaries for top politicians sparked renewed uproar given government claims of financial shortfalls. “Whereas in the past, leadership was about service,” Kenya’s Nation wrote in an editorial, “today, it seems to be an avenue to wealth, with massive salaries and allowances.”

Cavendish wins record Tour stage

Britain’s Mark Cavendish won a record-breaking 35th Tour de France stage. The veteran cyclist equalled the Belgian legend Eddy Merckx’s total in 2021, and was expected to go on to take the outright record, but depression, injuries — including a broken collarbone in 2023 — and a knifepoint robbery left him stuck on 34. He had said last year would be his final Tour, but returned one more time to try to gain the crucial final stage win. Cavendish is known as a sprinter, making his victory at Saint Vulbas — a stage with over 3,600 meters (11,800 feet) in climbing — all the more remarkable: A former teammate said his achievement “is not just going down in cycling history but sporting history.”

Catering for Olympians

The Olympic Village will provide 3 million bananas for athletes during the Paris Games this summer. The 15,000 competitors will all need feeding, and the Village’s director told Eater that the menu will have “an emphasis on French food” with over 550 products in its recipes. But meals will also be focused on what athletes need: “We have 32 sports, so you have 32 different ways of eating.” Private chefs are banned in the Village, but different national delegations have different demands: The US team in particular was “extremely vocal about what they want. They were more picky and sensitive about having a lot of gluten-free items,” while the Australians brought their own barista. And bananas “are an athlete’s favorite thing.”

• Slovakia’s new president meets his Polish counterpart in Warsaw.
• Campaigning officially opens for Venezuela’s upcoming presidential elections.
• Day two of the BMW International Open golf tournament in Munich.

With the news that Rudy Giuliani was disbarred in New York for wrongdoing during Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign, Semafor’s Business & Finance Editor Liz Hoffman asked Jim Stewart — whose 1991 book Den of Thieves heavily features Giuliani, then the US Attorney prosecuting Michael Milken and an insider-trading ring on Wall Street — for his thoughts.

Killing Thatcher by Rory Carroll. Based on more than 100 interviews with former Irish Republican Army members, police detectives, politicians, and bomb disposal experts, this account of the IRA’s plot to assassinate British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in 1984 combines meticulous historical journalism with the “steady, accumulative thrust of a police procedural drama,” The Guardian said. Subplots include meetings with Boston gangsters and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi, but one overarching theme is that “[w]hen you set off a bomb, you don’t always know where the roof is going to cave in,” as The New Yorker’s Amy Davidson Sorkin wrote.

• The AI industry starts to focus on a potential Trump presidency.
• Utility stocks are Wall Street’s secret backdoor to AI.
• It’s a very strange time to be Bernie Sanders.